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What’s Next for Dillon Brooks?

It’s disappointing that Dillon Brooks’ trash talk and dubious shot selection have overshadowed his story. Brooks was the 45th pick in the 2017 draft; a player selected at that pick is as likely to play in the G-League as in the NBA. Instead, Brooks played all 82 games his rookie season. He went on to sign a $35 million contract and earn All-Defensive team votes. 

Unfortunately, the upcoming free agent’s time with the Memphis Grizzlies has come to an end. In his exit interview, GM Zach Kleiman told the media, “I’ll hit on (Brooks) another day…Nothing I can comment on for now with him going into free agency.” Kleiman also addressed Memphis’ series loss to the Los Angeles Lakers by saying, “I think there were certainly self-created distractions we were navigating in this series.” Shams Charania provided clarification on May 2nd:

What is in store for Dillon Brooks’ NBA future?

What’s Next for Dillon Brooks?

Pre-Draft Scouting Looks Prescient

Dillon Brooks’ game has evolved significantly after leaving Oregon. One pre-draft scouting report foreshadowed a number of positive and negative aspects about Brooks’ game:

“His strength helps him out on defense as well; even though he lacks length, he uses his strength and physicality to compete for good position and contain the dribble…It is also uncertain whom he will be able to guard at the next level with his lack of elite length or quickness, which causes him to struggle containing quicker guards off the dribble…It is difficult to ignore the advanced mental aspects of Brooks’ game … He never seems to lose confidence and clearly is not afraid of the big moment”

Brooks has both embodied and exceeded this description. He is a tremendous one-on-one defender, with strength and intelligence compensating for a relative lack of length. He isn’t a great shooter, ball handler, or athlete, but at his best his mental fortitude allows him to transcend those limitations and be an impactful scorer.

Dillon Brooks’s mental makeup has allowed him to play at a level that far exceeds a typical second-round pick, but he also landed in the perfect place to realize his potential.

Dillon Brooks’ Time in Memphis

Brooks arrived at a Memphis team caught between identities. The 2016-17 Grizzlies finished 43-39 and lost to the San Antonio Spurs in the first round of the playoffs. Mike Conley and Marc Gasol were playing at a high level, with Gasol making the All-Star team.  Fellow Grit-N-Grindfather Zach Randolph was on the decline, though, and came off the bench that season. Highly-touted free agent Chandler Parsons was hurt and played just 34 games; he would only play 66 more games in his career. 

Brooks’ rookie season was a disaster for the Grizzlies. Conley played just 12 games after suffering a heel injury. Memphis could manage only 22 wins after firing head coach David Fizdale midseason. 

The environment was beneficial for Brooks’ development, however; he shot 44% from the field and 35.6% from three in nearly 29 minutes per game. After missing most of his second season with a toe injury, Brooks averaged 16.2 and 17.2 points per game in his third and fourth seasons, respectively. The Grizzlies made the play-in during the 2020 Bubble postseason and upset the Golden State Warriors in the play-in to make the playoffs in Brooks’ fourth year (2020-21). 

While Brooks’ defense maintained an upward trajectory, his efficiency steadily regressed from his rookie year. Memphis could no longer tolerate him taking shots from Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Jaren Jackson Jr.

2022-23: Dillon Brooks’ Last Season in Memphis?

Brooks’ shot attempts decreased this season. It’s just the second season he’s attempted fewer shots per game than the previous year; his injury-shortened second season was the other. Despite taking almost three fewer shots per game, Brooks shot a career-low from the field (39.6%) with his second-lowest mark from three (32.6%). While his one-on-one defense remained elite, he posted the lowest steal and block rates of his career.

Of course, Brooks has put a negative spotlight on himself by courting controversy. From breaking Gary Payton II’s elbow to hitting Donovan Mitchell and LeBron James in the groin, he’s engaged in reckless behavior on the court that has earned him a reputation as a dirty and dangerous player.

He’s also “earned and embraced the nickname “Dillon the Villain“ by needlessly needling the NBA’s all-time leading scorer. Brooks has quickly become a lightning rod for the wrong reasons, and doesn’t appear ready to accept the consequences.

