For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason that the gap between #25 and #26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between #24 and #25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP, Coaches’, and CFP rankings) or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of there being more than 25 Top 25 teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume. The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.
WIth losses this week, the Bubble Watch eliminated Auburn, Nebraska, and Duke. By my count, there are 13 teams remaining who can actually still hope to make the CFP.
Week 12 CFP Bubble Watch
In Right Now (i.e. controls own destiny):
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Florida State | 0-0 | 0-0 | 4-0 | 3-0 | 3-0 | 45-55 | 0 |
The Seminoles SOS range is not so pretty, but it’s not as bad as some would have you believe. After last week they have no Top 25 wins, though a few of those in the 26-40 range might slide up by the end of the year. This resume is not bad overall, especially considering that both remaining opponents are in the Top 50. They don’t want to risk losing a game, especially now that most of the meat is gone, but they are not definitely out if they do—as some would want you to believe.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Oregon | 1-0 | 2-1 | 1-0 | 3-0 | 2-0 | 15-25 | 0 |
Five games against Top 40 teams and only two against teams outside the Top 80 (though Colorado will be a third) makes this a strong resume. Also consider the fact that the Ducks had a ton of injuries in their loss, and it’s very clear that Oregon controls their own destiny. Win out and they are in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Alabama | 1-1 | 2-0 | 4-0 | 0-0 | 2-0 | 1-10 | 1 |
Eight of the Tide’s opponents are in the Top 40 right now, with another one (Auburn) still to come. And even though Western Carolina might drop those SOS numbers a bit, this is clearly the best resume in the country right now.
On the Bubble:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Mississippi State | 1-1 | 2-0 | 1-0 | 1-0 | 4-0 | 15-30 | 1 |
The Bulldogs have a decent resume but that 81+ number is ugly and one more will be added to it when they play Vanderbilt. They have one of the worst nonconference schedules in the country and that shows where they have some SOS numbers outside the Top 30 even though they play in the SEC West. There really is very little that separates this resume from TCU’s, Baylor’s, and Ohio State’s right now. The Bulldogs’ three biggest wins (LSU, Texas A&M, and Auburn) also didn’t do Mississippi State any favors by all losing this week.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| TCU | 0-1 | 3-0 | 1-0 | 2-0 | 3-0 | 25-65 | 0 |
TCU is not as safe as some want you to think. The committee gave them some early-season support, but the fact is that their resume is not much better than Baylor’s (right below) and they lost to Baylor head-to-head. The SOS number took a hit this week and will take another when they play Iowa State. Also, Minnesota dropped a game and probably has two more losses on the way. Add that all up and TCU is squarely on the bubble—and probably needs a Baylor loss to get in.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Baylor | 1-0 | 1-0 | 1-1 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 55-90 | 1 |
That 5-0 number against teams outside the Top 80 is ugly, but no uglier than what TCU will end up with. The SOS number is also ugly (though somehow Massey is a huge outlier with Baylor’s SOS at #31; I can’t explain that) but it again should be close to TCU’s by the end of the year. Both Big XII schools are squarely on the bubble because we can’t know which way the committee will judge them. Then again, maybe they’re on the bubble because they have to worry about Ohio State behind them.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Ohio State | 1-0 | 1-0 | 0-0 | 6-1 | 1-0 | 40-50 | 0 |
Ohio State has only one game against a Top 25 team, which cannot help the resume very much. And while they have only played one team outside the Top 80, Illinois is very close to being there, along with Indiana who still remains on the Buckeyes’ schedule. It’s not a completely false statement to say that Ohio State is relying on the eye test and some forgiveness for that loss (Virginia Tech may still end the year as a Top 40 team, which is not so awful), but the fact remains that their SOS is near the same ranges as Baylor, Florida State, and where TCU’s will end up. Getting a 10-2 Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship Game will also add a slight boost, though not as much as 11-1 Nebraska could have brought.
Still Alive:
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Mississippi | 1-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 2-0 | 1-10 | 1 |
What immediately sticks out is the great SOS number and the lack of games against teams outside the Top 80. Also, six games against the Top 40 is a lot, with potentially two more remaining. Is this resume enough to offset that extra loss when compared to Ohio State, TCU, or Baylor? Probably. Is it enough to offset that extra loss and not being a conference champion? Probably not, but we’ll find out.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| UCLA | 0-1 | 2-1 | 0-0 | 5-0 | 1-0 | 5-10 | 1 |
UCLA gets in here because of their four Top 25 games and their strong SOS. That schedule number won’t even drop with remaining games against Stanford and USC. It’s as good a 2-loss resume as you’ll see and they will definitely be in the discussion if they win out and beat Oregon in the Pac 12 Championship Game. Arizona State obliged them this week as well by losing a shocker to Oregon State.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Arizona State | 0-0 | 2-1 | 2-0 | 1-1 | 3-0 | 25-45 | 1 |
Why do I still have Arizona State on the board? For starters, that’s still a pretty strong resume, even with an ugly loss added. They’ll need help to get there, but if they can win the Pac 12 and beat Oregon in the championship game to end the season, they will still be right on the edge of that Top 4, depending on how the rest of the country breaks.
| Team | vs 1-10 | vs 11-25 | vs 26-40 | vs 41-80 | vs 81+ | SOS range | T25 remaining |
| Georgia | 1-0 | 2-0 | 2-1 | 1-1 | 2-0 | 10-25 | 1 |
This resume looks okay at first glance, but in reality it’s pretty thin. That Top 10 win is Auburn, whose great computer numbers will slide a bit when they play Samford this week. The Top 25 win is Missouri, who somehow has only lost to Georgia and Indiana yet keeps on winning SEC games. It’s not a bad resume, but not one worthy of the Top 10 ranking that the polls are giving Georgia. If you add wins against Georgia Tech and the SEC Championship Game, though, it looks a lot closer to the rest of those top teams.
Too Early to Eliminate:
Kansas State, Arizona
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