This evening, the Texas A&M Aggies will grapple with the St. Mary’s Gaels at Paycom Center in Oklahoma City in an intriguing Round of 64 matchup.
The Aggies got an at-large bid to the Big Dance, thanks to a 21-11 overall record and an 11-7 mark within the SEC. However, A&M fell 83-63 to Oklahoma in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals. Saint Mary’s also got here via an at-large bid after going 27-5 overall and 16-2 within the WCC. They fell to Santa Clara by a score of 76-71 in the Semis of the WCC Tournament.
Which team will bounce back from tough conference tournament losses? Read on to see my Texas A&M vs St. Mary’s prediction.
Texas A&M Aggies vs St. Mary’s Gaels: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: St. Mary’s -3: Over/Under 148
Texas A&M Aggies
Texas A&M enters the NCAA Tournament at 21-11 after an 83-63 loss to Oklahoma in the SEC quarterfinals. The Aggies earned an at‑large bid behind a strong overall résumé, but their recent form has been shaky. They are 4-7 in their last 11 games, allowing 83.5 points during that stretch.
Offensively, the Aggies average 82.9 points and shoot 43.7%, leaning on Rashaun Agee, who leads with 14.7 points and 8.9 rebounds. Rylan Griffen adds 11.6 points and 2.6 assists, while Marcus Hill contributes 10.8 points. Rubén Dominguez also provides 10.3 points and perimeter shooting. When their guards are efficient, A&M can score in bunches.
Defensively, Texas A&M has struggled late in the season. They allow 81.1 points and give up 44.1% shooting, with opponents hitting 53.6% inside the arc. Their perimeter defense is inconsistent, and they must tighten rotations to avoid giving Saint Mary’s clean looks. The Aggies rebound well with 33.3 boards, but they must limit second‑chance points and avoid foul trouble. Their biggest challenge will be slowing Saint Mary’s disciplined half‑court offense. If A&M can force turnovers and speed up the game, they can disrupt the Gaels’ rhythm.
For Texas A&M to advance, they need Agee to control the paint and Griffen to provide efficient scoring. Hill must create tempo, and Dominguez must hit timely 3s. The Aggies also need to defend without fouling and avoid the long defensive lapses that have hurt them recently. Their best path is a faster, more physical game where they attack early in the clock and pressure Saint Mary’s ball handlers. If A&M rebounds well and finds consistent offense, they can keep this matchup competitive.
St. Mary’s Gaels
Saint Mary’s enters the NCAA Tournament at 27-5 after falling 76-71 to Santa Clara in the WCC semifinals. The Gaels have been one of the nation’s most consistent teams, going 16-2 in conference play and 8-1 in their last nine games. Their defense has been elite, allowing just 63.8 points during their last nine games. Offensively, Saint Mary’s averages 78.2 points and shoots 46.1%, leaning on Paulius Murauskas, who leads with 18.8 points and 7.7 rebounds. Mikey Lewis adds 14.2 points, while Joshua Dent contributes 13.0 points and 5.7 assists. Their balance and efficiency make them difficult to disrupt.
Defensively, Saint Mary’s is one of the best units in the field. They allow 64.6 points and hold opponents to 40.5% shooting, including just 30.9% from three. Their rebounding is excellent at 40.3 boards, and they rarely give up second‑chance opportunities. The Gaels excel at forcing long possessions and limiting transition scoring. Their biggest challenge will be containing A&M’s athleticism and preventing Agee from dominating the paint. If Saint Mary’s controls tempo and keeps the game in the half court, their defense can dictate the matchup.
For the Gaels to win, they need Murauskas to establish early scoring, Lewis to provide perimeter pressure, and Dent to control pace. Andrew McKeever also plays a key role with 9.2 rebounds and interior defense. The Gaels’ best path is a slow, methodical game where they limit turnovers and force A&M into contested jumpers. If St. Mary’s maintains defensive discipline and executes their half‑court sets, they are well positioned to advance to the Round of 32.
Predictions
Saint Mary’s enters this matchup in far better form, winning eight of their last nine and allowing just 63.8 points during that stretch. Their defense has been elite, and their pace profile supports a controlled, halfcourt game. The Gaels rank 298th in pace, and that slow tempo forces opponents into long, low‑efficiency possessions.
Texas A&M has struggled late, going 4–7 in their last 11 while allowing 83.5 points in that span. The Aggies rely heavily on Agee, Griffen, and Hill, but their defensive issues make it difficult to trust them against a disciplined, structured opponent. With St. Mary’s defending at a high level and controlling tempo, -3 fits the expected matchup.
The total projects lower because both teams trend toward slower, more physical games. Saint Mary’s rarely pushes pace, and their defensive rotations limit transition scoring. Texas A&M has scored well this season, but their recent form has dipped, and they have struggled to generate consistent offense against strong defenses. The Aggies’ last 11 games show major defensive lapses, but their offense has also been inconsistent. Saint Mary’s allows just 64.6 points on the season and forces opponents into late‑clock shots. With the Gaels dictating tempo and A&M struggling to find rhythm, Under 148 matches the expected style.
The most likely script features Saint Mary’s controlling the game through defense, rebounding, and half‑court execution. Murauskas can score efficiently, Lewis can pressure the perimeter, and Dent can manage pace. Texas A&M will compete, but their recent defensive issues and inconsistent scoring make it difficult to keep up in a structured game. Saint Mary’s should limit second‑chance points, defend the arc, and force A&M into contested jumpers. With the Gaels’ defensive edge and slow tempo shaping the matchup, Saint Mary’s -3 and Under 148 align with the most probable flow of this Round of 64 game.
Final Predictions: St. Mary’s -3 & Under 148
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