The consensus among draft experts, amateurs, and enthusiasts is that Duke freshman forward Cooper Flagg is the top prospect in the 2025 NBA Draft class. That opinion appears to be shared by multiple NBA scouts and executives, which could foreshadow the Maine native being the No. 1 pick next summer. However, right now it’s not Flagg who looks like he should be the first player off the board, but Rutgers guard Dylan Harper.
Ultimately, while Harper is a well-rounded player, there are areas where Flagg is more impactful. At the defensive end, Flagg has more positional versatility and upside as a weakside shot-blocker. Harper doesn’t pull down as many boards as the soon-to-be 18-year-old. Yet, he’s been dominant as a scorer, an area where Flagg has consistently struggled.
Dylan Harper’s Time Has Come, Cooper Flagg Not No. 1
Looking at the numbers, Flagg is averaging 16.6 points per game with a 30.4 percent usage rate. For comparison, Harper is averaging 23.5 points per game game with a 30.7 percent usage rate, all while usually creating for himself off the dribble.
Dylan Harper is getting to the free-throw line in a very professional manner—a blend of pace, craft, touch, and rugged strength rarely seen in college, especially from an 18-y/o freshman. Through 10 games, he has 72 FTAs and 119 points at the rim, the most of any HM player. pic.twitter.com/wesizn0Fto
— League Him (@League_Him) December 13, 2024
When considering their respective efficiencies the contrast is even more apparent. Where Harper is shooting 52.0 percent from the field and 36.4 percent from three, Flagg is shooting 41.8 percent from the field and 24.4 percent from three.
Catch-all stats may favor Flagg overall but Harper presents himself as not just an all-around player but one who can be a featured scorer. A jumbo creator with the uncanny ability to knock down tough shots, Harper is built in the mold of Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander.
Dylan Harper has been unstoppable getting to and finishing at the rim so far. Comparing him to coveted jumbo guard prospects of the past reveals how dominant of a start he’s gotten off to.
He ranks 1st in Rim Rate, FG%, and Dunk Rate while self-creating 71% (!) of those looks. pic.twitter.com/2do1v8cmCV
— Maurya K. (KR) (@TheFlarescreen) November 30, 2024
Notably, Cunningham was the No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA Draft. Gilgeous-Alexander has been a top-five MVP candidate the past two seasons.
Floors & Ceilings
Flagg has a high floor with an indeterminate ceiling.
His pro comparisons have ranged from three-time All-Defensive selection Andrei Kirilenko to Orlando Magic forward Franz Wagner. Point-forwards like five-time All-Star selection Chris Mullin and Toronto Raptors star Scottie Barnes come to mind. If Flagg fails to truly find his offense, his pathway could be similar to Denver Nuggets forward Aaron Gordon.
That amount of variance doesn’t make him as safe a bet as he originally appeared to be as the No. 1 prospect though.
Harper will have his hurdles as well, as he’s not a particularly explosive athlete. Nonetheless, guards with his combination of size and scoring instincts tend to do well at the NBA level. Furthermore, he might not ever be the next LeBron James, but he hasn’t reached his physical peak yet. As he edges closer to it, he could round into All-Star form if he hasn’t already.
