Welcome back to Last Word on Hockey’s Detroit Red Wings Daily Player Previews. In this series, we will be taking a look at who the team rolled out last season, players they acquired in the offseason, and other prospects to look out for while looking at how they all shape up for the upcoming ’16-17 season. Previously on our list, Henrik Zetterberg was our inaugural participant. Today, it’s power-forward Justin Abdelkader.
Justin ABDELKADER
Position/Age:
Left Wing, 29 years old
Contract:
Signed for seven years, $4.25 million AAV
2015-16 Statistics:
19 goals
43 points
155 shots
120 penalty minutes
49.8% Corsi-for percentage (-2.9 relative)
18:26 TOI
Power Play TOI:
235:52 (second on Red Wings, 11th among NHL left wingers)
Six power play goals (third on Red Wings), 13 power play points (seventh)
Penalty Kill TOI:
131:44 (fourth on Red Wings)
Four goals, one point less than ’14-15
Career low in Corsi-for percentage, 6.6% drop from ’14-15
Abdelkader entered last season coming off of an impressive March that saw him score ten goals in 15 games after netting a combined eight in the previous four months. In the end, he ended up with a career high 23 goals and 44 points in just 71 games played while taking on quite an elevated role from the previous season logging 17:55 TOI, a full 2:48 up from ’13-14. In 2015-16, a top six spot was his from the beginning averaging out at 18:26, third among forwards behind Pavel Datsyuk and Zetterberg. While the Michigan State alumnus did enjoy another solid season potting 19 goals and 43 points, like Zetterberg, he’s taking too much of a role that he’s not suited for.
In 11 more games than his career season, he saw a huge drop in his possession numbers individually and overall. Could this have been a product of playing away from Pavel Datsyuk? According to Left Wing Lock, the Dylan Larkin-Zetterberg-Abdelkader line was the top unit in terms of consistency for Jeff Blashill, coming in a 12.94% frequency last season. Compare that to the time he played with Datsyuk (4.79%). In 2014-15, the Arizona Coyotes legend drove possession at a 60.6% clip, including a +9.7 individual relative rating. Abdelkader’s rating that season was 56.4%. There is something to think about for this upcoming season.
Having the Muskegon native as a net-front presence on the man advantage is nice, but Abdelkader wears out his welcome here as well. Six power play goals for a player of his caliber is respectable, but on a team that came in at 23rd overall in terms of goals scored, guys like Tomas Tatar, Gustav Nyquist, and Larkin should be given more of an opportunity this season with John Torchetti taking over as the power play and forwards coach. In 70 minutes less than Abdelkader, Larkin scored four power play goals. Tatar and Nyquist each had more man advantage markers as well, and all combined to drive possession at a 54.3% clip with Tatar leading the way individually with an individual rating of +7.8. One would expect the latter two to have bounce-back campaigns after regressing mightily last season.
Abdelkader is not a bad player by any means, as he could be a candidate to get an “A” on his sweater in the coming years. He’s the go-to physical specimen the Wings have coming in at 6’2″ and 218 pounds, and one has to be pleased with the offensive output he’s been able to provide over the course of the past two seasons. With Datsyuk and Brad Richards both retired, he may be looked at to provide more leadership as he heads into his 30s. The problem here is that this can be provided in a top nine role while Detroit goes younger with guys like Larkin and God-willing Andreas Athanasiou and his 9:01 average TOI last season. With how he’s been valued, however, expect him to be in the top six to start the season, possibly with newcomer Frans Nielsen and captain Henrik Zetterberg.
EXPECTATION:
78 games played
15 goals
41 points
170 shots
132 penalty minutes
50.1% Corsi for percentage
18:10 TOI
5 power play goals
13 power play points
Stay tuned for tomorrow as the series continues with another newcomer, Thomas Vanek.
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