We move on to the second round of the SEC Tournament and take a look at the game between the Auburn Tigers and the Tennessee Volunteers. The Tigers enter this contest at 17-15 overall, including just 7-11 in league play. Tennessee has had a solid season overall as they have gone 21-10 on the year and 11-7 within the SEC. The Volunteers took the lone regular-season meeting at home by a score of 77-69. Both teams struggled a bit down the stretch, so which team will right the ship in this one? Read on to see my Auburn vs Tennesee prediction.
Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers: Prediction, Preview, Odds
Odds: Tennessee -5.5; Over/Under 147.5
Auburn Tigers
Auburn enters this matchup with a dangerous offensive profile. In SEC play, the Tigers averaged 81.8 points per game and shot 45.3 percent from the field. They also led the league in free throws made and free throws attempted. That matters in March. Keyshawn Hall is the centerpiece of everything Auburn does. He is averaging 20.4 points, 6.9 rebounds, and 2.7 assists. Tahaad Pettiford adds 15.2 points and 3.6 assists, while Kevin Overton chips in 13.3 points. KeShawn Murphy gives Auburn another interior option with 10.6 points and 6.8 rebounds. Hall also arrived at Auburn after an All-Big 12 season at UCF, where he averaged 18.8 points and 7.1 rebounds in 2024-25. Auburn lists him as a senior forward and one of the SEC’s top scorers and rebounders.
The Auburn offense can stress Tennessee in several ways. Pettiford can break down defenders off the bounce. Hall can score through contact or punish switches from the wing. Overton gives Auburn another shot-maker, and Murphy helps clean up misses around the rim. Elyjah Freeman and Sebastian Williams-Adams add more length and athleticism.
Auburn’s biggest edge is foul pressure. The Tigers attempted 27.1 free throws per SEC game, which was the best mark in the league. They also committed only 9.6 turnovers per conference game, another strong number. That combination is valuable in the SEC Tournament. Auburn does not need elite three-point volume to score. The Tigers can win with downhill drives, post touches, and second chances. If Hall and Pettiford get into the paint early, Tennessee’s defense will have to rotate perfectly for forty minutes.
Auburn’s concern is on the defensive end. In SEC play, the Tigers allowed 82.7 points per game and 48.5 percent shooting. Opponents also hit 39.9 percent from three against them. Those numbers are hard to ignore in a win-or-go-home setting. Auburn must rebound with discipline and finish possessions. Tennessee averaged 38.5 rebounds and 14.7 offensive boards in league play, so one stop may not be enough. Hall, Murphy, and Freeman need to be active on the glass. Pettiford and Overton must stay attached at the point of attack.
Auburn’s winning formula is clear for this SEC Tournament second-round game. Get to the foul line, keep turnovers low, and avoid giving Tennessee extra possessions. If the Tigers control tempo and make Tennessee guard in space, Auburn has enough scoring punch to reach the quarterfinals.
Tennessee Volunteers
Tennessee brings a different identity into this SEC Tournament contest. The Volunteers are built around rebounding, balance, and half-court defense. In SEC play, Tennessee averaged 77.3 points, 38.5 rebounds, and 15.2 assists per game. The Vols also held opponents to 73.6 points and 43.6 percent shooting. Those are strong March numbers. Ja’Kobi Gillespie is the engine of the offense. He is averaging 18.0 points and 5.6 assists. Freshman Nate Ament has been terrific, posting 17.4 points and 6.4 rebounds, but he is listed as questionable for this one. J.P. Estrella adds 10.2 points in the frontcourt, while Felix Okpara gives Tennessee 7.7 points and 6.2 rebounds. Jaylen Carey adds another 7.3 points and 6.2 rebounds. Bishop Boswell’s 6.6 points, 4.6 rebounds, and 2.9 assists also make him an important glue piece.
Tennessee’s clearest edge is physical play around the basket. The Volunteers led the SEC in offensive rebounds at 14.7 per conference game. They also ranked second in total rebounds. That can wear teams down fast in tournament settings. Okpara, Carey, and Estrella can extend possessions even when the first shot misses. Gillespie gives Tennessee steady control in the backcourt. He can change pace, get downhill, and create clean looks for teammates. Ament raises the ceiling because he can score from several spots on the floor.
Tennessee is not a high-volume three-point team. The Vols made 5.9 threes per SEC game and shot 33.0 percent from deep. Still, they can win without bombing away. They score through paint touches, ball movement, and relentless work on the glass. That style usually travels well in March.
The path to a Tennessee win starts with discipline. Auburn led the SEC in free throws made and free throws attempted during conference play. Tennessee cannot let Hall and Pettiford turn this game into a parade to the stripe. The Volunteers also should challenge Auburn’s defense early. The Tigers allowed 28.1 field goals per SEC game and struggled to defend efficiently in league play. Even without huge three-point volume, Tennessee can exploit that with drives, cuts, and kick-outs. Gillespie must set the tone at point guard. Ament must force Auburn into difficult wing matchups. Okpara, Carey, and Estrella must own the backboards. If Tennessee wins second-chance points and keeps Hall from controlling the foul line, the Vols will have a strong chance to grind out this SEC Tournament second-round matchup.
Predictions
My Auburn vs Tennessee prediction backs the Volunteers -5.5 in this SEC Tournament matchup. Tennessee brings the better defensive profile into this game. The Vols allowed 73.6 points per game in SEC play. Auburn allowed 82.7. That gap is tough to ignore in March. Tennessee also allowed only 26.3 rebounds per game, which led the SEC. Gillespie gives the Vols control in late-clock possessions. Nate Ament adds another scorer who can punish switches and soft closeouts. Auburn has real firepower with Hall and Pettiford. Hall is strong enough to finish through contact. Pettiford can break down defenders off the bounce. Still, Tennessee looks better built to create separation. The Vols rebound, defend, and execute with more consistency. That is why Tennessee -5.5 stands out in this Auburn vs Tennessee prediction.
The Under 147.5 also makes sense because Tennessee can turn this into a physical half-court game. The Vols averaged 38.5 rebounds and 14.7 offensive boards in SEC play. That style often slows pace and limits easy transition points. Tennessee is not a high-volume three-point team, either. The Vols made only 5.9 threes per conference game. Auburn can score in bunches, but much of that damage came at the foul line. The Tigers led the SEC with 20.6 made free throws per game. They also attempted a league-high 27.1 free throws. If Tennessee avoids cheap fouls, Auburn’s scoring ceiling drops. That is a huge factor for this total. Fewer free points usually help the Under. A tougher whistle and stronger rebounding could keep this SEC Tournament game below 147.5.
The best script for both bets is Tennessee controlling the glass and forcing Auburn into tougher shots late in possessions. Okpara, Estrella, and Carey can wear down Auburn’s frontcourt. That matters over forty minutes. Hall should still have productive stretches, and Pettiford can create offense when plays break down. Overton gives Auburn another scorer on the wing. Even so, Tennessee’s balance looks more reliable. Gillespie should settle the offense, while Ament attacks gaps when Auburn overhelps. Tennessee does not need a track meet to cover this number. The Vols just need steady defense, second-chance points, and smart late-game execution. That formula fits both wagers nicely.
Tennessee -5.5: Under 147.5
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