Coming off of an 8-5 season, the Wolfpack are looking to be a top team in the ACC. Most sportsbooks have the NC State win total at six-and-a-half wins for 2023. In 2022, the total was set at eight-and-a-half. A mid-season loss of quarterback Devin Leary impaired the offense and left NC State just short of covering the total.
With a new offensive coordinator in Robert Anae and new signal-caller Brennan Armstrong, the Wolfpack have a very solid chance to win seven or more games this year. That being said, there are causes for concern and a path for the Wolfpack to fall short.
The Case for the Cover: Why NC State Could NOT Win Seven Games
The Wolfpack’s biggest pitfall last season was an offense that struggled to put up points. While the defense remained one of the best in the conference, the injury to Leary caused the offense to falter. Changing both the offensive coordinator and the quarterback leaves the team asking; How will the offense fair?
In addition to the new faces, NC State lost a ton of production. Leading receiver Thayer Thomas graduated while Devin Carter and Demi Sumo transferred away. Keyon Lesane returns to the receiving corps with the most production, but he only amassed 342 yards on 31 receptions. Jordan Houston still leads the backfield after a solid 2022. Houston racked up 544 rushing yards but struggled to get into the endzone with zero rushing touchdowns.
In order to win seven games, the Wolfpack will have to produce more points than they did last year. In 2022, the Wolfpack put up 24.2 points per game. That number will need to increase if the Wolfpack wants to compete against UNC, Clemson, or the rest of the better teams in the conference.
The season opener at UCONN is by no means a pushover. The Pack will travel back home to face Notre Dame in a matchup against a familiar face in Sam Hartman. An 0-2 start could make covering the total much more difficult. The matchup with Clemson mid-season will be a difficult contest, and the rivalry game against UNC and Heisman candidate Drake Maye will require the offense to be firing on all cylinders. If the Wolfpack can’t take a game against Notre Dame, Clemson, or UNC, they are not left with much room for error.
NC State is also notorious for dropping one game each year that it should win. Last year it was Boston College, and in 2021, Miami. A loss to a solid team like Louisville or Wake Forest could hamper the Wolfpack’s chances. The path to six losses would most likely be from Notre Dame, Clemson, UNC, Wake Forest, Miami, and UCONN.
The Case for the Cover: Why NC State Could Win Seven or More Games
Despite having questions on offense, the Wolfpack returns an elite defense. Cornerback Aydan White did not allow a touchdown in coverage last season, and his partner Shyheim Battle is one of the best defensive backs in the ACC. Payton Wilson will lead the linebackers and provide a great pass-rushing threat. This team allowed 19.2 points per game last season, and the standout defense will be paramount to NC State’s win total being higher than six-and-a-half.
On the offensive side, Armstrong was very successful the last time Anae was his coordinator. In 2021, he passed for 4,449 yards and 31 touchdowns. He struggled mightily in 2022, but a reunion with his offensive coordinator could be massive for his production. The Wolfpack bring in talented tight end Javonte Vereen and wideout Kevin Concepcion as freshmen who will have a chance for immediate impact. Both young pass catchers will join Houston and Lesane as key players on this Wolfpack offense that also features a very solid and experienced offensive line.
Despite drawing a fairly difficult schedule, the Wolfpack do have the advantage of playing their hardest games at home. Notre Dame, Clemson, and UNC will all have to travel to Carter-Finley Stadium. In addition, all but three of the Wolfpack’s away games are in North Carolina, meaning that fans will travel well.
One interesting edge that few consider is that the Wolfpack have seen Notre Dame’s Hartman multiple times, and stifled Maye last year. Hartman is especially familiar with the smells of barbecue and the stadium-shaking noise that Wolfpack fans bring to Raleigh. Last season, he threw three interceptions in a loss to the Wolfpack. Maye was limited to one passing touchdown while also throwing a pick the last time he faced NC State. Limiting the good quarterbacks will be key for tallying seven or more wins this season.
NC State will more than likely be favored in eight or nine of its 12 games. While winning all of those games would cover the total, taking a game against Notre Dame or Clemson would all but ensure it. UNC will also be a tough test, but the Wolfpack have had recent success against the rival Tarheels.
The most realistic scenario for the Wolfpack to cover is through Armstrong returning to 2021 form and the defense remaining elite. Best case, the Wolfpack could win 10 or even 11 games and compete in the ACC Championship, but the most likely is a 9-3 season. The Wolfpack will beat UConn, VMI, Duke, Virginia, and Virginia Tech with relative ease. All the team needs to do is find at least two wins against Notre Dame, Marshall, Louisville, Clemson, Wake Forest, Miami, or UNC.
Good Teams Win, Great Teams, Cover. NC State Win Total Prediction
The Wolfpack are in a great position to cover the win total this season. Anae and Armstrong will bring at the least an improvement from the 2022 offense. Tony Gibson’s defense will continue to be one of the best in the conference. It also helps that NC State plays most of its toughest games at home and does not have to travel too far for its away games.
Full Season Prediction: The Wolfpack will win nine games this year. While Notre Dame and Clemson may edge out victories in Raleigh, NC State will easily cover the six-and-a-half number. Even if the team loses their annual game that they shouldn’t, the Wolfpack will take care of business and win at least seven games.
Photo courtesy: Rob Kinnan-USA TODAY Sports
