The coaching carousel is alive and active. Richard Pitino went to Xavier after Sean Miller went to Texas. NC State hired Will Wade, Virginia hired Ryan Odom, Iowa hired Ben McCollum, and the list goes on. However, none of those compare to the moves made last season. Major coaches moved on and immediately led their team to success. Louisville may have been the most notable change, but Michigan, Arkansas, Kentucky, and BYU all made the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament with first-year head coaches. So which first-year head coach is most likely to lead their team to the Sweet Sixteen upset? Each team will be an underdog, but that hasn’t stopped them so far.
Which First First-Year Head Coach Will Pull Off Sweet Sixteen Upset?
4. Kentucky Over Tennessee
Mark Pope has been a great hire for Kentucky basketball. He has led the Wildcats to the Sweet Sixteen, where Calipari failed to take them in the last few years. However, this game is a rivalry, so it wouldn’t be an upset if the Wildcats pulled it off. If Kentucky were facing the other two seeds in the tournament, I would be more inclined to call it an upset. Kentucky can certainly make the Elite Eight, as rivalries have shown that upsets are common when hatred is high. While I like Tennessee in this particular game, don’t be surprised to see the Wildcats dancing into the weekend.
3. Arkansas Over Texas Tech
John Calipari and the Razorbacks already proved me wrong in the Round of 32, but they would need to pull off another huge upset. Texas Tech has a dynamic offense. Drake plays at a snail’s pace, but Texas Tech still scored 77 points. Arkansas shut down St. John’s mostly because of offensive ineptitude. For Arkansas to pull off the Sweet Sixteen upset, they will need to be much better defensively than they were. Texas Tech will finish at the rim and make more than two threes. Arkansas certainly can advance further, but it doesn’t feel like they will get by playing the way they have. That could change if Adou Thiero returns for the Razorbacks.
2. Michigan Over Auburn
Dusty May has been known to pull off major upsets in the NCAA Tournament. He was one jump shot at the buzzer away from leading a nine-seed to the National Championship game. This Michigan team is very talented. Their size with Vladislav Goldin and Danny Wolf will make life difficult for Auburn. While Auburn has athleticism, Creighton gave them problems with Ryan Kalkbrenner underneath. Michigan has a great frontcourt with athletic guards to help control the game. Auburn can avoid the Sweet Sixteen upset if they play their best basketball. The Tigers are the better team. However, if their play in the first two rounds is a sign of their play on Friday, the Wolverines could advance to the Elite Eight.
1. BYU Over Alabama
Pope left BYU for Kentucky, opening the door for Kevin Young to fill the void. Young has been nothing short of phenomenal, as BYU has lost only three games since January 18. The Cougars nearly collapsed against Wisconsin, but a win is a win. Alabama’s defensive struggles are no secret. BYU can score on anybody. It may not be an exaggeration to say that the first team to score 100 points wins this game. BYU will go blow for blow with Alabama and will keep this game close. This is as much a toss-up as any game. If BYU hopes to pull off the Sweet Sixteen upset, they will need to shoot well from three and defend as well as they can. Neither team will stop the other, whoever hits more shots will win this game.
Will One Pull off the Sweet Sixteen Upset?
There will be an upset. Two of these teams may win if Kentucky wins, but I believe that one of either Arkansas, Michigan, or BYU will win. These teams have tough matchups, but they also have good rosters. This is March Madness. Chalk wouldn’t be fun anyway, so give me an upset or two in the Sweet Sixteen. If I had to choose one upset, I would choose BYU, who I originally had winning this exact game before the NCAA Tournament. Upsets are as alive as ever.
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