Arguably, the most anticipated NCAA Women’s Basketball Final 4 is quickly approaching. The event, featuring two of the most talented women’s players in recent memory and two of the nation’s top programs, will begin at 7 p.m. (ET) at the sold-out Rocket Mortage Fieldhouse in Cleveland (OH) on Friday.
Women’s Basketball Final Four Preview and Picks: Are The Iowa Hawkeyes And South Carolina Gamecocks On A National Title Collison Course?
This year’s NCAA Women’s Basketball Final 4 is so anticipated that the resale markets of the game tickets are going for twice as much as the men’s, according to reports. Logitix, a technology company that analyzes prices across multiple platforms, said the ” average price of a ticket sold to the women’s semifinals was $2,323; the average sale price for the men’s was $1,001.21.”
Furthermore, the average price for a ticket for the two women’s semifinals is $1,131,78, which is 2.8 times as much as it was in 2023. The average cost for last year’s Final 4 was $400.28, even though two of the teams in last year’s event are also participating this weekend, Iowa and South Carolina. Virginia and LSU were the other two teams in last year’s Final 4.
So, why the huge difference in the interest in the women’s game
It is pretty easy, Iowa Hawkeyes guard Caitlin Clark‘s is bigger than she was a season ago. People want to see whether she can close her collegiate career with a championship after reaching the national title game.
Clark and the Hawkeyes (33-4) close out the night against the top women’s basketball programs this century in the Connecticut Huskies. The Huskies (33-5), national runners-up in 2022, have claimed 10 national titles and are in the Final Four for the 20th time since 2000. Plus, the Huskies have their own sensation in Paige Bueckers, who was No. 1 in the 2020 recruiting class.
“Ninety percent of the time, people are tuning in for the players,” Fred Gaudelli, the executive producer for NBC Sports, told The Athletic. “It’s the expectation to see greatness, to see something you haven’t seen, to see something historical, to be able to be conversant the next day with all your friends or coworkers about what so-and-so did last night. That outweighs the team. They always say it’s about the front of the jersey, and it definitely is when you’re in the locker room. But when you’re talking about TV draws, it’s about stars.
Flora Kelly, a vice president of research at ESPN, also commented about why a sport is popular:
“To say what the bigger draw is, the player or the team, depends on what sport you’re talking about and what’s going on,” she said. “For a sport like the NBA, the athlete has more importance than, say, baseball. In the case of Caitlin (Clark, Iowa’s gifted guard), you have to remember she is a generational athlete who has an ability to drive ratings to a degree like we rarely see outside of Tiger, Serena or LeBron. So, in a way, from a research perspective, she’s like an outlier but a good one. And so she’s one of those people that can sort of drive a rating to an equal degree to a team. But typically when we’re looking at what can drive a rating, we are looking at the team fan base and the team performance. If you think about it, the heritage of a team and the ability to build a long-standing fan base is much easier to activate once that team is doing well.”
No. 1 South Carolina Gamecocks (36-0) vs. No. 3 North Carolina State Wolfpack (31-6)
The first semifinal may not be the marquee matchup as Iowa-UConn, but some storylines exist. The South Carolina (36-0), who suffered their lone loss a year ago to LSU in the national semifinals, is primed for vengeance. The Gamecocks want to become the first undefeated women’s national champion since the 2015-16 UConn team and 10th in history.
Moreover, South Carolina basketball has become a national brand, with six Final Four appearances and two titles since 2015. USC doesn’t have the star power of its previous teams, but the Gamecocks are well-balanced, led by 6-7 Kamila Cardoso. Coach Dawn Staley is still one of the biggest names in the sport. On Wednesday, Staley was named the Naismith Coach of the Year for the fourth time.
South Carolina’s Friday opponent, North Carolina State (31-6), is the wildcard in this event. The Wolfpack are making just their second Final Four appearance in program history, their last being in 1998. However, they have been regular NCAA tournament participants, making their seventh Big Dance in eight years, and topped the 30-win mark for the second time in three years.
North Carolina State leads the all-time series against South Carolina 20-12, though the Gamecocks have won four of the last six meetings. The Gamecocks and the Wolfpack split their previous two matchups, with each team winning on their home court. Both of those games were relatively low-scoring affairs.
NC State Wolfpack
NC State enters the game having won eight of 10. The Wolfpack earned their Final Four berth by defeating Texas 76-66. All six of their losses have been to ACC schools.
NC State went 11-6 in Quad I games this season. NC State does have wins over UConn, Colorado, and Notre Dame, in addition to tourney wins over Texas and Stanford.
The Wolfpack are a well-balanced, experienced club, though they only go seven deep. They average 73.8 points and have a shooting slash line of .427/.329/743.
Defensively, the Wolfpack allow 60.3 points while limiting opponents to 35.9% from the field and 28.8% from the 3-point line. They have a +5.8 rebound margin, a +1.0 turnover differential, and +5.4 fouls.
Aziaha James, having a fantastic NCAA tournament, leads five players at 16.7 points a game. James has led the Wolfpack in scoring in each NCAA tourney game. She averages 24.3 points on 50.8% from the field and 57.1% from the 3-point line, connecting on 16 of 28 shots from beyond the arc and 4.0 assists for the tournament.
