Despite the clear gap between the top four teams and the rest of the field, there is never a guarantee of success. All four one-seeds seldom make the Final Four together. So who is at risk of an early upset? The NCAA Tournament has lacked the usual Cinderella candidates from double-digit seeds, so the next best option is the eight/nine seeds. Each top seed will have a difficult time navigating their upset-hungry second-round opponents. What will each team have to conquer to avoid the upset? Each one-seed has a chance to be the first eliminated in 2025, so let’s look at what could spoil each team’s championship hopes.
Who Will Be the First 1-seed Eliminated in 2025?
Duke
Round of 32 Opponent: Baylor
Duke is a real national championship threat as long as they remain healthy. The problem is they already aren’t fully healthy. Cooper Flagg returned, but they are without Maliq Brown for the foreseeable future. Flagg is the biggest wild card in the tournament. He looked dynamic in his return, but one wrong move could put him out. However, assuming Duke remains healthy, they have the best combination of offense and defense in the country, ranking in the top five in both. The last three teams to finish in the top five for both categories all won the national championship. Baylor poses a strong offensive threat, but their defense isn’t very strong. It’s unlikely that Duke will be the first one-seed eliminated this year, but anything is possible in March.
Upset Rank: 4
Auburn
Round of 32 Opponent: Creighton
Auburn’s biggest flaw isn’t the nature of their play but how they’ve been playing. Auburn has lost three of their last five games (and one of those wins was an unconvincing effort against Alabama State). If Creighton plays the way they did to beat Louisville, they will give Auburn everything they can handle. Creighton shot incredibly well from three against the Cardinals. Auburn has an elite three-point defense, so that is a matchup to watch. However, nothing matters more than Johni Broome vs. Ryan Kalkbrenner. Broome could win the Wooden Award, but Kalkbrenner is one of the top defensive players in the country. Creighton won’t have to double Broome. The Blue Jays could make the Tigers the first one-seed eliminated this year, but it isn’t as likely as some of the others.
Upset Rank: 3
Florida
Round of 32 Opponent: UConn
I’m sure the Gators weren’t thrilled when the bracket revealed that they potentially had a date with the two-time defending national champions in the second round. Florida has the best offensive efficiency in the country. They have a great defense. There isn’t a clear weakness, yet their game against Norfolk State seemed over before Norfolk State rallied to cut their lead in half. They won handily, but they need to be better throughout the whole game. UConn wouldn’t normally have as good a chance of an upset based on their efficiencies and overall success (15th in offense, 78th in defense, 24-10 record). However, Dan Hurley hasn’t lost a tournament game since 2022. Hurley is an elite coach with a star-studded roster. Maybe they’ve had a championship hangover this season, but the Huskies always show up in March. UConn has the pedigree to make Florida the first one-seed eliminated in 2025.
Upset Rank: 2
Houston
Round of 32 Opponent: Gonzaga
While Gonzaga had a lackluster season in their eyes, they are as dangerous as ever. Houston has the dynamic defense they always do, but their offense continues to be the biggest question mark. While they are 11th in offensive efficiency, their pace and style don’t always translate well. I give this Houston team a better chance than others to fall into their typical trap against better teams, but they will have their hands full in the round of 32. Gonzaga steamrolled Georgia and looked unstoppable on offense. The Cougars can’t keep up with Gonzaga if they play that well on offense again. While that is unlikely, Gonzaga is one team that can stay hot over a long stretch. The Zags could easily make Houston the first one-seed eliminated in 2025.
Upset Rank: 1
The Last Word
Each team could be knocked off this weekend. However, if I had to choose, I’d take Houston. I could see Houston making a run to the Final Four and winning the championship in nearby San Antonio. However, Gonzaga is a huge brand filled with talent. Mark Few is an elite coach. It will take a strong effort from the Cougars to avoid the upset. The upset is not a guarantee, but I’d figure this is more likely than some of the double-digit seed upsets.
If each team advances to the Sweet Sixteen, things change. I see Houston with the best chance to advance to the Elite Eight, while Duke could have a tough matchup against Arizona or Oregon waiting for them. As always, the unpredictability of March is unpredictable. If there was a year for all four one-seeds to make the Final Four, it could be this year. They also could all lose before the Final Four. That’s the beauty of March Madness.
Photo credit: © Nick Tre. Smith-Imagn Images
