Every Monday, Last Word on Hockey will survey the Fantasy Hockey landscape and select a handful of players to assist in your weekly match. We will attempt to select “Studs” who may be available in your league as opposed to who we know are already owned by other teams. The “Duds” will most certainly be taken and will serve as a warning when you have “who do I start/sit” questions. The “Sleepers” will be almost exclusively available in most leagues. We will also attempt to have a mix of players that will apply to traditional leagues as well as banger leagues. All ownership numbers are based on Sunday research and may be slightly different at the time of publication. Here are our selections for Week 4:
Studs
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins
Fantasy owners are starting to overlook RNH’s 11-goal season in 2021-22, and rightfully so. The cautious optimism began when he tallied in back-to-back games in mid-October. After that, he scored three more goals and added three assists, with four of those points on the power play in four games last week. Two of those goals were also game-winners. He shows up when the game is on the line. Add in top-line power play minutes with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, and there is every reason to think Nugent-Hopkins is returning to his 20-goal production.
ESPN Fantasy Hockey has him as the fourth-ranked player for his position. This of course means his ownership is on the rise. But he is available in some leagues, with ESPN ownership at 84% and Yahoo ownership at 87%. There is reason for a “pump the brakes” attitude this week. The Edmonton Oilers will play three games this week. All three teams are top half in goals allowed, and top ten in penalty kill. One of those teams, however, happens to be the league’s most penalized team the Dallas Stars. All three games will be at home as well. He will get his chances on the power play and favourable assignments at 5v5. Not a bad move to get him now while you can.
Erik Karlsson
Our first addition of a defenseman and most likely a shock at who it is. The San Jose Sharks are not good, but that does not take away from Karlsson’s value. He leads the team in points, ice time, and Corsi for at 5v5 by a considerable margin. Even more mouthwatering to fantasy hockey owners is his deployment. With an oZS% of 64%, Karlsson is going to keep getting chances to produce. His last four games have produced six points, two game-winners, and an impressive 18 shots on goal. If he can stay healthy, which has been an issue, Karlsson is on pace to get back to his 50–60-point seasons.
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And this week is a good time to continue with that. The Sharks will play three games this week and all three at home. Two of those will be against the only team lower than them in the division standings, the struggling Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks give up over four goals per game and have the 31st-ranked penalty kill. If there ever was a time for the Sharks to figure out their power play, this week is it. Karlsson is quarterbacking the top unit and does lead the team in power-play points. There is strong potential for Karlsson to continue his successful start. He is owned by 74% and 81% by ESPN and Yahoo fantasy hockey leagues. That number has risen considerably in the last week. Go get him if he is there.
Duds
John Klingberg
Speaking of defensemen…ouch. A two-assist opening night had many believing Klingberg was ready for a return to his previous offensive glory. Zero points since then in seven games, all losses for the Anaheim Ducks, and this belief is now waning. Klingberg and defensive partner Cam Fowler produce the worst Corsi Against on the team, a negative Corsi For and Fenwick For relative to the team, and just two points combined at even strength. All in all, they just don’t possess the puck. The only thing Klingberg has provided for fantasy owners is hits. That’s a generous comment; he has three of those in the last four games.
If Klingberg can overcome this abysmal start, it will happen this week or probably not at all. Anaheim will play four games this week, and all against teams that struggle to keep the puck out of the net. Two of those are against the San Jose Sharks, although both of those games are in San Jose. Regardless of what building the game is in, if Klingberg has not already lost your confidence, another bad week should do it.
Andrei Vasilevskiy
I will be the first to admit that goalies are a mixed bag in fantasy hockey. Some fantasy owners will ride one stud all season while others will run the merry-go-round approach based on favourable matchups. I’ve never seen one approach be measurably better than the other. However, when a goalie who started the season ranked in the top 10 pre-draft and currently sits in the mid 200’s, something must be said. His last four starts have provided two wins, so on its face isn’t awful. The underlying numbers are the concern. In three of those contests his save percentage was well below 90%. Those games were against struggling teams as well.
