Detroit Red Wings Protect or Not to Protect: Gustav Nyquist

Welcome to a new summer series on Last Word On Hockey. In preparation for the NHL Expansion Draft on June 21st, LWOH’s Detroit Red Wings Department will be going in depth on every Wing that is eligible to be picked by the newest NHL squad. The Vegas Golden Knights will begin play in the fall. The team will likely follow the seven-forward, three-defensemen, and one goalie format of protecting players, and this series will follow suit with that. For a brush-up on the expansion draft rules, click this link. Without further adieu, we will continue this series with Red Wings MVP turned regressive goat, Gustav Nyquist.

Gustav Nyquist

Right Wing, Shoots Left
5’11”, 184 lbs
Age: 28 (On September 1st)
Cap hit: $4.75 million, two years remaining

Reasons for Protection

Nyquist should be near the top of general manager Ken Holland‘s priorities for the seven forwards he’s looking to protect. For one, he’s scored more than 25 goals in the league. He has had quite a productive start to his NHL career topping 48 points three times already. Since 2013 when he started playing a prominent role, among current Red Wings that have played 2500 minutes those four seasons, he has the second-lowest Corsi-against per 60 on the squad to Tomas Tatar at 48.64 and the highest on-ice goals-for per 60 as well (2.65). Under Blashill, his raw offensive numbers have regressed a to just a concerning number of 12 goals this past season, but the possession game is still strong.

He places second to Frans Nielsen in Corsi-for per 60 at 53.87 and still holds the highest on-ice goals-for per 60 at 2.72. The decline of the power play hasn’t helped his numbers either. In the two years Blashill’s been at the helm, Nyquist has scored nine goals and 21 man advantage points combined; compared to his 14-goal, 24 power play point campaign in 2014-15. He also had a case of bad luck and a career-worst 7.3% shooting percentage. Gustav Nyquist could be bound for a comeback season next year even if the team isn’t Detroit. That’s another vital reason to protect him, he’s a valuable asset that can play in a team’s top six and could bring back help on the back-end in a trade with preferably a certain West Coast team with a surplus of defensemen facing an expansion draft crisis of their own.

Reasons for Exposing

As mentioned before, Nyquist’s cap coming off the books would be a boon, but does not make much sense given his value in the trade market. Besides, his contract is quite digestible and he’s a very good complimentary player producing on a team that’s starving for highly skilled talent that could elevate compliments like him to another level. There is no reason to expose Nyquist unless the team plans to go all-in on T.J. Oshie or Alexander Radulov this summer, which would not be a quick fix and in fact be prolonging the inevitable rebuild that the general manager apparently doesn’t want to have. The team’s become pretty good at that in the past few years, but doesn’t need it now with progression a true possibility having finally missed the postseason getting that burden off the players’ heads.

Verdict

Protect Him.

Nyquist’s goal total has dropped every season for the past three years, but it’s become a case of finding out he will not be the next Henrik Zetterberg or Pavel Datsyuk a la taking the team’s reigns as a leader from the former. On a team with more skilled centers down the middle for other teams to watch instead of having just one in Zetterberg, Nyquist would probably have more inflated offensive numbers, especially if the team had some sort of direction on their power play. It is clear there is still potential for Nyquist given his track record thus far and he’s a piece Holland can use to bait teams for defensemen while Evgeny Svechnikov and Anthony Mantha take their next steps as the next wingers up. To do this, he must be protected.