Over the last three seasons, the Big Ten has owned the College Football Playoff with very little pushback. Michigan, Ohio State, and Indiana brought home the conference’s first three-peat since 1940-1942. Back then, Minnesota claimed the 1940 and 1941 titles, and Ohio State and Wisconsin claimed the 1942 title. Thankfully, the last three seasons have had no co-champions, and those three teams are nearly universally regarded as the best teams of each season.
Since 2014, the Big Ten has taken home four titles (2014, 2023, 2024, and 2025), and Ohio State is one of four programs to win multiple (Alabama, Georgia, and Clemson are the others). In that time, the Buckeyes have made seven CFPs (tied for second-most), Michigan and Oregon have made three, Indiana and Washington have made two, and Michigan State and Penn State have one appearance each. Does Washington count since both were with the Pac-12? That’s a discussion for another day.
Regardless, that leaves 11 Big Ten teams without a CFP appearance. Heading into 2026, what could be the final before a 24-team playoff, which programs, if any, could make it?
Will There Be Any First-Time CFP Appearances From The Big Ten In 2026?
The Big Ten has the second-most games in CFP history with 28 overall. Of course, that does not include when Oregon and Washington made it with the Pac-12. In those 28 matchups, the Big Ten is 16-12, just behind the SEC’s 21-14 mark.
The Best Bets
Heading into the 2026 season, there are six teams with a projected win total of 8.5 or better according to your favorite betting platform. At the top are Indiana and Oregon. Ohio State is sitting at 9.5, with Penn State, USC, and Michigan at 8.5.
All of those teams have made it at least once, except USC. Last year, the Trojans were right there. Realistically, USC was in the conversation up until it ran into Oregon in the penultimate week of the season. Overall, the team was solid. This year, Lincoln Riley’s leash may be as short as any. He was hired to bring the Trojans back to glory, but he’s fallen short.
This year, the Trojans must replace two great receivers, including the Biletnikoff Award winner. This year has to be the year Jayden Maiava takes off at quarterback. He led the Big Ten in passing yards last year, but threw multiple interceptions in three of the team’s four losses. The schedule features games at home against Oregon and Ohio State, plus a trip to Indiana. 10-2 gets the job done. Last year, 9-3 would be pushing it.
The other “best bet,” if there was one, would have to be Iowa. Since 2013, the Hawkeyes have won at least eight games 11 times. Four of those seasons featured double-digit wins. While it may be a meme that the Iowa offense is about as anemic as can be, that defense will continue to be elite under Kirk Ferentz. The Hawkeyes will have to replace Mark Gronowski and his 26 total touchdowns.
If Iowa can get it going with Jeremy Hecklinski, who is nothing like Gronowski, the schedule lines up nicely. The Hawkeyes get Ohio State at home after a trip to Michigan, but the rest of the Big Ten slate is mid-to-bad.
Must Have Marked Improvement
Remember the jump Indiana took from 2023 to 2024? While there isn’t another Curt Cignetti hiding in the middle of the Big Ten, there are a few teams that could make the jump.
Illinois has been close-but-no-cigar over the last two seasons. However, while Bret Bielema’s squad reached the top 10 for the first time since 2001, it was shellacked by Indiana, 63-10. Losing to Indiana and Ohio State is not an issue, but losses to Washington and Wisconsin by multiple scores doomed the Illini.
All of the top Illini running backs are returning behind a solid offensive line. The difference will be whether or not the defense steps up. Bielema brought in former Montana head coach Bobby Hauck to fix the issue.
Time to get into the weeds. Minnesota rewarded P.J. Fleck with an extension last summer, tying him to the program through 2030. As a result, the Golden Gophers finished 8-5, but fell to Cal, Iowa (41-3…), and Northwestern. Not ideal.
There is plenty of hype surrounding redshirt sophomore quarterback Drake Lindsey. He’s shown flashes, but he will need to take a massive step in 2026 to lead his team to the CFP. It’s not out of the realm of possibilities with Darius Taylor leading the way on the ground, plus three transfer receivers and a transfer tight end.