Second-leading scorer Saniya Rivers, who tossed in 20 points against Tennessee, is the Wolfpack’s top two-way player, averaging 15.6 points and 6.2 boards during the NCAA tournament. 6-5 center River Baldwin is also having a strong NCAA tourney producing 11.6 points and 6.5 boards a game.
South Carolina Gamecocks
South Carolina has lost three games over the past three campaigns and nine in the last five seasons. Four of these losses have come during the SEC conference or NCAA tournament. The Gamecocks reached the Final Four with a 70-58 victory over Oregon State.
USC is 17-0 in Quad I games this year. The Gamecocks have big wins victories over UConn, Notre Dame, LSU (2), Indiana and Oregon State.
South Carolina has a nice mix of veterans and youngsters. The Gamecocks go nine deep and receive consistent contributions from everyone in their regular rotation.
All nine players in their rotation average at least six points, one rebound, and one assist. While only three players average double-figures, no one more than 15 points a game, seven average at least eight points.
South Carolina averages 85.6 points with a .492/.394/.691 shooting slash line. Defensively, the Gamecocks allow 56 points while limiting opponents to 32.1% shooting from the field and 26.9% from the 3-point line. The Gamecocks have a +12.2 rebound advantage, +2.9 turnover differential, and +2.6 foul edge.
NCAA Women’s Basketball Final 4 Prediction
South Carolina is an 11.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 139.5.
NC State is the surprise Final Four participant, and the Wolfpack deserves to be here. However, USC is a far superior and deeper team. The Gamecocks bench averages an NCAA tournament-high 38.8 points and outscores their opponent’s reserves by nearly 33 points a game.
I have the Gamecocks as about a 15-point favorite here. Moreover, USC is 8-0 against common opponents, while NC State is 5-3.
In terms of the point total, I have the point total at 142. While I lean the over, I will likely pass on the bet. The reason is that the Gamecocks and Wolfpack can hunker down defensively when locked in on that end. Plus, both are excellent on the defensive glass.
However, I may re-examine this as an in-game bet.
Pick: South Carolina (-11.5)
No. 3 Connecticut Huskies (33-5) vs. No. 1 Iowa Hawkeyes (33-4)
UConn and Iowa are meeting for the 10th time ever. The Huskies lead the all-time series 6-3, as they have won each of the last six meetings. The Huskies also have defeated the Hawkeyes in all three of their NCAA tournament matchups, which includes in the 2021 Sweet 16 contest.
UConn Huskies
Connecticut has been in the NCAA tournament for 35 straight seasons. The Huskies, playing in their NCAA-record 23 Final Four, are the winningest program in NCAA tournament history, with a record of 135-23.
UConn has won 13 straight games and 29 of 31. All five of the Huskies’ losses were to NCAA tournament teams, each by double figures. The Huskies defeated USC in the Elite Eight to advance to this weekend’s games.
Bueckers and Aaliyah Edwards are two stars for a team that has lost five key players to injury for the season. Thus leaving the Huskies shorthanded as Ice Brady and Qadence Samuels as their only options off the bench.
Bueckers averages 28.0 points, 9.0 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 3.3 steals for the tournament. Meanwhile, Edwards has contributed 16.7 points and eight rebounds over the last few games. Buekers has produced three double-doubles, and Edwards has recorded two.
UConn averages 79.9 points and has a shooting slash line of .497/.364/.744 for the season. Defensively, the Huskies allow 56.8 points while limiting opponents to 35.4% from the field and 28.2% from the 3-point line. The Huskies outrebound their opponents by 5.8 boards a game, have a +4.2 turnover margin, and have a +2.3 foul differential.
Iowa Hawkeyes
Iowa is a fairly deep veteran team making its second straight Final Four appearance and third all-time. The Hawkeyes, who defeated LSU 94-87 to advance, have set a program record in victories (33) and enter tomorrow’s game on a 10-game winning streak.
Iowa is 17-4 in Quad I games this year and a perfect 10-0 in neutral contests. Iowa’s biggest wins came against Virginia Tech, Kansas State, Indiana, Ohio State, Colorado and LSU.
Clark. one of the greatest women’s basketball players, is the only D-I player to total 3,900 points, 1,000 assists, and 900 rebounds. Clark has scored 27+ points in all four NCAA tourney games and produced three double-doubles. She averages 34.7 points, 7.2 rebounds, and 10 assists during the tournament.
While Clark gets all the attention, and for good reason, 6-2 forward Hannah Stuelke and senior Kate Martin are double-digit scorers and excellent rebounders.
Iowa is the top-scoring team in the nation at 91.1 points a game with a shooting slash line of .499/.378/.780. Defensively, the Hawkeyes allow 71.5 points while limiting opponents to 39.6% shooting from the field and 30.5% from the 3-point line.
The Hawkeyes outrebound their opponent by +7.0 per game, have a +0.5 turnover advantage, and have a +5.8 foul differential.
NCAA Women’s Basketball Final 4 Prediction
Iowa is a -2.5-point favorite, with the over/under set at 162.5.
This should be a fabulous game. The Hawkeyes are the better team here, as the Huskies are depleted, especially up front. However, if the Huskies can turn it into an all-time defensive effort, they could pull off the upset.
Take the Hawkeyes on the money line.
Pick: Iowa Hawkeyes (-160)
