The Toronto Maple Leafs first-round pick in the 2018 NHL Entry Draft may not be on the table at this year’s trade deadline. Lou Lamoriello is not here to burn the future for the present like many general managers of the have past tried. However, the Leafs are at a crossroads of sorts. They could stay the course and go into the trade deadline thinking of the future. Or they could go for broke and take a risk for a chance to win now. Rather than trade known commodities like Kasperi Kapanen, the Leafs could use their first-round draft pick to bring in a player for a playoff run.
Trading The Toronto Maple Leafs First Round Pick
What Is It Worth
First round picks quickly lose their value the later in a draft they are slotted. Two late picks are rarely worth one top-five pick. The better a team does in the regular season and the playoffs, the less their picks are worth.
It’s a safe assumption the Leafs will not win the Atlantic division. If they do manage to win it, it will be a herculean effort. One that no one would predict by the February 26th trade deadline. The Leafs are also very likely to play the Boston Bruins and Tampa Bay Lightning in the first two rounds. A conference finals appearance is as unlikely as a conference win. That puts the Leafs first-round pick somewhere between 16th and 23rd in the 2018 Entry Draft. That’s where teams should expect the Leafs to be drafting. The pick could be lower if the Leafs reach the conference final and beyond, but that is unlikely.
What Kind Of Player Could They Draft
Last year, the Leafs drafted Timothy Liljegren with their first-round pick, the 17th overall pick. Many felt he would have gone much earlier in the draft had he not lost much of the previous season to mononucleosis. If Liljegren turns into a top-tier defenseman, it’s not because that’s typical of mid-first round picks. The Leafs may have gotten lucky with their 2017 pick. Although Erik Karlsson went 15th overall in 2008. Being lucky is not unheard of, but it’s not common either.
It’s far more likely that by the time the Leafs draft, most of the impact players will be gone. Some of the players still in play by the time the Leafs pick will be future all-stars. There’s no doubt about that. How to identify them is the problem. It’s a challenge for every team. General managers need to be both educated on the players and lucky to get top end players late in the first round and beyond.
Notable Players Mid-first Round Picks
The past couple years are still up in the air, but a couple of key young players, Mathew Barzal and Brock Boeser were drafted 16th and 23rd respectively in 2015. Dylan Larkin and Kapanen went 15th and 22nd in 2014. Andrei Vasilevskiy went 19th in 2012. Vladimir Tarasenko went 16th in 2010. These are high-end players. But for each one of them, there are five Joey Hishons and Ryan Pulocks.
Teams like the Ottawa Senators and Montreal Canadians should value first round picks outside of the top ten like they’re found money. They need as many tickets in the lottery as they can get to restock empty cupboards. The Leafs aren’t in the same situation.
Value Is Relative
The Leafs already have so many prospects they’re practically giving them away. Nikita Soshnikov was not destined for a top line role with the team, but he had a pretty good shot and played the way Mike Babcock likes his players to play. The Leafs just didn’t have room for him.
Another decent prospect is always welcome, but the Leafs have other needs. They have assets to spare when it comes to good, young players. That includes draft picks that could turn into those players. Converting an unproven, but a high potential asset for a known commodity that fits a place of weakness could be the difference between the Leafs winning a round or two and an early exit in this year’s playoffs.
What’s The Potential Return
The Leafs are short up the middle and on the blue line. A first-round pick alone might not bring back a top pairing defenseman or a reliable centre on its own, but it’s a very good start. The Leafs aren’t going to let a first-round pick go for a rental player either. Considering the Leafs long-term position, they probably aren’t interested in a rental player anyway. Not for a significant piece. They should have a long window of contention ahead of them. They would be better served to look for a player that will fit in with the team now and in the future. That typically costs more than a few loose ends, which is why a first-round pick may come into play.
The Leafs are probably going to lose centres Tyler Bozak and Dominic Moore this off-season. William Nylander may take one of those spots, but there are a lot of reasons to keep him on Auston Matthews wing too. That would leave a hole up the middle. Which is something they can fill now while also ensuring depth at center for this year’s playoffs.
Is The Time Right?
In most years, the trade deadline is not the best time to be a buyer, but the Leafs are going to have to address their needs at centre and defence at some point. The free agent market is usually just as bad a time to be adding players, if not a worse time. Losing a first round pick can hurt if the return doesn’t work out. Signing a long-term expensive contract for a player that’s not meeting expectations is worse. Trading away first-round picks can prevent a team from improving, but it can’t make a team worse. Free agent signings can hold teams back for years if the dollar amount and term don’t match the player’s production.
The Leafs still need to find the right deal. They shouldn’t be looking to add temporary players at a high cost. They are in a position to add a little more in a package for a player that’s going to give them two playoffs at least, with a chance for more. The challenge for Lamoriello is finding that player and then working out a trade that both sides can agree on.
Who fits the Leafs needs is a difficult question. Current rumours include players like Luke Glendening and Mark Letestu. Those players wouldn’t cost too much, but they are also less likely to be impact players. That’s not to say those players wouldn’t be welcome additions, but raising the stakes and offering up more could bring in players that are sure to be impact players. The Leafs could think big and seriously consider trading for a player like Ryan McDonagh, f they’re willing to part with assets that for the past couple years have been untouchable. Like a first round pick.
