The 2023 WNBA playoffs are now in their semifinal stage, with all four top seeds intact. All four teams will start their best-of-five-game series on September 24. No. 2 seed New York Liberty and the No. 3 Connecticut Sun start things off at the Barclays Center at 1 p.m. (ET). The top-seeded Las Vegas Aces host the fourth-seeded Dallas Wings at 5 p.m. (ET).
2023 WNBA Semifinals Game 1 Betting Preview: Best Bets, Parlays, and Player Props
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No. 3 Connecticut Sun at No. 2 New York Liberty
WNBA Playoff Game 1 Details
Game Time: 1 p.m. (ET) at the Barclays Center
TV: ESPN
Spread: New York Liberty -8 (-110)
Money Line: New York Liberty (-355), Connecticut Sun (+255)
Over/Under: 163 Points
Connecticut Playoff Run
Connecticut is in the WNBA semifinals for the fifth straight year. The Sun is the only team of the four semifinalists to be forced to a Game 3 in the opening round. Connecticut defeated Minnesota 90-75 in Game 3 on Wednesday to advance to the second round.
Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner were outstanding against the Lynx. Both players averaged over 20 points and combined for 45 points, 15.7 rebounds, and 14 assists against the Lynx. Thomas nearly averaged a double-double with 23 points and 9.3 dimes. Meanwhile, Bonner did produce a double-double with 23 points and 10 caroms.
Tyasha Harris also averaged double-figures against the Lynx with 10.7 points on 50% shooting from the field and 2.3 threes at a 63.6% clip. Rebecca Allen contributed 9.7 points and 7.0 rebounds, while Tiffany Hayes added 9.0 points.
Through three playoff games, Connecticut averages 85 points a game. The Sun have shot 48.7% from the field and made 10.7 threes at a 45.7% clip in the playoffs. They also grab 33.7 rebounds (6.7 offensive), 22.3 assists, and 11.3 turnovers.
Defensively, Connecticut allows 72.3 points a contest. The Sun has limited the Lynx to 42.3% from the field and 7.3 treys at a 31% clip. Opponents are grabbing 31.3 boards and turnover over the ball 12.7 times a game.
New York Liberty Playoff Run
New York is coming off their first playoff series win for the first time since 2017. The Liberty, in the WNBA postseason for the third straight year, defeated the Washington Mystics 2-0.
While Sabrina Ionescu and Breanna Stewart finished with solid numbers against the Mystics, Betnijah Laney and Jonquel Jones carried the team. Ionescu had a monster game in Game 1, while Stewart bounced back in Game 2.
Laney scored in double figures in both games, while Jones produced two double-doubles. Laney averaged 19.0 points on 53.1% shooting from the field and 40% from deep. Meanwhile, Jones compiled 19.5 points, 13.0 rebounds, 2.5 assists and 2.5 blocks.
In two playoff contests, New York averages 89.2 points on 46% shooting and 11.1 treys at a 37.4% clip. The Liberty bring down 37.9 rebounds (8.7 offensive) and turn the ball over nearly 15 times a game.
New York allowed 80 points a game against the Mystics. The Liberty held Washington to 40.6% from the field and 28.1% from the 3-point line. Their opponents grab 42 (12.5 offensive) boards and commit 12.5 turnovers a contest.
Season Series
New York swept the regular season series against Connecticut. The Liberty outscored the Sun by an average of 88.5-73.5, winning their home contests by 16 or more points.
Prediction:
I like New York to win game one. The Liberty dominated the Sun at home this year. Moreover, Connecticut didn’t have an answer for Stewart or Jones during the regular season as the inside duo combined for nearly 34 points and 18.1 boards in the four regular season contests. The Sun struggled to defend Minnesota’s Napheesa Collier in the series’ final two games.
Since there is no value in taking the Liberty straight up, I am leaning toward taking them ATS. I will use New York
(moneyline) in a parlay.
New York won each game against Connecticut at home by 16 points, including picking up a 31-point victory in their last meeting on September 1.
The Liberty are 5-0 on the season, coming off four days of rest — one of New York’s wins over Connecticut came on three days off – with around a 20-point scoring margin. The Liberty defeated Washington by 15 in the opening game following four days off.
On the other hand, Connecticut is 3-4 when playing after three days of rest. The Sun’s lone loss to the Lynx in the playoffs was a seven-point setback after three days of rest.
Best Bet: New York Liberty -8.0 (-110)
Other Bet: New York Liberty Over 85.5 Points (-115)
New York is one of the most potent offensive teams in the WNBA. The Liberty has a couple of dominating post players who can step out behind the 3-point line. They are also an outstanding 3-point shooting club overall. The Liberty scored at least 86 points in each of the final three regular-season games against the Sun and both of their playoff contests thus far. Moreover, New York averaged 90 points at home this season and 90 points post-all-star break.