Long Shots With a Shot?
If we had a nickel for every time a struggling Big Ten team fired its coach to hire the James Madison coach, we’d have two nickels, which isn’t a lot, but it’s weird that it’s happened twice. UCLA took the Indiana route and brought in Bob Chesney, Cignetti’s successor at JMU.
If Ourlads is correct, the Bruins will have a lineup full of transfers on offense, nine of which came to town this offseason. Defensively, it’s the same. Only one projected starter is home-grown, three transferred in previously, and seven came by this offseason. Nico Iamaleava is back at quarterback after struggling last year. The Bruins are a long shot to make it, but so was Indiana heading into 2024.
Matt Rhule may be one of the handful of Big Ten coaches on his way out after this year. However, a CFP appearance could go far. After kicking off the season with some back-to-back #MACtion (don’t sleep on Ohio or Bowling Green), the schedule takes off quickly. The Huskers get to play Indiana, Oregon, and Ohio State. The break could be that Indiana and Ohio State come to Lincoln, but still.
Anthony Colandrea comes to town after winning the MWV Offensive Player of the Year award, having passed for 3,459 yards and 23 touchdowns. After three seasons of Dylan Raiola, the Huskers are getting a bit of an upgrade and a leader. Nebraska only threw for 224 yards per game last year. It’ll help that it added a pair of stud transfers on the offensive line.
Need a Miracle Season
Miracles happen every year, but getting any of the remaining five programs to the CFP may require a little divine intervention.
To start, could Northwestern finally take a step under Dave Braun? The Wildcats will finally have a home after playing in makeshift venues over the last two seasons. Plus, they have a quarterback worth buying into. Aidan Chiles has shown flashes in his three seasons of college football, but hasn’t been able to put it all together.
The schedule isn’t very nice, of course. The Wildcats play Indiana, Penn State, Oregon, Iowa, and Ohio State. Not to mention the season opens with South Dakota State and the sideshow that is Colorado. Also, who did Northwestern cut off in traffic to earn a September 12 bye?? Northwestern may be lucky to earn a bowl bid this year, but it could be one of the better 6-6 teams out there, considering.
The other program needing divine intervention has to be Wisconsin. Money talks, so the Badgers reaffirmed their commitment to Luke Fickell and gave him a vote of confidence, and elected to funnel more funding into the program.
Wisconsin brought in a handful of transfers, including former Iowa State running back Abu Sama III and Old Dominion quarterback Colton Joseph. On defense, Marvin Burks Jr. came in via Missouri, and Bryce West transferred in from Ohio State. Wisconsin should be better in 2026, but how much better will be the question.
Hell Hath Frozen
Imagine a world in which Maryland, Rutgers, or Purdue made the College Football Playoff. Sure, you could have said that before Indiana made it, so in the NIL/transfer portal era, anything is possible.
Maryland was close to firing Mike Locksley last year. But, just like Wisconsin, the Terrapins brought him back. Sophomore quarterback Malik Washington showed flashes last year – including leading the Big Ten in passing attempts – but he looked like a freshman passing for just under 3,000 yards.
The Terps’ leading rusher and second-leading receiver, DeJuan Williams, returns, so the sophomore duo will be asked to lead the way.
Rutgers is another interesting case. The Scarlet Knights have talent, but they’ve never been able to put it together. Antwan Raymond is one of the best running backs in the Big Ten. A.J. Surace is going to take over with all of nine career passing attempts. The defense was rebuilt via the portal, so that will be fun to watch, but what will Rutgers be under another year with Greg Schiano?
Finally, Purdue. The Boilermakers struggled in Barry Odom’s first season, but how many coaches haven’t struggled at Purdue? The Boilermakers also attacked the transfer portal with seven projected starters on offense and six on defense who played elsewhere last year.
It would likely take multiple acts of divine intervention from multiple belief systems to push the bottom of the Big Ten into the conversation.
Main Image: Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
