The Seattle Expansion Draft is coming up quickly. Teams have to be cognizant of that when approaching the 2021 NHL Trade Deadline. The Toronto Maple Leafs are in a very different position than when the Vegas expansion draft occurred. Most of their top players were rookies and were exempt from being selected, putting Toronto in an easy position. They do not have that benefit this time. Let’s look at what a protection list could look like for the Toronto Maple Leafs.
Toronto Maple Leafs Potential Protection List For Seattle Expansion Draft
So the rules are the same as the 2017 NHL Expansion Draft. Teams can protect 7 forwards, 3 defencemen, and 1 goalie (7-3-1), or 8 skaters and 1 goalie (8-1). They must also have at least 2 forwards, 1 defenceman, and 1 goalie under contract to expose. The minimum required games for these players will likely be changed due to the shortened season, but it’s something to keep in mind.
This will exclude any pending UFAs, such as Zach Hyman, Frederik Andersen, Jason Spezza, Joe Thornton, etc. This entire list could look different if the Leafs signed a player like Hyman immediately following the deadline.
The “Must Protects”
Auston Matthews
This one is the easiest. It’s Auston Matthews. He’s the league leader in goals and is a top player in the NHL. There is no question that he will be protected. The Toronto Maple Leafs have been waiting years for a player of his calibre, and there would be no way he is exposed going into the expansion draft.
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Mitch Marner
Prior to this season, Marner was looking iffy. With his massive contract after a rough go of negotiations, he wasn’t performing where he needed to for the price. That’s changed since the start of the 2020-21 season. He looks like the Mitch Marner we’ve come to expect, making creative plays, putting up points, and feeding players for easy goals. He’s still just 23 so there is a lot of his prime years still ahead of him.
William Nylander
Often a contentious player amongst Leafs fandom, but Nylander is an incredible young player. He is excellent in so many aspects of his play. Nylander is still young like the other two players mentioned and is capable of driving a line himself. He is a key piece of the Leafs’ core and will be for years to come. He will certainly be protected in the Seattle expansion draft.
The “Likely to be Protected”
John Tavares
Okay, hear me out. The only reason he isn’t in the tier above is the consideration of age. This isn’t a criticism on Tavares’ play since joining the Leafs, because he’s been fantastic. Tavares is 30 years old with another 4 years at $11,000,000. This is the primary thing separating him from the upper tier. With that said, Tavares is a genuine first-line centre on almost any team, and it is very likely he is protected. He scores, he is an incredible player on the power-play, he does what was expected of him when he signed in Toronto.
Jake Muzzin
Jake Muzzin has impressed thoroughly ever since the Leafs acquired him from the LA Kings in January of 2019. He has arguably been the Leafs best defenceman since being added and is exactly what the team needed. He’s tough, throws a big hit when needed, but is also defensively responsible and able to help drive play. He is an all-around player, and the Leafs would be worse off without him.
Morgan Rielly
While Rielly has been disappointing so far this season, he has been a staple of the Leafs blue line for years. Even if Leaf fans are unhappy with him, exposing him in the Seattle expansion draft is not the route. Rielly holds value, and a trade would make the most sense if Rielly isn’t a Leaf next year. He is almost certainly going to be protected. The offence Rielly provides is still incredible for a defenceman, and he provides value for the Leafs.
T.J. Brodie
T.J. Brodie has quickly become a fan favourite due to his incredible defensive play. He is a defensive superstar, able to make the small plays like defending zone entries then making the pass to Rielly to start the breakout. Brodie has especially succeeded with defending 2-on-1s this season. He’s really great at blocking the royal road pass and either breaking up the rush or forcing the puck carrier to shoot. He’s a perfect fit on the Toronto Maple Leafs and has quickly made himself a must-keep.
Jack Campbell
Campbell is the only goaltender that makes sense. Frederik Anderson does not have a contract, and Michael Hutchinson is… well, let’s just say he’s not the goaltender a team is going to protect. Campbell has also become a fan favourite with his personality and for the first capable backup since Curtis McElhinney. He’s under contract for another year after this, and if the Leafs don’t work out their starting goaltending for 2021-22, he could see a bigger role in the future.
The “It’d be Nice if They Could Keep Them”
Alexander Kerfoot
Kerfoot has seen his ups and downs in his short time with the Toronto Maple Leafs. He has had stretches of success and stretches where he seemed like an obvious candidate to trade. Kerfoot finally seems to be finding his groove on the left-wing of Tavares and Nylander. He is responsible defensively for the most part and has shown that he can be effective offensively. He hasn’t had success driving his own third line, however, he can compliment other better players quite well. He’s a player that would be great to keep on the roster but isn’t a detriment if he wasn’t.
Justin Holl
Justin Holl has really stepped up in the 2020-21 season. He began to emerge once Sheldon Keefe took over and began playing with Jake Muzzin. In 2019-20 he seemed to be getting carried to good results by Muzzin, but this season he’s turned things around. Holl, for the better part of the season, has looked like the better defencemen of the two. He defends well at both even strength and short-handed, and, while he may not be a huge point-producing defenceman, he still drives the play well offensively. He has emerged as a fourth candidate for Leafs defensive protection.
Travis Dermott
As much as it pains me, it seems like Dermott will for sure be the odd defenceman out. He is a very strong bottom pairing defenceman that can likely play higher in the lineup. Unfortunately, he has been a casualty of the Leafs building a better blueline. Prior to Justin Holl’s emergence, Dermott likely would’ve been the fourth defenceman that you may consider protecting if one of your other top guys was dealt in a trade. He has the tools to continue to be a very effective defender in the NHL, and it would be nice if the Leafs could keep him.
The “Guaranteed Minimum Exposed”
Michael Hutchinson
This one is the most obvious. The primary reason the Leafs gave Hutchinson a two-year contract in the off-season was likely to provide a goalie to be exposed. Hutchinson has been much better this season than he was last, however. He is an effective third-string goaltender and can tap in for the odd game on a back-to-back if one goalie is injured.
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Final Protected List
I truly think the Leafs will be best off going the 8-1 route. Prior to this season, it was a given that the Leafs would be going with 7-3-1. Since the trades of Kasperi Kapanen and Andreas Johnsson, the Leafs don’t have as many forwards they need to protect.
The final protected list could look something like this:
Auston Matthews
Mitch Marner
William Nylander
John Tavares
Morgan Rielly
Jake Muzzin
T.J. Brodie
Justin Holl
Jack Campbell
This leaves Alexander Kerfoot and Travis Dermott both exposed for Seattle to take. The emergence of Justin Holl this season has moved him to a priority position to protect him. With Dermott and Kerfoot exposed, it would seem like Dermott is the obvious choice for Seattle to pick. He is an RFA, but won’t be likely for a large payday. He’s still a young defenceman that can grow with the team and is very effective in transition. He seems like just the player an expansion team would be looking for. It will be sad for the Leafs to see a player drafted and developed go in the Seattle expansion draft, but that’s just how this goes.
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