For the first time in the young history of the College Football Playoff, the Big Ten sent a pair of teams to the big dance. Even better, they were two of the biggest brands and the two teams who hate one another more than anything. Big Ten predictions around the ‘net are all over the place and our Last Word staff are no exception.
Ever since the inception of the East/West divide, the East has been incredibly top-heavy and has been won by either Ohio State or Michigan every year since 2017. The West, however, has been all over the place and our polling shows the same.
The methodology for these results is such that first-place votes equal seven points and so forth. A total of 14 ballots were cast and the results were as varied as they could be. Here is our Last Word Big Ten predictions for the 2023 season shook out.
2023 Big Ten Predictions from the Last Word Staff
“Champions of the West”…in the East?
Our picks resulted in the following from the B1G East:
Michigan: 89 points (8 first-place votes)
Ohio State: 86 points (5)
Penn State: 76 points (1)
Michigan State 48 points
Maryland: 43 points
Indiana: 30 points
Rutgers: 20 points
Hail to the Threepeat
Patience has paid off in Ann Arbor. Despite starting off with all the hype in the world and continually struggling against rivals, the Wolverines and Jim Harbaugh are top dogs. They’re coming off of back-to-back Big Ten titles, CFP appearances, and absolute beatdowns of their hated rival, Ohio State. Michigan returns JJ McCarthy at quarterback and one of the top running back duos in the country in Blake Corum and Donovan Edwards.
Michigan finished with the most first-place votes from the Last Word on College Football team. Harbaugh may be facing a four-game suspension to start the season. However, the Wolverines will play host to ECU, UNLV, Bowling Green, and Rutgers to start the year. They should not have to sweat until their bout with Penn State on Veteran’s Day.
Two Others Can Contend
In the East, realistically, there is a three-horse race: Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State.
The Buckeyes garnered five first-place votes in these Big Ten predictions. There are plenty of reasons why. Marvin Harrison, Jr. and Emeka Egbuka are arguably the top receiver duo in the nation. They have a handful of solid-to-great running backs. The defense has talent but what they did at the tail-end of the 2022 season will forever leave a bad taste in the mouth. Oddly enough, if you listen closely, Edwards is still running.
Meanwhile, Penn State will most likely be led by young phenom, Drew Allar at quarterback. Even in limited time in 2022, it was apparent that Allar had what it takes to succeed. As with Michigan and Ohio State, the Nittany Lions boast a ridiculously-talented backfield with Kaytron Allen and Nicholas Singleton. Defensively, Penn State is led by a secondary that lost a few pieces but will still be one of the best in the conference.
The Rest
After the top three, the division drops off a bit. Realistically, the biggest threat to shake things up is Maryland. Last year, the Terps swept their non-conference slate before narrowly losing to Michigan. They have a legitimate offense led by senior quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa but it will be difficult to make any headway.
Michigan State is an interesting case. The Spartans struggled last year after an 11-win 2021. Unfortunately, Michigan State’s main weakness has been its secondary. The key in 2023 will be whether or not it can play competent football in the back end. Plus, the green and white lost Peyton Thorne to the Transfer Portal so it’ll be either Noah Kim or Katin Houser leading the offense. The offensive line looks to be better but replacing each of its top receivers will be incredibly difficult.
Indiana looked like a potential contender last year. The Hoosiers kicked off the year with wins over Illinois, Idaho (FCS), and Western Kentucky. Illinois and Western Kentucky ended up as solid teams as the dust settled. But then, Indiana lost eight of its last nine games, only notching a win over Michigan State. This will be Tom Allen‘s seventh year at the helm. Even for a program with little-to-no expectations, this could be a pivotal year for the coach.
And Rutgers. Greg Schiano may have something starting at Rutgers, but it needs to show soon. It’s his fourth year and he’s averaging four wins a season. Major outlets like Phil Steele have the Scarlet Knights earning bowl eligibility in 2023. Behind Gavin Wimsatt, who struggled a bit as a freshman, the offense will have to take a step. Or else Rutgers will finish at the bottom of the division yet again.
