Tuesday evening on the WNBA hardwood, we will see two of the best teams in the league square off as the New York Liberty take on the Las Vegas Aces. This will be a preview of the Commissioner’s Cup Finals, which will take place on June 30th. The Liberty are off a 98-97 loss at Los Angeles to fall to 11-6 on the year. The Aces are now 12-4 on the year after a 92-73 home win over Golden State. Let’s dive in and see how this Liberty vs Aces contest will play out.
Liberty vs Aces: Prediction, Preview, And Latest Odds For June 23
Current Odds
Las Vegas -2.5; Over/Under 174.5
New York Liberty Team Notes
New York heads into this matchup trying to steady themselves after a wild 98–97 loss at Los Angeles, a game they controlled for long stretches before unraveling late. Jonquel Jones scored 18 points with four threes, while Breanna Stewart added 18 points and 10 rebounds. Satou Sabally chipped in 14, and Pauline Astier delivered 17 efficient points off the bench. The Liberty shot 49 percent from the field but allowed 52 percent on the other end. Now 11–6, they’ve dropped two straight after winning eight in a row.
Offensively, New York continues to produce at a high level, averaging 89.1 points per game on 46.3 percent shooting. Stewart leads the team at 19.4 points per game, while Jones adds 14.2 with elite rebounding and strong interior finishing. Marine Johannes and Astier combine for more than 21 points per game and give New York reliable spacing. The Liberty also shoots 35.9 percent from deep and 85.7 percent at the line. Their ball movement remains a strength, generating 21.1 assists per game.
Defensively, New York has been solid overall, allowing 83.5 points per game and holding opponents to 43.4 percent shooting. Their perimeter defense has been steady, limiting teams to 32.7 percent from three. Jones and Stewart anchor the interior with a combined 18 rebounds per game, and the Liberty average 35.6 boards as a team. Turnovers remain a concern, as they give it away 14.6 times per game. Against a disciplined Las Vegas team, New York must avoid the careless stretches that have cost them recently.
For New York to compete, they must control the pace and avoid long defensive lapses. Las Vegas punishes slow rotations, so the Liberty need sharp communication and consistent rebounding. Their offense can match anyone when they stay organized, but they must also limit transition mistakes and keep the Aces out of rhythm. If New York maintains composure and avoids the second‑half collapses that have hurt them twice in a row, they can push this matchup deep into the fourth quarter.
Las Vegas Aces Team Notes
Las Vegas enters this matchup playing some of their best basketball of the season after a dominant 92–73 win over Golden State to move to 11-4 on the year. Jackie Young led the way with 21 points on 9‑of‑12 shooting, while A’ja Wilson added 19 points and nine rebounds. NaLyssa Smith scored 14 on 6‑of‑7 shooting, and Chelsea Gray controlled the game with 15 points and nine assists. The Aces shot 62 percent from the field and held the Valkyries to 17 percent from three. They’ve now won two straight and eight of their last nine.
Offensively, Las Vegas averages 90.1 points per game and shoots 48.8 percent from the field. Wilson leads the WNBA at 25.7 points per game, while Young adds 15.4 with strong perimeter volume. Gray continues to orchestrate the offense at a high level, averaging 7.3 assists per game. The Aces shoot 36.8 percent from three and 54.7 percent on twos, both elite marks. Their spacing and interior balance make them one of the toughest teams to guard in the league. Chennedy Carter (14.4 ppg) missed the win over Golden State and is questionable for this one.
Defensively, Las Vegas has tightened up significantly, allowing 85.7 points per game and holding opponents to 43.3 percent shooting. Their three‑point defense has been excellent, limiting teams to 35.6 percent from deep. Wilson anchors the paint with 9.1 rebounds per game and strong rim protection, while Young and Gray pressure ballhandlers and disrupt passing lanes. The Aces also rebound well, averaging 35.7 boards per game. Their ability to control both ends has fueled their recent surge.
For Las Vegas to keep rolling, they must dictate tempo and force New York into difficult half‑court possessions. The Aces thrive when they push early and create mismatches before defenses get set. They also need to stay disciplined on the glass, as New York’s frontcourt can punish second‑chance opportunities. If Las Vegas maintains defensive pressure and avoids foul trouble, they’re positioned to enter the Commissioner’s Cup Finals on June 30th with momentum.
Liberty vs Aces Predictions
Las Vegas -2.5 fits because this spot favors a team playing confident basketball in its own building with something to prove. The Aces know the Commissioner’s Cup Final will be in New York, and this becomes their chance to set the tone before that rematch. New York enters on a two‑game slide, and their late‑game execution has slipped in both losses. Las Vegas has been sharper, steadier, and far more consistent over the last two weeks. With momentum and home energy behind them, the Aces are positioned to cover.
The Over 174.5 also lines up with how these teams typically play when both offenses are rolling. Las Vegas pushes tempo at home, and New York rarely slows the game when they’re chasing. Both teams shoot efficiently, both rely on early offense, and neither side hesitates to fire from deep. The Aces have been scoring in waves, while the Liberty still generates clean looks even when their defense falters. A fast rhythm and high shot volume should keep the scoreboard moving throughout.
The combination of Las Vegas and the Over works because the projected script leans toward pace, shot‑making, and long scoring stretches. The Aces should dictate tempo early, and New York has enough firepower to keep the game from tightening into a grind. That usually produces a matchup where both teams trade runs, but the home side maintains control late. With both offenses capable of pushing this into the high 170s, the spread and total complement each other cleanly.
Final Predictions: Las Vegas -2.5 & Over 174.5
Featured Image: Lucas Peltier-Imagn Images
