To read the previous parts of this series, please see: The Origins, Television, Transfers, Fans and The Business
The world of football has changed dramatically in the last 25 years. More people than ever can watch their favourite team no matter what part of the world they, or their team, come from. The explosion of transfer fees and players’ wages has also reshaped the football landscape, with very little sign that they will reach a plateau any time soon, as teams spend more and more in search of glory. But what does the future hold; will football continue to expand or will the bubble burst?
The immediate future is looking good for the top clubs. Television revenues continue to increase, a new deal with BT Sports for Champions League and Europa League coverage will start in 2015 worth £897 million, and sponsorship revenues are also up for top clubs with Manchester United signing record deals with Chevrolet and Adidas, which will net them £100 million a year. However, all is not as blissful, as it seems a shadow does loom over the game. With increased revenues for competing in the top competitions, teams are more likely than ever to overspend in the chase to reach the promised land of the Champions League and Premier League. The Football League Championship Playoff Final has been labelled the richest game in football with the current winner guaranteed an estimated £120 million in television, prize money and parachute payments, even if they finish bottom of the league the year after they are promoted.
Clubs overspending is a problem that the authorities have recognised and are looking to solve with the implementation of Financial Fair Play. However, this does not seem to have curbed spending, as Premier League clubs spent a record estimated £835 million on players in the summer 2014 transfer window. The lavish outlays were not consigned to England, with Spanish teams spending an estimated £425 million with Barcelona and Real Madrid forking out £75 million and £63 million on Luis Suárez and James Rodríguez alone.
The business of football must adapt, however, as there is not an unlimited supply of money to go around, the bubble will eventually burst. The top money still only exists at the top of the game and, for English teams, there are only 20 places in the Premier League and four qualification spots for the Champions League. This means some teams must cut their cloth accordingly or risk ending up in financial peril like Leeds and Portsmouth before them. For football to really sit up and take notice it may take the liquidation of a big club still at the top of the sport, however, I hope those in charge follow the measures being put in place, like Financial Fair Play, and that can be avoided.
Fans will also be an ever evolving part of football; in the last 25 years, who watches football and where they watch it has changed. The reduction in hooliganism-related incidents has led to a far more family friendly atmosphere at grounds; however, chanting that would be unacceptable in any other walk of life is still passed off as banter. This is the next hurdle for the football authorities to take a harder stance on racist, homophobic and other obscene chanting. To stop fans interacting with each other and the players altogether would be a step too far, robbing the game of something that makes it one of the most popular in the world, but at the same time, what is not acceptable outside a football stadium must become unacceptable inside a stadium. The authorities’ current soft stance does not help, especially when a player is fined more for showing his underpants baring a sponsored logo (£80,000), than a national governing body is for racist chanting by their home fans (£65,000).
Where people watch football will continue to change as more and more games become available on television. Currently Ofcom are investigating the way the rights to football matches are sold with the current number of matches shown (154) potentially set to increase. Also, something potentially that could change is the 3pm kick-off embargo. Currently there is a television blackout in the UK for the 3pm games on a Saturday, but Ofcom plan to speak to supporters groups, many of whom are concerned about the number of games moved from its traditional slot to be televised. This could allow the 3pm games to be televised in an effort to keep more games on a Saturday afternoon.
The future is bright for football but perhaps not as bright as it once was. Television revenues will continue to rise at the top, but the gap to lower leagues will widen. More fans worldwide will be able to watch their favourite teams, but more will be priced out of going to see live games. The commercial side of football is now more important than ever, but is symbiotic with the playing sides both dependent upon each other.
Modern football has evolved over the last 25 years to the product that we see today, and will continue to do so. In 25 years, football will have no doubt moved on even further and will be very different from the game that today is watched by millions across the globe.
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