The Boston Celtics and Dallas Mavericks are set to face off in the NBA finals. With almost a week before the first game tips off it’s time to start analyzing this exciting matchup. One interesting thing to do is see which team has the historical advantage through various stats. While researching historical stats that correlate with winning a title it’s the Celtics have several advantages. Let’s dive into five historical stats that favor the Celtics.
5 Historical Stats That Favor The Celtics In The NBA Finals
1. The 40/20 Rule
The 40/20 rule coined by legendary head coach Phil Jackson states to win an NBA title teams must win their 40th game before they lose their 20th game. Notably, over the past 44 years all but three champions have followed the 40/20 rule. The 1995 Rockets, 2004 Pistons, and 2006 Heat are the lone expectations. The Celtics fit the 40/20 rule as they only have 20 total losses including the playoffs. When the Celtics reached their 40th win they had just 12 losses. The Celtics posted a 64-18 record in the regular season and have a 12-2 record in the playoffs giving them a combined 76-20 record. On the flip side, the Mavericks had 24 wins at the time of their 20th loss.
2. Top 4 Net Rating of All Time
One stat that has been discussed a lot with the Celtics is their historic net rating. The Celtics’ 11.6 net rating is the fourth-highest of all time. Only the 1996, 1997 Bulls, and the 2017 Warriors have higher net ratings. Excluding the Celtics eight out of the top 10 teams with the highest net rating went on to win a championship. Outside of the previously mentioned great teams this list includes teams such as the 1972 Lakers, the 1971 Bucks, and the 2008 Celtics.
Highest net rating of all-time:
13.4 — ’96 Bulls
12.0 — ’97 Bulls
11.6 — ’17 Warriors
11.6 — ’24 CelticsThe first three were Champions. pic.twitter.com/8g5u48XO69
— StatMuse (@statmuse) March 5, 2024
3. Top 5 Offense and Defense
Since 1997 which is the earliest year the NBA started keeping track of offensive and defensive ratings teams with a top-five offense and a top-five defense have a 7-2 record in the NBA finals. The list of seven teams who won features the 1997 Bulls, the 2000 Lakers, the 2019 Raptors, the 2015, and 2017 Warriors, and the 2007, and 2014 Spurs. An impressive group of teams that features four out of the consensus ten greatest teams of all time. The two teams that lost in the finals with a top-five offense and a top-five defense were the 2008 Lakers and the 2011 Heat. Crucially, the Celtics had the top-ranked offense and the second-ranked defense. They join the 2015 and 2017 Warriors as the only teams to make the NBA finals with a top-three offense and defense.
This stat highlights the Celtics’ elite all-around play. Their top-ranked offense is also the best of all time although that record is typically broken each year. Stars Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown lead this juggernaut of an offense surrounded by elite floor spacing. The Celtics’ versatile defense led by the elite backcourt of Jrue Holiday and Derrick White as well as the rim protection of Kristaps Porzingis perfects the Celtics all-around play.
4. Teams With Less Than 20 Losses
In addition to the 40/20 rule teams with 20 losses heading into the finals have an impressive record. Seven out of these eight teams have won the title. The lone expectation is the 2016 Warriors who won a record-breaking 73 regular season games before losing to LeBron James and the Cavaliers. The seven teams that won include legendary teams such as three 1990s Bulls teams, the 2013 Heat, the 2017 Warriors the 1986 Celtics, and the 1987 Lakers.
Finals! This is a crazy list for these guys. pic.twitter.com/cUxm6SmMyE
— Bill Simmons (@BillSimmons) May 28, 2024
5. Defense Wins Championships
As we’ve established the Celtics’ elite defense gives them an advantage. The Mavs had the 18th-ranked defense this season. Notably, the 2001 Lakers were the only team to win a championship with a defense ranked lower than 18th they ranked 22nd on the season. Despite this low ranking the Lakers managed to have the top-ranked defense in the playoffs. They were famously led by the iconic duo of Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant. Great players can overcome historical advantages which gives the Mavericks a chance with the incredible talent and play of Luka Doncic. However, there’s no denying the historical disadvantage of having a mediocre defense.
Only three teams have ever won a title without having a top-ten defense. This includes the 2001 Lakers, the 2023 Nuggets, and the 2018 Warriors. The Mavericks have the seventh-ranked defense in the playoffs while this is still average the team is capable of playing great defense at times. The elite backcourt of Luka and Kyrie Irving might be enough to overcome their defensive rating. Regardless, defense should be a concern for the Mavs especially given the historical stats behind it. Furthermore, outside of the 2001 Lakers only the 2015, 2017, and 2018 Cavs and the 1998 Jazz have even made the finals with a defensive ranking of 18 or lower.
