“Bad and worse, and worst makes a beggar’s choice.” – George R.R. Martin.
Thomas Chabot Should Crack The Senators Untouchable Defense
Well, the Ottawa Senators find themselves with a beggar’s choice, but bewilderingly, they refuse to experiment. Currently, the Senators have four defenseman that rank in the top 60 for most attempts against per 60 minutes over the last four seasons (minimum 400 minutes played). That’s two-thirds of their blue-line residing in the bottom 20 per cent of the league when it comes to allowing shots attempts against.
It’s a defense that, frankly, comes nowhere near doing its job, and yet when head coach Guy Boucher was asked why first round pick Thomas Chabot couldn’t crack the line-up he perplexingly told the Ottawa Citizen, “He’s kind of stuck in between because the other guys are doing well,” Boucher continued, “If we had guys who were not doing so well, or weaker guys, or he was clearly above some guys, he probably would have had more games and more ice time.”
“If we had guys who were not doing so well,he probably would have had more games and more ice time.”
The overwhelming problem with that statement: it’s just not true. A quick look at even raw CF% shows that two Senators show up in the bottom ten defenseman with at least 50 minutes played: Cody Ceci at fourth last, and Dion Phaneuf at tenth. To reinforce that point, here’s a graph from Sean Tierney. It’s not flattering.
Defense pair shot rates (>50 mins)
Manson/Fowler have been great. Ceci/Phaneuf have been awful.
Larsson/Klefbom make an appearance in good. pic.twitter.com/OFzy7kWBoR— Sean Tierney (@SeanTierneyTss) October 24, 2016
The Sens are, quite literally, icing the worst consistent defensive pairing in the league but according to the head coach that specializes in defense, “Right now, we can’t make people pay when they’re doing well just because you want to give some kid some ice time. It’s about winning. The players on the ice are doing well so he’s got to wait his turn. If he has to wait his turn too much then we’ve got a decision to make.”
It’s concerning for one of two reasons. Either a) Guy Boucher truly believes the Phaneuf-Ceci pairing is performing well enough to justify keeping them together or, b) he doesn’t think they’re doing well but is unwilling to give Chabot a chance. But it’s not just Chabot. The Sens relied on Mike Kostka and Fredrik Claesson for a number of games last season and both proved they could at least be usable, and neither was able to stay up with the team after training camp, despite belief that Claesson could earn a spot with the big club.
If Boucher is unwilling to experiment with the lineup, the fans and management need to take a serious look at the blue line and attempt to sort it out. Pierre Dorion has repeatedly expressed a desire to compete now, and the simple truth is this blue line cannot do that.
Who does Chabot step in for?
Cody Ceci has played 210 NHL games. He is in his fifth season in the league. It’s time to stop asking when he’ll take the next step and start asking if he will take the next step. At 22-years-old, there’s room to grow for the defenseman, but time, and potential trade value ticks down.
Mark Boroweicki is 27-years-old. He is what he is, and he’s not going to change at this point. He’s the 20th worst defenseman among those with at least 400 minutes played over the last four seasons in terms of CF% RelTM. He wouldn’t crack a Stanley Cup winning lineup, so what makes the Senators believe he should be a part of theirs? Between Chris Neil and Zack Smith the team has players who are willing to drop the gloves, but even that is a throwback to another time, and another league. Last year’s Cup winning Penguins only dropped the gloves nine times all season. Neil did it twelve times.
Dion Phaneuf is the other half of the worst pairing the league has to offer and he’s costing the team seven million dollars a season for the next four seasons. Barring a miracle, Phaneuf isn’t going anywhere, and any solution the Sens come up with will have to work around number two.
The Senators blue line needs help, and unless Eugene Melnyk finds a way to clone Erik Karlsson, it’s not coming anytime soon; especially if the Senators continue to be rigid in the way they deploy their defensemen.
At this point the season is still young, the Sens have picked up a couple wins they arguably didn’t deserve, and they’re about to go on a long road trip out-west. If there was ever a time to rotate the defense, to experiment, it’s now.
Main Photo:
