Thursday evening on the college hardwood, and we have a Tulsa vs New Mexico matchup to break down. This is the NIT Tournament semifinals, which will be played at Hinkle Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Indiana. Tulsa got here with home wins over Stephen F. Austin, UNLV, and Wichita State. That now puts them at 29-7 on the year, including 9-1 in their last 10 games. New Mexico reached the semifinals with home wins over Sam Houston State, George Washington, and St. Joe’s, moving to 26-10 on the year. They have won four of their last five games after losing three of their previous four. Which team will move on to the NIT Tournament Finals? Continue reading to see my Tulsa vs New Mexico prediction.
Tulsa vs New Mexico: NIT Tournament Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: New Mexico -3.5; Over/Under 161.5
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
Tulsa enters the NIT semifinals amid one of the strongest stretches of their season. The Golden Hurricane have won nine of their last ten, and their confidence has grown with each round. Tulsa averages 85.4 points, shoots 47.0%, and leans on Tylen Riley, who leads with 15.0 points and 4.4 assists. David Green adds scoring versatility, while Miles Barnstable and Ade Popoola provide balance and perimeter punch. Tulsa’s spacing and three‑point shooting have been major weapons throughout the tournament.
Defensively, Tulsa allows 73.3 points, holds opponents to 42.6% shooting, and rebounds well with 38.7 boards per game. Their biggest challenge will be to contain New Mexico’s interior strength and prevent second‑chance opportunities. Tulsa must also stay disciplined in transition, as New Mexico thrives when pushing pace. If the Golden Hurricane maintain their defensive structure, they can keep this matchup tight.
For Tulsa to advance, they need efficient shooting, strong ball movement, and consistent rebounding. Riley must guide the tempo, Green must provide steady scoring, and Barnstable must stretch the floor. Tulsa has been one of the most explosive teams in the NIT, and its recent form suggests they can challenge New Mexico’s physicality. If the Golden Hurricane limit turnovers and control the perimeter, they can push this game deep into the second half.
New Mexico Lobos
New Mexico enters the semifinals continuing a strong postseason rebound. The Lobos have won four of their last five, recovering well after a late‑season slump. New Mexico averages 81.5 points, shoots 46.3%, and relies on Jake Hall, who leads with 16.3 points. Tomislav Buljan adds interior dominance, while Deyton Albury and Uriah Tenette provide balance and perimeter scoring. New Mexico’s blend of size, athleticism, and shot‑making gives them multiple ways to attack.
Defensively, New Mexico allows 70.8 points, holds opponents to 41.9% shooting, and rebounds well with 36.9 boards per game. Their biggest challenges will be to contain Tulsa’s perimeter attack and prevent early‑clock threes. New Mexico must also defend without fouling, as Tulsa thrives at the free‑throw line. If the Lobos maintain their defensive discipline, they can dictate the tempo.
For New Mexico to reach the NIT title game, they need strong interior play, efficient shooting, and consistent defensive pressure. Hall must set the tone, Buljan must control the paint, and Albury must manage the tempo. New Mexico has been one of the most balanced teams in the field, and their physicality gives them a major advantage. If the Lobos control possessions and limit Tulsa’s three‑point looks, they are well-positioned to advance.
Predictions
New Mexico enters this matchup with strong momentum, and their recent surge suggests they are built for this stage. Tulsa has been excellent, but New Mexico’s blend of pace, physicality, and scoring depth gives them a clearer path to control stretches. The Lobos also match up well with Tulsa’s perimeter‑heavy style, which should help them create separation as the game progresses. Tulsa will land punches, but New Mexico’s ability to generate consistent offense in multiple ways gives them the edge. With the Lobos trending upward and playing with confidence, New Mexico -3.5 fits the projected direction.
The total trends higher because both teams thrive in fast‑paced environments and rarely shy away from early‑clock shots. Tulsa pushes the tempo naturally, and New Mexico is comfortable matching that speed. That combination creates long stretches of trading baskets and minimizes the number of slow possessions. Both teams also shoot the three well and attack the rim aggressively, which increases scoring efficiency. With two offenses built for pace and rhythm, Over 161.5 aligns with the expected flow.
The most likely script features a game where both teams score in waves, but New Mexico’s balance allows them to maintain control late. Tulsa will keep up the pressure with perimeter shooting, yet the Lobos’ ability to score inside and out should create steady production. Expect a high‑tempo matchup with quick possessions, open‑floor opportunities, and very few extended scoring droughts. With New Mexico positioned to dictate key stretches and the pace trending fast, New Mexico -3.5 and Over 161.5 match the most probable outcome of this NIT semifinal.
Final Predictions: New Mexico -3.5 & Over 161.5
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