The 2025 NBA Draft Lottery will take place on Monday, May 12. With the new draft lottery odds taking place a few years back, no team has better
than a 14% chance of earning the first overall pick. This year’s June draft has a clear-cut choice for being selected first in Duke forward Cooper Flagg. While the main focus will be who gets to select first overall for many who tune in, there are other things to watch out for in the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery as well.
What To Watch For In Monday’s 2025 NBA Draft Lottery
Who Will Get The First Overall Pick? (Duh)
Of course, in every draft lottery regardless of the draft prospects, fans of teams in the lottery have their fingers crossed that their favorite squad wins the lottery, and thus gets that top overall pick. That is doubly true when there is a Flagg, Victor Wembanyama, or LeBron James out there to be drafted.
There are three teams with a 14% chance of garnering the first pick. Those are the three teams that had the three-worst records this season in the Utah Jazz, Washington Wizards, and Charlotte Hornets. Winning the lottery can help jump-start each team’s rebuild by giving them a cornerstone piece in Flagg.
Altogether, there are 13 teams that have some type of shot of winning the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery. One of those teams is the Houston Rockets, who were the second seed in the Western Conference. Houston acquired the Phoenix Suns first round pick in a pick swap with the Brooklyn Nets.
Other than the three teams with a 14% chance, here are the odds for the other draft lottery teams to earn the first overall selection.
New Orleans Pelicans – 12.5%
Philadelphia 76ers – 10.5%
Brooklyn Nets – 9%
Toronto Raptors – 7.5%
San Antonio Spurs – 6.7% (6% from their own pick, 0.7% from the first round pick acquired from the Atlanta Hawks in the 2022 Dejounte Murray trade)
Houston Rockets – 3.8%
Portland Trail Blazers – 3.7%
Dallas Mavericks – 1.8%
Chicago Bulls – 1.7%
Sacramento Kings – 0.8%
Will 76ers Keep Their Pick?
It was a disastrous season for the 76ers. Entering the season with championship aspirations, Philadelphia instead finished with a miserable 24-58 record. Joel Embiid couldn’t stay healthy, and Paul George had numerous struggles in his first year with the team.
A silver lining could be a high draft pick in a 2025 NBA Draft with many other excellent prospects beyond Flagg. Will they get a chance to
use their first round pick? Their first rounder will go to the Oklahoma City Thunder if it falls outside the top six. There is a 36% chance that the draft lottery places the 76ers at seventh, eighth, or ninth, meaning the pick would go to OKC.
Kings Hope To Defy The Odds
The Kings are certainly hoping to defy the lottery odds and get to keep their first round pick. If they don’t hear their name called for picks 13 or 14, they will have known they have done so. The problem is that there is a 96.2% chance that it does land at one of those two choices. Otherwise, their pick moving up to the top four has a 3.8%
chance of occurring, and they will get to keep their first round selection. The pick will go to the Atlanta Hawks if it lands at 13th or 14th.
Top 4 Picks Now Determined By Ping Pong Balls
Starting in 2019, the top four picks began being selected by the lottery rather than the top three. The three previously mentioned teams with a 14% chance of the first pick (Jazz, Wizards, Hornets), have a 52.1% chance at a top four selection. There are eight teams that have better than a one-in-four chance at acquiring a pick no
worse than fourth. The other five teams that have at least a 29.7% shot of picking in the top four are the Pelicans, 76ers, Nets, Raptors, and Spurs.
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