Friday evening on the WNBA hardwood, and we will break down the Mercury vs Liberty contest. Last year, the Phoenix Mercury were in the WNBA Finals, but they are now 2-6 to start the year after an 84-74 loss to the New York Liberty at the Barclays Center. New York broke a three-game slide with the win over Phoenix and are now 4-4 on the year. Continue reading to see my Mercury vs Liberty prediction.
Mercury vs Liberty: Prediction, Preview Odds
Current Odds
New York -6.5; Over/Under 169.5
Phoenix Mercury
Phoenix enters Friday’s matchup at 2-6, a surprising start for a team that reached the WNBA Finals last season. The Mercury never found a consistent rhythm in Wednesday’s loss, shooting below their season averages and struggling again from deep. Kahleah Copper leads the team at 18.8 points per game, but her efficiency has dipped, especially from 3-point range. Alyssa Thomas continues to be the stabilizer with 16.9 points, 7.8 rebounds, and 8.1 assists, giving Phoenix a reliable interior presence and a playmaking hub. Jovana Nogić has been a bright spot with 14.0 points per game and elite 3‑point accuracy at 52 percent. Phoenix averages 85.6 points per game but ranks near the bottom of the league in overall shooting and perimeter efficiency. Their offense has produced in stretches, but the consistency simply hasn’t been there.
Defensively, the Mercury have struggled to contain spacing and perimeter movement. Opponents shoot 45.3 percent from the field and 39.2 percent from three, and Phoenix often loses key possessions on the defensive glass. Natasha Mack has been strong inside with 8.1 rebounds per game and excellent finishing, but the Mercury still allow 33.9 rebounds per game. Their transition defense has also been inconsistent, which hurt them again on Wednesday as New York controlled the pace for most of the night. Phoenix must tighten rotations, communicate better on switches, and avoid the long defensive lapses that have cost them in several close games. Their margin for error shrinks when they fall behind early.
For Phoenix to avoid dropping to 2-7, they must control the tempo and lean on Thomas’ playmaking to create cleaner looks. Copper needs an efficient scoring night, and the Mercury must hit enough threes to keep New York from collapsing into the paint. Their effort on the glass must also improve, especially on the defensive end, where they’ve been outworked in multiple stretches. Phoenix also needs to limit turnovers, as giveaways have fueled opponent runs throughout the season. If they slow the game, win the physical battles, and get consistent production from their top scorers, they can push this matchup deeper and give themselves a chance to steal one on the road.
New York Liberty
New York enters Friday at 4-4 after snapping a three‑game slide against Phoenix on Wednesday. The Liberty looked far more connected offensively, leaning on Breanna Stewart, who is averaging 20.0 points and 8.6 rebounds while shooting 44.9 percent from the field. Marine Johannes has been a major perimeter weapon at 12.6 points per game while hitting 43.5 percent from three on nearly eight attempts per night. Jonquel Jones continues to anchor the interior with 13.1 points and 8.4 rebounds, giving New York a steady two‑level scoring option. Pauline Astier has also emerged as a reliable secondary scorer at 11.5 points per game on an impressive 59.3 percent shooting clip. Even with Sabrina Ionescu limited to one game and questionable again, New York’s depth and spacing have kept the offense functional.
Defensively, the Liberty have been one of the league’s steadier units through eight games. They allow just 85.1 points per game and hold opponents to 42.9 percent shooting. Their perimeter defense has been strong — limiting teams to 33.6 percent from deep — and their rebounding has been solid at 33.0 boards per game. Stewart and Jones combine for nearly 15 rebounds per night, and their length helps New York control the paint without over‑fouling. The Liberty also force 12.3 turnovers per game and rarely give up easy free‑throw opportunities, with opponents averaging only 19.9 attempts. Their defensive structure has kept them competitive even during offensive droughts, and Wednesday’s win showed how effective they can be when both ends align.
For New York to climb above .500, they must continue leaning on their balanced scoring and disciplined defensive identity. Stewart and Jones give them matchup advantages in most frontcourts, and Johannes’ shooting stretches defenses in ways Phoenix struggled to handle. If Ionescu remains out or limited, Astier and Betnijah Laney‑Hamilton must continue providing steady guard play and clean decision‑making. New York also needs to stay sharp on the defensive glass, as Phoenix thrives on physicality and second‑chance pressure. If the Liberty protect the arc, avoid careless turnovers, and maintain the same pace control they showed Wednesday, they are well-positioned to secure another win and build momentum heading into June.
Predictions
New York –6.5 fits the way this matchup has tilted whenever the Liberty control the tempo and force the Mercury into longer possessions. Their spacing and ball movement create natural separation over four quarters, and that usually widens margins against teams struggling to score efficiently. Phoenix has opened the season with uneven offensive stretches, and those lulls tend to show up on the road. New York’s ability to string together clean defensive stands gives them more chances to build runs, and their efficiency profile often holds up better in slower games. With the Liberty trending upward after Wednesday’s win and Phoenix still searching for rhythm, the matchup leans toward New York covering the number at home.
The Under 168.5 also aligns with how these teams have played through the first eight games. Both sides have leaned on half‑court possessions, and neither has consistently pushed pace for long stretches. Phoenix’s offense has been streaky, and their shooting numbers suggest more grinding possessions than free‑flowing runs. New York’s defensive structure also limits transition chances, which keeps totals from climbing too quickly. When these teams settle into a slower rhythm, the scoring usually comes in controlled bursts rather than extended surges. With both sides likely leaning on efficiency and discipline rather than speed, the Under pairs naturally with the Liberty side for this matchup.
Final Predictions: New York -6.5 & Under 168.5
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