Saturday evening on the WNBA hardwood, a pair of Western Conference teams will square off as the Phoenix Mercury battle the Las Vegas Aces at Michelob ULTRA Arena. The Mercury come in off a hard-fought 92-80 home loss to Indiana, dropping them to 8-15 on the year. Las Vegas is off an 88-80 road win over Portland, and they are now at 16-7 on the year. The Aces are 8-1 in the last nine games in this series. The teams have split the first two meetings this year.
Mercury vs Aces: Prediction, Preview, And Latest Odds For July 11th
Current Odds
Las Vegas -9.5; Over/Under 172
Phoenix Mercury Preview
Phoenix enters at 8‑15 after a tough 92‑89 home loss to Indiana, a game in which their offense produced but their defense couldn’t close out. The Mercury shot 49 percent from the field and 41 percent from deep, with Alyssa Thomas scoring 22 points and Kahleah Copper adding 22. DeWanna Bonner posted nine points and seven rebounds, while Monique Akoa Makani added 14 with strong perimeter shooting. Phoenix has now dropped two straight after winning three in a row, and their defensive inconsistency remains a major issue. To win here, the Mercury must tighten rotations and avoid giving Las Vegas clean early‑clock looks.
Phoenix averages 83.7 points per game on 43.7 percent shooting, including 33.1 percent from deep. Their two‑point accuracy is 49.7 percent, and they average 32.0 rebounds per game. Copper leads the team at 20.8 points per game, while Thomas adds 14.6 points and 6.9 rebounds with elite playmaking. Bonner contributes 9.0 points and 5.2 boards, and Akoa Makani adds 9.9 with strong efficiency. Defensively, Phoenix allows 85.8 points per game and opponents shoot 46.0 percent. The Mercury must limit Las Vegas’ interior touches and avoid giving up second‑chance points.
Phoenix’s recent struggles stem from inconsistent defense and stretches of poor rebounding. They allowed Indiana to shoot 50 percent and score 92, and their perimeter coverage broke down repeatedly. Their offense has remained competitive, but turnovers and missed assignments have created issues in tight games. Copper’s scoring continues to anchor the backcourt, while Thomas provides stability, but Phoenix must avoid foul trouble and protect possessions. Their challenge here will be containing Las Vegas’ physicality and preventing long scoring bursts. If they defend with urgency, they can stay competitive.
Phoenix enters this matchup needing a strong response after two straight losses. The Mercury must start fast and avoid letting Las Vegas dictate tempo early. Their offense has been inconsistent, but they have the personnel to generate scoring runs. Phoenix’s path forward relies on pace, spacing, and cleaner possessions. If they protect the ball and maintain defensive discipline, they can challenge Las Vegas’ momentum. Their recent inconsistency creates uncertainty, but execution will determine whether they can pull off an upset.
Las Vegas Aces Preview
Las Vegas enters at 16‑7 after an 88‑80 road win over Portland, a game in which they controlled for three quarters before easing up late. The Aces shot 51 percent from the field and 40 percent from deep, with A’ja Wilson scoring 32 points and Jackie Young adding 19. NaLyssa Smith posted 16 points, while Chelsea Gray added eight with seven assists. Las Vegas led by 17 entering the fourth and never lost control. They are now 6‑1 straight up after losses this season. To win here, the Aces must maintain pace and avoid the defensive lapses that have hurt them in recent weeks.
Las Vegas averages 89.9 points per game on 48.7 percent shooting, including 35.5 percent from deep. Their two‑point accuracy is 54.9 percent, and they average 34.6 rebounds per game. Wilson leads the team at 26.1 points and 9.4 rebounds, while Young adds 16.5 with strong perimeter creation. Gray contributes 12.3 points and 7.3 assists, and Smith adds 12.0 with elite efficiency. Defensively, Las Vegas allows 86.2 points per game and opponents shoot 43.8 percent. The Aces must limit Phoenix’s transition scoring and avoid giving up clean perimeter looks.
Las Vegas’ recent issues stem from inconsistent defense and stretches of poor rebounding. They allowed Portland to stay close late despite dominating early, and their perimeter coverage broke down at times. Their offense has remained explosive, but turnovers and missed assignments have created problems in tight games. Wilson’s return stabilizes the frontcourt, and Young continues to anchor scoring. Las Vegas must also rebound better, as they allowed 30 boards to Portland. Their challenge here will be containing Phoenix’s spacing and preventing long scoring runs. If they defend with urgency, they can build momentum.
Las Vegas enters this matchup with confidence after a strong road win. The Aces must start fast and avoid letting Phoenix settle into long half‑court possessions. Their offense has been consistent, but they must defend with more discipline to avoid another shootout. Las Vegas’ path forward relies on pace, spacing, and cleaner possessions. If they protect the ball and maintain defensive intensity, they can challenge Phoenix’s momentum. Their recent form and series history provide a strong foundation if they execute.
Mercury vs Aces Prediction
Las Vegas -9.5 is playable because this matchup carries real emotional weight for the Aces. Earlier this season, Phoenix walked into their building and won by 30, and that kind of result sticks with a veteran roster. It’s also the only loss Las Vegas has suffered to the Mercury in the last nine meetings, which adds even more fuel. The Aces have been the more stable team, and their offensive ceiling is significantly higher. Phoenix can compete in stretches, but Las Vegas’ depth and motivation give them a clear edge. This is a strong revenge spot for the Aces.
The Over 172 fits the expected rhythm. Las Vegas rarely slows pace at home, and their offense has been rolling since getting Wilson back. Phoenix also tends to play faster when trailing, which creates long possessions and quick counterattacks. Both teams have shown defensive volatility, and neither has consistently strung together stops against high‑level scoring. The Mercury’s perimeter shooting adds volatility, while the Aces’ transition game naturally pushes the tempo. With two offenses capable of extended bursts, the total aligns with a fast, high‑possession matchup.
This projects as a pace‑driven game where offense dictates momentum. Las Vegas should attack early, while Phoenix’s scoring keeps pressure on the Aces throughout. The side and total complement each other: Aces -9.5 based on motivation, matchup history, and overall firepower, and Over 172 tied to tempo, scoring volatility, and recent trends. It’s a pairing that fits both teams’ recent play and how this matchup should unfold.
Final Predictions: Las Vegas -9.5 & Over 172
Photo Credit: Mark J. Rebilas, Imagn Images via Reuters Connect
