Recently, John Hollinger of The Athletic posted five NBA teams that he expects to exceed expectations and five he expects to fall short of expectations. Using his prediction model, Hollinger looked at the over/under win totals for NBA teams according to BetMGM. Here are the ten teams in the two articles that he highlighted.
Hollinger’s NBA Teams That Will Exceed/Fall Short Of Expectations
Exceed Expectations
- Cleveland Cavaliers (48.5 wins)
- Phoenix Suns (46.5 wins)
- Oklahoma City Thunder (56.5 wins)
- Atlanta Hawks (35.5 wins)
- Detroit Pistons (24.5 wins)
Better health may allow Cleveland to win at least 49 games in 2024-25. They went 48-34 last season, and that was with Evan Mobley missing 32 games, Donovan Mitchell missing 27, and Darius Garland missing 25. They went 36-19 with Mitchell in the lineup and 12-15 without him.
While the Suns look to be an improved team now that they have a true lead guard in Tyus Jones, the depth of the West leaves their over/under win total looking low. Still, they won 49 games last season where a lot seemed to go wrong.
Much like the Suns, Oklahoma City’s over/under win total seems low as the team looks improved on paper. They finished with a 57-25 record in 2023-24, and have added Alex Caruso along with Isaiah Hartenstein in the offseason. The Thunder did go almost all of last season with their rotation pieces remaining healthy. Will they have that same health luck in 2024-25?
Yes, there is less talent on Atlanta’s roster after trading Dejounte Murray in the offseason. While true, it was also evident that the Murray/Trae Young backcourt pairing wasn’t working out for the team. With a large drop-off in expectations after the projected top-eight in the Eastern Conference, perhaps the Hawks can beat up on bottom-feeders and allow them to reach the Play-In Tournament.
After a miserable 14-win season in 2023-24, can the Pistons really win at least 11 more games in the upcoming season? Amazingly, Detroit hasn’t won at least 25 games since the 2018-19 season (2019-20 season was a 66-game season, and 2020-21 season was 72). The team added some veterans this offseason to help out around Cade Cunningham in Tobias Harris, Malik Beasley, Paul Reed, and Tim Hardaway Jr.
Fall Short Of Expectations
- Washington Wizards (22.5 wins)
- Memphis Grizzlies (47.5 wins)
- Denver Nuggets (51.5 wins)
- Charlotte Hornets (29.5 wins)
- Los Angeles Clippers (41.5 wins*)
It’s hard to predict a team to be 22-60 or worse. The Wizards fell well short of that last season though, eclipsing the Pistons win total of 14 by just one game. They added a couple solid veterans in Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valanciunas, but there’s a good chance that both get traded at some point.
The Grizzlies averaged 53.5 wins in 2021-22 and 2022-23. Last season, they bottomed out to 27 wins with star point guard Ja Morant playing in just nine games. Again, with the West having so many tough teams, it can’t just be assumed that Memphis will rebound to their previous heights.
Denver won 57 games last season. A team that has three-time MVP Nikola Jokic will always have a high ceiling. The depth around Jokic has been lessened though after Kentavious Caldwell-Pope left for the Orlando Magic.
It’s likely as simple as this. If LaMelo Ball can stay relatively healthy, he should provide enough to allow Charlotte to win at least 30 games. Can that be counted on though? The 23-year-old has combined to appear in only 58 games over the last two seasons.
The Clippers were at 41.5 wins, but as Hollinger pointed out, BetMGM took their line off. Hollinger mentions that other sports books have the Clippers over/under around 39.5. They were taken off due to the uncertainty surrounding Kawhi Leonard and his injury recovery this offseason. Even with a somewhat healthy Leonard, there are plenty of younger teams out West that look better on paper.