The Wild, Wild, Wide-Open West
One thing is consistent among all Big Ten Predictions: the B1G West is wide-open and will end up losing in the Championship. Mercifully, the divisions will be gone after this year. Here is how our team ranked them:
Iowa: 84 points (4 first-place votes)
Wisconsin: 80 points (5)
Illinois: 67 points (3)
Minnesota: 56 points (1)
Purdue: 50 points (1)
Nebraska: 38 points
Northwestern: 17 points
Familiar Faces
Of the nine Big Ten Championship Games since the East/West split, six West participants were either Wisconsin or Iowa. The Hawkeyes come in as the favorite in our ballots and for good reason. Iowa’s strength has been its defense for quite some time. However, the offense has left plenty to be desired. This year, Iowa has incoming transfers at quarterback with Cade McNamara (from Michigan) and former five-star receiver, Kaleb Brown (Ohio State). Will it be enough to catapult the offense into 2023?
Wisconsin has been the cream of the crop of the West and has actually made the most Big Ten Championship games with six (tied with Ohio State). However, of late, the Badgers have not been up to snuff, and thus they usher in the Luke Fickell era. Fickell had unprecedented success at Cincinnati and will look to continue his growth in Wisconsin. With a running back as good as Braelon Allen, it makes sense that Fickell’s squad is one of the favorites in the West.
Dark Horses
It’s evident how wide-open our staff believes the West is with how many different programs earned first-place votes. Illinois will be a team to keep an eye on in 2023. Its roster is full of incoming transfers but none bigger than quarterback Luke Altmeyer. The former four-star recruit came to Illinois by way of Ole Miss and has plenty of potential to be a star. The Illini will have to replace over 1,600 yards and 300 carries with the graduation of Chase Brown. Junior Reggie Love III looks to be up to the task.
As with Illinois, Minnesota has to replace an uber-productive running back in Mo Ibrahim. Either way, P.J. Fleck‘s squad has posted four straight winning seasons and bowl wins in non-COVID years. Taking up the mantle will be Western Michigan transfer, Sean Tyler. Tyler, coming off of back-to-back 1,000-yard seasons, is more than capable. The Golden Gophers do draw a difficult schedule with both Michigan and Ohio State as crossovers. They’ll have to make every game count. Watch out for Athan Kaliakmanis. He is poised for a break-out season.
Purdue is the reigning division champ and only earned one first-place vote amongst our Big Ten predictions. Overall, the Boilermakers are primed for regressing because they lost Jeff Brohm to Louisville. They instead get first-year head coach Ryan Walters. Their hopes hinge on whether or not Hudson Card, a Texas transfer, can catch on.
The Rest
So, this year is the year for Nebraska, right? Nebraska dumped Scott Frost for Matt Rhule, so the Cornhuskers’ rebuild will likely have to continue another year as Rhule gets back into the swing of things. Nebraska joined the long list of B1G teams with an incoming transfer at quarterback. Jeff Sims spent the last three years at Georgia Tech and showed flashes.
Finally, Northwestern. It was nearly unanimous that the Wildcats would finish seventh in the West. With how the school handled the Pat Fitzgerald situation and the impending fallout, Northwestern is going to struggle in 2023. Players are making the jump to the Transfer Portal and it’s just not looking good for Chicago’s Big Ten Team™.
Who Takes the Crown?
One thing is for certain in our Big Ten predictions: the East is going to win.
Eight panelists chose Michigan to win its third consecutive championship. Of those eight, three believe the Wolverines beat Wisconsin, two say Illinois, two say Iowa, and one says it’ll be a 2022 rematch with Purdue.
Five tabbed Ohio State to reclaim the crown with the most common opponent being Iowa (twice). The other choices were wins over Wisconsin, Illinois, and Minnesota.
Finally, one person voted that Penn State would take the crown with a win over Wisconsin, shades of the 2016 matchup.
Regardless of who you believe will reign supreme, Big Ten football is nearly back! Check back in December to see if the Last Word on College Football Big Ten predictions were anywhere close.
Photo courtesy: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports
