Every Monday, Last Word on Hockey will survey the Fantasy Hockey landscape and select a handful of players to assist in your weekly match. We will attempt to select “Studs” who may be available in your league as opposed to who we know are already owned by other teams. The “Duds” will most certainly be taken and will serve as a warning when you have “who do I start/sit” questions. The “Sleepers” will be almost exclusively available in most leagues. We will also attempt to have a mix of players that will apply to traditional leagues as well as banger leagues. All ownership numbers are based on Sunday research and may be slightly different at the time of publication. Here are our selections for Week 10:
2022-23 Fantasy Hockey Studs, Duds, and Sleepers: Week 10
Studs
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
RNH is off to a career pace for the Edmonton Oilers. There is every reason to believe he will eclipse 30 goals for the first time in his career. His production of 16:39 is more than four minutes better than his best, which was his 2011-12 rookie campaign. The fantasy hockey value is only getting stronger. The last four games have provided four goals, four assists, and five power play points. The reason to be optimistic that this continues is in his possession numbers. At even strength, Nugent-Hopkins leads all Edmonton forwards in FF%. The success may be from a coaching staff that has figured out his value comes from sheltered minutes. He currently is seeing only 13.9 minutes per game at even strength, his second lowest number of his career.
Fantasy hockey owners will get the bonus game this week. The Oilers have four games this week, and all against struggling teams. Only one team ranks in the top half defensively, and two teams are in the bottom three. The power play points should also continue to pile up. The number one ranked Oilers will face four teams in the bottom half on the kill. Included in that are the worst two teams thus far. Nugent-Hopkins is averaging 4.2 minutes of power play time on the top unit. Special teams alone should give fantasy hockey owners joy heading into week 10. At 90% ownership in both ESPN and Yahoo leagues, he is there for somebody to snag.
Nazem Kadri
It does not appear that Kadri is going to be the point-per-game player he was last season, but he is getting hot. Currently leading the Calgary Flames in goals and power play points, Kadri is providing excellent fantasy hockey value. The last four contests, he has three goals, two assists, and three power play points. What is interesting about Kadri though is how the offense has added up. He leads all Calgary forwards in even strength ice time and oZS%. Yet his relative possession numbers are all negative. This is leading to a lot of 5 v 5 play in close situations. Half of Kadri’s goals have come in this situation, and that could have huge implications this week.
Another skater who will play four games this week for fantasy hockey owners. All four opponents are bottom eight in goals allowed per game. Calgary can also be a bit leaky, which could lead to some high scoring affairs. Statistically, that would be ideal for fantasy hockey owners of Kadri. Even if that does not pan out, he leads the Flames in power play goals and points. Three of the four opponents are the three worst penalty killing teams in the league. There is ample opportunity for Kadri to give you an incredible week. At roughly 90% ownership in both leagues, some of you can grab him now before your opponent realizes the value for this week.
Duds
Ilya Sorokin
It has been rough lately for Sorokin. He is still an upper tier goalie option for fantasy hockey owners, but there is some cause for caution. Sorokin has lost his last four starts and has surrendered eight goals the last two games to bottom third offenses. Meanwhile, his counterpart Semyon Varlamov is a perfect 3-0 with a shutout during that stretch. There is no goalie controversy with the New York Islanders, but they could choose to play the hot hand. Even if they do not, fantasy hockey owners should be very cautious with starting him this week.
All three games for the Islanders this week are on the road. Sorokin has a considerably worse GAA and save percentage away from home. That does not bode well for facing two of the best scoring teams in the league in the Boston Bruins and Vegas Golden Knights. If he starts two games, he will draw one if not both of these opponents. The third game is against the Arizona Coyotes which would be a favorable matchup. If the Islanders give that start to Varlamov though, it is highly possible Sorokin could see his losing streak hit five or six games. Be very cautious about starting him over another goalie on your roster.
Mark Stone
Stone is doing the right things for the Pacific Division leading Golden Knights. Yet, as we have seen in the past, this does not always translate to fantasy hockey value. A mere three assists in his last eight outings, one power play point, and little to no banger value should have you starting him sparingly. After a four-game stretch in mid-November where he tallied five goals, he has not found the back of the net since. Subtracting those, he has four goals in the other 25 games and none on the power play. Moreover, he has a mere three total power play assists while averaging 2.8 minutes per game. From a fantasy hockey perspective, he has not had much value.
This week could help him break out in the later games. The Chicago Blackhawks are bottom third in goals allowed, and the previously mentioned Islanders will depend on which goalie they start. The first game of the week against the Winnipeg Jets, the fourth best defense, should be an automatic sit. Stone has also seen a game this season against Chicago and had no points in over 20 minutes of ice time. He is heavily rostered in both ESPN and Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues. A lot of you will have decisions to make here, and sitting him is probably your best bet.
Sleepers
Viktor Arvidsson
Arvidsson is a sneaky sleeper that could surprise many owners this week. He is currently leading the Los Angeles Kings in power play points, for starters. He has already tied his career high in power play goals as well. As of late, Arvidsson has five goals, three assists, and five power play points in his last eight games. The additional fantasy hockey value has come with consistency. Since opening the season with no points in the first five games, he has not gone consecutive games without a point. Arvidsson has been great value as a depth fantasy hockey player, and this week could be big.
Three games for the Kings this week. The bookend games will be against bottom seven teams in goals allowed, and one bottom five penalty kill. The middle game is against the top defensive team the Boston Bruins. However, that game is on the road for Arvidsson. So far this season, he is nearly a point per game player away from home. That is far and away better production than his home splits. There is a great chance for him to get a point in all three games. Ownership is going up fast, but he is still widely available. If you have space, this is a great sleeper pick.
Alexander Barabanov
It gets more difficult to find sleepers that we have not highlighted as the weeks roll on. We dug deep on this one, and he might surprise you. Barabanov is on pace to shatter his career highs in essentially every category. He currently co-leads the San Jose Sharks in power play points with nine. In all situations, Barabanov is fifth on the Sharks in total points. While he has not scored in his last seven games, he has added six assists, four of those on the power play. The Sharks do not struggle to score, especially lately, and that should continue this week.
Three games this week, all against bottom third defensive teams. Two of his opponents are bottom ten on the penalty kill. There is great fantasy hockey value here. While some split stats can be arbitrary, there is an odd one to watch for. Barabanov will play two games versus division rivals. That happens to be his best splits at over a point per game. It was also his best splits last season. Barabanov is essentially unowned in both ESPN and Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues. If you have an underperformer or an injury to cover for, this pickup could pay huge dividends.
Have a fantasy question? Have a Mailbag idea you would like to see deeper analysis on? Follow me on Twitter @GromJoshua, or leave a comment for me below.
The @EdmontonOilers last 8 GP (6-2-0):
Connor McDavid: 8-11-19
Leon Draisaitl: 8-7-15
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 5-7-12
Zach Hyman: 0-9-9 pic.twitter.com/Bxwzeqp1vG— Bob Stauffer (@Bob_Stauffer) December 12, 2022
