If the Toronto Maple Leafs are to succeed next season, Rasmus Sandin must become an effective, full-time NHL player. At the time of writing, the former 29th overall pick isn’t that, nor does the hockey world quite know how to measure what ‘success’ means in Kyle Dubas-land.
Let’s start with Sandin, who is likely to start next season on Toronto’s bottom pair.
The left-shot Swede was selected in the first round of the 2018 NHL Entry Draft (Seymon Der-Arguchintsev and Mac Hollowell were the Leafs’ other notable picks that year). Sandin has made it into the big show 42 times since being picked, registering thirteen points (two goals, eleven assists), and ten penalty minutes.
Is Rasmus Sandin ready to step up in Toronto?
Briefly inspecting Sandin’s output goes a long way in explaining his impact in the NHL.
During his two seasons as bit-part Leaf, Sandin has upheld positive Corsi and Fenwick ratings – which, to cut through the jargon, means that Toronto controls the puck better than their opponent whilst he is on the ice. Moreover, the 21-year-old, who spent a season with the Soo Greyhounds back in 2017-18, has started the majority of his shifts for the Leafs in the offensive zone (62.7 percent in 2020-21).
As a result, it is fair to assume that the Uppsala-native is a player that Toronto’s technical staff believe has the upside to develop into an everyday, offensive defenceman in the NHL. And that prediction is well-grounded. According to Hockey Reference, Sandin is currently performing at a 27-point pace over an 82-game season.
Of course, forecasting a player’s production is an imprecise science, especially when the skater in question has only contested 37 regular-season games. However, Sandin’s upside is well-known, he registered 10 points (all of them assists) in 13 playoff appearances for the Marlies in his rookie AHL campaign and continued to produce at a similar rate the following season.
‘A make or break season awaits’
So, what’s the problem? Sandin has grown (in skill and stature) since making his NHL debut aged 19 and earned a spot on the Leafs’ powerplay in round one against the Montreal Canadiens last season.
Evidently, he is a key part of Sheldon Keefe’s plans heading into 2022. Therein lies the issue. Is Sandin ready to be a big piece of the puzzle for an organization that is aiming to make a deep run in the playoffs next season? Is Toronto’s blueline resilient enough to be able to support Sandin’s development while winning enough games to achieve their goals?
Maybe. But possibly not.
At the time of writing, the Maple Leafs’ depth chart looks something like this:
First Line: Nick Ritchie – Auston Matthews – Mitch Marner
Second Line: Michael Bunting – John Tavares – William Nylander
Third Line: Ilya Mikheyev – David Kampf – Alexander Kerfoot
Fourth Line: Pierre Engvall – Jason Spezza – Ondrej Kase
Extra Forwards: Wayne Simmonds, Adam Brooks, Kurtis Gabriel, Nicholas Robertson, Michael Amadio, Joey Anderson
Defence Pair 1: Morgan Rielly – T.J. Brodie
Defence Pair 2: Jake Muzzin – Justin Holl
Defence Pair 3: Rasmus Sandin – Travis Dermott
Extra Defencemen: Carl Dahlstrom, Timothy Liljegren, Alex Biega, Brennan Menell
Goalies: Jack Campbell – Petr Mrazek
Depth Goalies: Michael Hutchinson, Joseph Woll, Ian Scott
You might notice three things about Toronto’s roster: (1) the core four is still intact, (2) the Leafs didn’t lose anyone from their 2020-21 group to expansion, (3) Dubas opted against replacing Zach Bogosian.
Will Dubas’ gamble pay off?
Essentially, the Leafs are rolling back last year’s team with a less experienced blueline and a Zach Hyman-less offence. Thus, Brendan Shanahan’s ‘Shan-plan’ rests on Dubas winning two significant bets: that Toronto’s powerplay is set for a revival and that Bogosian wasn’t the difference-maker in their 2021 defence.
If the Maple Leafs continue to fire blanks on the man-advantage, they will struggle in a stacked Metropolitan Division. If Bogosian was behind Toronto’s defensive improvement, they will be reliant on Sandin making developmental progress to bridge the gap.
As a result, a lot rests on a certain 21-year-old’s shoulders. As his point-scoring rate suggests, Sandin could be the answer (or at least part of it) to Toronto’s powerplay struggles. It’s why he was handed an ill-fated run as the Leaf’s quarterback against the Habs. Likewise, Sandin’s defensive contributions will be vital if the Leafs are to uphold their improvements on the backend from 2018-19.
Don’t be mistaken, Rasmus Sandin’s performances could make or break a decisive season for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
I say he does it.
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