As the NBA Playoffs enter round two, the Memphis Grizzlies await their NBA lottery fate this Sunday. They are hopeful their sixth-best odds land in a position to take someone who will help transition their rebuild back to playoff contention. While they aspire to make it back, a key stat has to be at the top of mind. The Grizzlies’ path to title contention may depend more on playoff seeding than many fans realize.
According to the data by LandOfBasketball.com, nearly 97.5% of NBA champions have come from a top-three playoff seed. Only two champions have accomplished that feat with a lower seed: the 1969 fourth-seeded Celtics and the 1995 sixth-seeded Houston Rockets. If Memphis wants to become a legitimate title contender, climbing back into the top tier of the conference is necessary.
The Memphis Grizzlies’ Path To Title Contention Starts With Playoff Seeding
Lower Seeded Upsets Have An Expiration
A couple of lower seeds pulled off upsets in the first round of the playoffs this season, with the sixth-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves and seventh-seeded Philadelphia 76ers advancing. The Grizzlies have experience on the wrong end of that as the seventh-seeded Los Angeles Lakers upset second-seeded Memphis in 2023.
They also have experience on the right side when eighth-seeded Memphis defeated the top-seeded San Antonio Spurs in 2011. While upsets generally happen, history suggests that they don’t lead to championships. For example, that same 2011 Grizzlies team lost in seven games to the Oklahoma City Thunder in the second round.
That makes the numbers behind the Grizzlies’ path to title contention hard to ignore. With only two teams seeded below the top three winning a championship, just making it to the playoffs doesn’t give you a real chance to win it all. It may seem like the NBA’s regular season isn’t important, but the real championship contenders treat it with importance.
That reality should shape how they approach their roster construction and player development plan this summer, as the Grizzlies’ path to title contention depends on it.
What Memphis Must Become
It’s easier said than done, but the Thunder should be who the Grizzlies strive to become. While that’s true for every team, the Thunder’s jump from a 10th seed in 2023 to the top seed in 2024 should give Memphis motivation. Also, the Spurs made a jump from 13th last season to the second seed this season. So, it’s not just one team that has made a significant jump recently, and both are in the same conference as Memphis.
The Grizzlies’ path to title contention ultimately comes down to consistency. They have already shown flashes of what a high-seeded contender can look like. The franchise secured back-to-back number two seeds during the 2021-22 and 2022-23 seasons. However, they don’t have long playoff runs to show for it, and bottomed out this season. The challenge now is building a version of the roster capable of sustaining that level over more than two seasons.
The top seeds win because they usually have the best combinations of talent, chemistry, and structure. The Grizzlies’ previous era had the talent and took the regular season seriously, with Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Desmond Bane at the lead. However, they fell short in the playoffs. They now have the task of building a team capable of carrying those advantages into the playoffs.
Featured Image: Petre Thomas-Imagn Images