Other Bets:
First Quarter Over 41.5 Points (-110)
Player Props
Betnijah Laney under 15.5 Points (-120)
DeWanna Bonner Over 19.5 Points (-105)
Sabrina Ionescu Under 17.5 Points (-140)
DeWanna Bonner Over 6.5 Rebounds (-120)
Breanna Stewart Over 8.5 Rebounds (-140)
Sabrina Ionescu Over 4.5 Assists (-135)
Same Game Parlay
Alyssa Thomas +12 Points
Breanna Stewart +20 Points
Courtney Vandersloot +10 Points
DeWanna Bonner 18+ Points
Jonquel Jones +12 Points
Tiffany Hayes +8 Points
Alyssa Thomas 5+ Assists
Breanna Stewart 2+ Assists
Sabrina Ionescu 5+ Assists
Breanna Stewart 8+ Rebounds
Jonquel Jones 8+ Rebounds
Sabrina Ionescu 2+ Rebounds
DeWanna Bonner 5+ Rebounds
13-Legged Parlay: +2800
No. 4 Dallas Wings at No. 1 Las Vegas Aces
WNBA Game Details
Game Time: 5 p.m. (ET) at Micholob UltraArena
TV: ESPN2
Spread: Las Vegas Aces -10 (-110)
Money Line: Dallas Wings +430, Las Vegas Aces -600
Over/Under: 174.5 Points (-110)
Dallas Wings Playoff Run
Dallas swept Atlanta (2-0) to win its first playoff series since 2015. The Wings are in the playoffs for a third straight season.
Satou Sabally, the 2023 WNBA Most Improved Player, and Arike Ogwumbowle were fabulous against Atlanta. Sabally averaged 22.5 points, 5.0 rebounds, and 4.5 assists while shooting 50% from the field and 4.5 boards in the two games. Ogwumbowle contributed 22.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 5.5 caroms despite struggling shooting the ball. Meanwhile, Teaira McCowan averaged a double-double with 14.5 points on 75% shooting 15 caroms and two blocks.
In two games playoff games, Dallas averages a league-high 97.5 points on 50.7% shooting from the field and 7.0 treys at a 37.2% clip. The Wings average 42.5 rebounds (11.5 offensive), 21.5 assists, and 16 turnovers.
Defensively, Dallas permits 78 points on 38% shooting from the field and 10.5 treys at a 42.6% clip. The Wings opponents have grabbed 30 rebounds and turned the ball over 17 times.
Las Vegas Aces Playoff Run
Las Vegas is in the WNBA semifinals for the fifth straight season. The Aces won both of their first-round contests over Chicago by 20-plus points.
A’ja Wilson, the WNBA 2023 DPOY, led a balanced Aces attack against the Sky with 26 points and 12 boards. Meanwhile, Jackie Young and Chelsea Gray combined for 31 points, 14 assists, and seven rebounds per game. Alysha Clark and Kelsey Plum totaled 26 points apiece, while Kiah Stokes grabbed 25 caroms.
In the two postseason games, Las Vegas averages 92.8 points on 48.6% from the field and 9.3 treys at a 37.3% clip. The Aces averages 34.8 rebounds, 21.7 assists, and 11.8 turnovers.
Defensively, the Aces held the Sky to an average of 64.5 points on 35.8% shooting from the field and 6.0 treys at a 27.9% clip. The Aces’ opponents grab 37.5 rebounds (8.5 offensive) and commit 17 turnovers.
Season Series
Las Vegas won the regular season series 3-1, including both home games. The Aces won the last two meetings by 13 or more points. The Aces outscored the Wings by an average of 93.8-84.3 during the regular season.
Prediction
I like Las Vegas here, as they are 21-1 at home this season. The Aces have handled the Wings at home and have been unbelievable in their few games after six days off. But the Wings have been playing great recently, at least on the offensive. So, I will pass on the 10.0-point spread, as Vegas had just a +8.0 scoring margin over their last 15 regular season games. The Wings are 3-0 with a 12.5-point scoring margin following four days off.
My best bet here is over 174.5 points. The Aces and Wings were two of the top three scoring teams over the last 15 games, averaging 90 points a game during this stretch. Both teams averaged over 92 points during their playoff contests. Plus, the previous two meetings between the squads went over 180 points as the Aces surpassed the 100-point mark both times.
Best Bet: Over 174.5 Points (-115)
Other Bets:
Las Vegas To Win First Quarter (-225)
Over 44.5 First Quarter Points (-115)
Las Vegas To Lead at Halftime/Win Game (-240)
Las Vegas Over 92.5 Points (-115)
Player Prop
Satou Sabally Under 19.5 Points (-135)
Teaira McCowan Over 12.5 Points
Kelsey Plum Over 18.5 Points (-140)
Kelsey Plum Under 4.5 Assists (-125)
Same Game Parlay
A’ja Wilson +18 Points
Kelsey Plum +15 Points
Teaira McCowan +12 Points
A’ja Wilson 8+ Rebounds
Teaira McCowan 8+ Rebounds
5-Legged Parlay +290
Semifinal Parlay
New York Money Line
Wings-Aces Over 174.5 Points
2-Legged Parlay: +144
