It’s the last day of WNBA action before the All-Star break, and we will see the Phoenix Mercury battle the Los Angeles Sparks. Phoenix enters this game off a 72-63 home win over Connecticut to improve to 9-18 on the year. The LA Sparks enter this contest at 10-15 on the year, and they are off a 90-82 road loss to Dallas. These teams have met twice this year, both in Phoenix, and the Sparks have won both games. Can Phoenix return the favor in this one? Read on to see my Mercury vs Sparks prediction.
Mercury vs Sparks: Prediction, Preview, and Odds for July 22
Current Odds
Los Angeles -2; Over/Under 178.5
Phoenix Mercury Notes
Phoenix snapped its six‑game losing streak with a 72‑63 win over Connecticut, a game where the Mercury’s defense finally showed some bite. DeWanna Bonner delivered 21 points and controlled key stretches, while Kahleah Copper added 18 despite a cold perimeter night. Alyssa Thomas posted 11 assists and helped stabilize the offense, and Monique Akoa Makani chipped in 11 with active rebounding. Phoenix desperately needed a performance that slowed an opponent down after allowing 99.5 points per game in their previous four. The Mercury now head to Los Angeles looking to build on that defensive momentum.
Phoenix averages 82.9 points per game and shoots 43.8% from the field, including 32.4% from deep. Copper leads the team at 20.5 points, while Thomas adds 14.2 with 8.1 assists and 6.9 rebounds. Bonner contributes 9.4 points, and Natasha Mack adds 8.9 with strong interior efficiency. Defensively, Phoenix allows 86.7 points per game and opponents shoot 46.5%. To win here, the Mercury must keep defensive pressure high, limit Sparks’ second‑chance chances, and avoid the slow starts that have plagued them.
Phoenix’s challenge is sustaining defensive intensity for four quarters. Copper’s scoring gives the team a reliable engine, and Thomas’ playmaking often dictates tempo, but the Mercury have struggled to string together stops. Bonner’s experience helps stabilize possessions, and Mack’s interior presence has grown, yet Phoenix often gets caught in transition. Its perimeter defense has been vulnerable, and opponents have capitalized with clean looks. Phoenix must rebound with urgency and avoid giving Los Angeles easy rhythm shots.
The Mercury enter this matchup needing another composed effort. Los Angeles has already beaten Phoenix twice this season, both in Arizona, and now the Sparks return home. Phoenix must start fast, protect the ball, and avoid letting LA dictate pace. The Mercury’s offense can produce runs, but only if they maintain structure. If they defend with purpose and keep Copper involved early, they can challenge LA’s momentum.
Los Angeles Sparks Notes
Los Angeles returns home after an eight-point loss to Dallas, a game where its defense again struggled to contain perimeter movement. Dearica Hamby scored 16 with efficient finishing, while Nneka Ogwumike added 17 and controlled the glass with 10 rebounds. Rae Burrell contributed nine, and Erica Wheeler posted nine with 10 assists. Ariel Atkins added nine as well. The Sparks’ Sunday loss marked their fourth straight. Their defense allowed 49% shooting and 37% from deep, continuing a trend that has seen them give up 97.7 points per game over their last ten.
Los Angeles averages 88.8 points per game and shoots 46.0% from the field, including 31.8% from deep. Ogwumike leads the team at 17.3 points and 9.0 rebounds, while Hamby adds 14.6 with strong interior efficiency. Burrell contributes 12.7 points, and Atkins adds 8.9 with steady perimeter defense. Kelsey Plum is their leading scorer at 23.6 points, but she remains out for this one with a lower left leg injury. Defensively, LA allows 93.8 points per game and opponents shoot 47.6%. To win here, the Sparks must tighten rotations, defend the paint and avoid giving Phoenix clean driving lanes.
LA’s recent struggles stem from defensive breakdowns and inconsistent communication. Ogwumike continues to anchor the interior, and Hamby’s activity often keeps possessions alive, but the Sparks have been unable to slow opponents for extended stretches. Wheeler’s playmaking helps stabilize the offense, and Burrell’s scoring has been a bright spot, yet LA often falls behind early. Their perimeter coverage has been vulnerable, and opponents have capitalized with high‑percentage looks. The Sparks must rebound with urgency and avoid giving the Mercury second‑chance opportunities.
The Sparks enter this matchup needing a strong response. They’ve already beaten Phoenix twice this season and now return home, where they are 5‑7. Los Angeles must start fast, protect possessions, and avoid letting Phoenix dictate tempo. The Sparks’ offense can produce runs, but they must defend with a purpose. If they maintain structure and keep Ogwumike involved early, they can extend their success against the Mercury.
Mercury vs Sparks Prediction
Phoenix +2 makes sense because this matchup sets up cleanly for a revenge spot. The Mercury dropped both home games earlier in the season, and teams often respond well when they finally get the opponent on a neutral floor after those kinds of losses. Los Angeles is also walking into a tricky scheduling spot, playing their first home game after a four‑game road swing, and those returns frequently come with sluggish energy. Phoenix’s confidence should be higher after finally snapping its skid, and the Mercury’s pace tends to travel. With LA’s defense leaking badly, Phoenix has a real chance to control stretches and stay inside the number.
The Over 178.5 fits the rhythm both teams have been playing with. LA has allowed 97.7 points per game over their last ten, and its home defense has surrendered 92.1. Phoenix has given up 85.6 per game on the road, and their games often open up when they’re away from home because they push tempo more freely. Both offenses have reliable scoring options, and neither defense has shown much resistance lately. This matchup has the ingredients for long scoring bursts, quick possessions and a total that climbs past the number.
Together, Phoenix +2 and Over 178.5 pair well. Phoenix should bring urgency, LA should bring pace, and both defenses have been trending in the wrong direction. If the game starts fast—as the last meeting’s second half suggested—it sets the tone for a high‑scoring night. Phoenix’s motivation and LA’s defensive issues create a strong blend for both plays to connect.
Final Predictions: Phoenix +2 & Over 178.5
Mandatory Credit: Rick Scuteri-Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
