Following the final chapter of Caleb Love vs. Duke, Duke fans couldn’t help but feel relieved to keep dancing into the Elite Eight. Duke scored 100 points. That’s unsurprising for the Blue Devils, as their offense is ranked first in defensive efficiency, according to KenPom. If you had told Duke fans that they scored 100 points against Arizona, many would think the game ended in another blowout. That was far from the case, as Arizona put up 93 points. Arizona has the 11th offensive efficiency in the country, but Duke’s defense should have been too good to allow so many points to the Wildcats. Duke plays Alabama in the Elite Eight on Saturday. 100 points may not be enough to beat them if Alabama plays like they did against BYU. So, what will decide the Elite Eight matchup?
Will Duke’s Defense be a Problem in Elite Eight vs. Alabama?
Scoring Won’t Be the Problem for the Blue Devils
Duke can score on virtually any defense in the country, especially how they’re playing now on offense. However, Duke’s game against Alabama in the Elite Eight presents the opportunity to show out. Alabama gave up 88 points to BYU despite the Cougars shooting 6-30 from three. Duke will get to the paint and score with ease. If they can shoot threes? Alabama’s 113-point mark could be broken. Duke runs such a beautiful offense to get easy buckets. Cooper Flagg and Kon Knueppel can break down any defense in the country. Alabama let BYU do it. They’ll certainly let Duke do it.
Defending the Three is the Key
Duke allowed Arizona to shoot 12-26 from three in the Sweet Sixteen. That percentage is only slightly below what Alabama did to BYU in their 25-three barrage. If Duke hopes to beat Alabama in the Elite Eight, they’ll need to shut down the three-point line. On the season, Duke is tied for 37th in three-point defense, allowing opponents to shoot 30.9%. However, Alabama is 17th in threes made this season with 10.4 per game.
This is a strength-on-strength matchup, but Duke has the advantage in size. Alabama is more athletic, but Duke will hold up better athletically than BYU did. Duke can contest threes at a much more consistent rate because they switch most screens. The ability of every Duke player to cover every position is lethal in games like this. Expect a lot of Maliq Brown on Saturday if he is healthy. They won’t need much offensive help against Alabama, so his inclusion in the lineup makes perfect sense. While he isn’t bad on offense, he makes opposing offenses look terrible at times. Duke will hope he can do the same against Alabama in the Elite Eight.
Foul Trouble
Fouls could always be the story in key games. However, this matchup holds more significance. Arizona kept it close because of foul trouble and hitting free throws. Duke was unable to consistently defend shots at the rim because of the foul calls. Arizona shot 21/23 from the free-throw line in the loss. It will be even more important for Duke to avoid foul trouble against Alabama. Alabama may struggle defensively, but they can score on anybody. They also can draw fouls at an elite rate. Alabama ranked in the top seven in both free throws made and attempted in 2025. If Alabama can get Duke into foul trouble, it would add an interior offensive game against Duke. The Blue Devils would have serious problems if Alabama could get both facets of their game going.
Can Duke Survive Alabama in the Elite Eight?
Yes. Duke is the best team in the country and a favorite for the national championship. They will keep this game close to the very end, whether they win or lose. However, Duke’s defense will be the x-factor. If they can stay out of foul trouble and slow down the Crimson Tide’s three-point game, they should have no trouble advancing. However, those are huge ifs. It’s much easier said than done. A spot in the Final Four is on the line. Expect Flagg to show up like we’ve never seen before, and expect Duke to lockdown on defense to a new level. If they execute, they will probably win. If they let Alabama roll, then there’s a good chance the “Roll Tide” chant will roll into San Antonio.
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