6. Houston
The Cougars have righted the ship after their 3-game slide in February, but I still have a little bit of concern. They currently own zero wins over the top-15 teams on KenPom, and rank 2nd-to-last nationally in average 2-point distance, trailing only Mississippi Valley State. Anytime you’re in the same conversation as MVSU, that’s not a good thing. There does exist a path for them to win a National Championship, but it’s a narrow one.
7. Michigan State
The Spartans get this spot by virtue of beating Purdue in Mackey Arena. This team, to me, has the feel of one that will not lose to an inferior opponent before the Sweet 16, but lacks the true upside to win the National Championship unless Tom Izzo pulls some March magic out of his hat.
8. Iowa State
The Cyclones get this spot by virtue of beating Purdue in Mackey Arena. The most interesting development for this team has been that TJ Otzelberger has seemingly finally realized that his team needs more shooting and spacing, and has been giving more minutes to freshman flamethrower Jamarion Batemon. Will this continue into the postseason?
9. Purdue
Man, the Boilermakers lost a lot of games at Mackey Arena this season. Potentially good news for them is that they won’t play again in their own arena this season. I would love to see Braden Smith and Trey Kaufman-Renn go out with a Final Four run, but I worry about them running into a team that can bury them with athleticism and length at all 5 positions.
10. Gonzaga
The Zags can answer a lot of questions about them with how they perform in the WCC Tournament over the next two days, as well as who they have available to play in this tournament and beyond. Braden Huff has still not been ruled out for the season, and would provide a big lift if he can return to the lineup.