Potential Dillon Brooks Destinations

For all his warts, Dillon Brooks is a 6’7” wing, a perennial All-Defensive Team candidate, and a threat on offense. He should be in line for a raise after earning $11.4 million last season. Let’s assume Brooks will receive a contract worth around $20 million annually. That number is directly between what free agents Collin Sexton and Anfernee Simons commanded annually last season.  Who might be interested in his services?

The Cap Space Teams

Per Spotrac, the Houston Rockets, Indiana Pacers, San Antonio Spurs, Detroit Pistons, and Oklahoma City Thunder should easily have the cap space to sign Brooks. Of those teams, the Thunder seem least likely to be interested given Brooks’ similarity to Luguentz Dort. 

The Spurs rarely sign significant free agents, and seem content to rebuild slowly, while the Rockets have been linked to bigger names like potential free agents James Harden, Khris Middleton, and Jaylen Brown (who is signed through 2023-24). 

In a letter to Pistons fans, Detroit GM Troy Weaver wrote, 

“We are in an excellent spot to upgrade our roster this offseason…We’ve positioned ourselves for another high draft choice in this year’s draft, we have a favorable salary cap position, and we’ll continue to talk with teams and evaluate trade opportunities as they present themselves.” 

Brooks would help fill the void on the wing after Weaver exchanged Saddiq Bey for James Wiseman at the trade deadline. Brooks would step in as Detroit’s perimeter defensive stopper, and he fits the culture of toughness historically valued in Detroit.

The Pacers rarely have shown the patience for extended rebuilds. They will likely look to improve the team after Tyrese Haliburton’s emergence and extending Myles Turner. Brooks would step into the Pacers’ gaping hole and small forward, and could be a tough veteran enforcer for Haliburton and the emerging Bennedict Mathurin.

The Player Option Teams

Depending on some player option decisions, the Utah Jazz and Toronto Raptors could both be in play for Brooks. It’s hard to see Utah having interest. They’ve just started their rebuild, and would probably prefer to develop younger swingmen Sexton (who plays shooting guard as well as point guard), Ochai Agbaji, and Talen Horton-Tucker (if he picks up his player option).

Brooks is an Ontario native, and the Raptors seem to be linked to every Canadian-born player. Memphis tried to send Brooks to Toronto in exchange for OG Anunoby at the trade deadline. If Fred VanVleet and Gary Trent Jr. leave as free agents, could Brooks team with Anunoby? 

Brooks would be a natural replacement for Trent; he’s a worse shooter, but his tenacious defense could help propel the Raptors to become a top-5 defense next season. They’d be left without a point guard, but free agents Jordan Clarkson or Coby White could be lower-cost replacement options.

The Team Option/Renouncing Rights Teams

Now things get spicy. The Sacramento Kings had a dream season before bowing out to the Golden State Warriors in seven games. They were out-toughed by Draymond Green and Kevon Looney, and ran out of reliable defensive options to guard Stephen Curry. Brooks would help on both counts and comes with significant postseason experience. His scoring efficiency could improve by being set up by Domantas Sabonis in Sacramento’s egalitarian offense.

Sacramento would need to renounce Harrison Barnes’ cap hold in order to sign Brooks, and they may need to say goodbye to Terence Davis and Alex Len as well. Barnes made himself expendable with his performance against Golden State. If Monte McNair can add Brooks and Sasha Vezenkov, Sacramento would have to feel good about their offseason.

The Cleveland Cavaliers are another interesting option. The path to the requisite cap space would be painful. They’d likely need to renounce Caris LeVert’s cap hold, unguarantee the 2023-24 season on Cedi Osman’s contract, not extend Dylan Windler a qualifying offer, and say goodbye to a number of other lower-roster players. 

Like the Kings, a lack of toughness was a glaring issue in the Cavs’ first-round loss to the New York Knicks. They ran out of options to guard Jalen Brunson; Isaac Okoro did well but was a non threat on offense. The Cavs’ offense desperately needs someone who will keep shooting confidently even when struggling like Brooks.More importantly, they would become a hellacious defense with Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen behind Brooks.

The Last Word

Dillon Brooks faces a crossroads. At 27, this could be his last chance at a significant NBA contract. He has jeopardized his earning potential but will almost certainly have multiple suitors. If Brooks can reign in his shot selection and channel his physicality in more productive ways, he has another level to reach in his career.

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