So, why is Vasilevskiy less dominant than in recent memory? Simply put, he was exposed in last year’s playoffs as having trouble with shots placed high glove. Shooters have taken notice, and the “you must elevate to accumulate” adage is being deployed. The Tampa Bay Lightning will play three games this week and Vasilevskiy should get two of those starts. It really won’t matter who he draws either, as all three teams are top 13 in goals scored, two of them top five. Safe to say there are snipers coming his way.
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Time to Panic?
In the case of Vasilevskiy, probably not. Again, the strategy of how to deploy goalies in fantasy hockey has never been the difference in winning or losing your league. But it can be the difference on a weekly basis, and this week is one of those. He is virtually 100% owned in both Yahoo and ESPN fantasy hockey leagues. Should he be? Probably. Should he be off limits to dropping for other skaters/goalies? No.
As for Klingberg, the answer is yes, and owners are taking notice. There is nothing that screams this defensive pairing of him and Fowler will produce meaningful results for fantasy owners. As such, his ownership in both leagues is on the decline. Perhaps these owners are not aware of the favourable matchups Klingberg will have this coming week which could be a mistake. It would not be the wrong move to keep him for one last run to see what he can get you. Also not wrong to be done with the experiment and go grab another player. It would be wrong, however, to keep him after this week if he produces no offence yet again.
Sleepers
Chandler Stephenson
The hot start for the Vegas Golden Knights coincides with Stephenson’s production. Currently leading the team in points at even strength and total faceoff win percentage, there is potential for him to have a career year. The faceoff dominance is partly the reason for his dZS being 57% which makes leading the team in even strength points even more compelling of this. His last four games have produced three goals, an assist, two game-winners, and also more value for banger leagues with eight hits. He is also on a five-game point streak. It’s almost silly to call him a sleeper, but there is great reason for this.
Stephenson is currently owned by only 60% and 64% in Yahoo and ESPN fantasy hockey leagues, respectively. In Yahoo’s case, that number jumped 23% in the last day. This coming week, Vegas plays three games as they begin a road tour of the Northeast. All three teams rank mid-pack in goals allowed. Two of them rank bottom six in penalty kill percentage. Stephenson is averaging 2.6 minutes a game on the power play. There is every reason to believe the point streak can continue and you will receive some power play bonus points. Widely available, it would be wise to change that in your league if he is there.
Max Domi
For a team in a rebuilding phase, the Chicago Blackhawks are playing fairly decent hockey. Yet, their success is not so much at even strength. Their offence is coming from their fifth-ranked power play, and this is where Domi is providing great fantasy value. His career high for power-play goals came in his best statistical season in 2018-19 with the Montreal Canadiens. That was only four. So far this season he has three. Domi should absolutely demolish his career high here, providing excellent fantasy value. In his last five games, he has produced three goals, and three assists, with three of those points on the power play.
As of Saturday, Domi was owned by a mere 5% of Yahoo fantasy hockey owners. As of Sunday, that number is at 38%. In ESPN leagues, his ownership is at 17% which is double what it was the day previous. Seems fantasy players are starting to understand the value he provides. Chicago will play three games this week, and two of those teams rank bottom third on the penalty kill. He has a golden opportunity to break his career high in power-play goals and we aren’t even at the quarter mark yet. Chances are he is available in your league. For leagues with the power play point bonus, here is a golden opportunity for you to boost your chances to win week four.
Have a fantasy question? Have a Mailbag idea you would like to see a deeper analysis on? Follow me on Twitter @GromJoshua or leave a comment for me below.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins becomes the 9th player in #LetsGoOilers history to score 200 goals. He needs 10 more to pass Paul Coffey for 8th in franchise history. pic.twitter.com/RtIq3L16vO
— Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) October 27, 2022
