With Michael Cuddyer’s recent two-year deal with the Mets, it’s time to start looking ahead to next year. What does that mean for fantasy owners? It means taking a look at the first few names to come off the board. But first, lets talk strategy. Did you know that last year 22 major league pitchers recorded an ERA under 3.00? That’s the most since the strike shortened season of 1981. To find the last time at least 22 pitchers had an ERA under 3.00 in a full season, you’d have to go back all the way to 1972, when 44 pitchers did it. Gaylord Perry won the AL Cy Young award that year. You read that right. The last time we saw pitching this good, Gaylord Perry was in his prime. What does this mean for next year’s top picks? For me, it means taking hitters, no matter how good Clayton Kershaw is. And I know, he’s really really good, but there are just too many pitchers to consider taking one early. How does the rest of the draft shape up? Lets take a look at Fantasy Baseball’s top 20 rankings.
20. Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland Indians
Don’t ignore Michael Brantley! At 27, Brantley has been around long enough that we’ve seen what he can do, and for him that means we expect a regression next year. But be careful! We’ve seen this in Cleveland before! It was only a few years ago that a 29-year-old Indians player with a career 4.64 ERA went on to post a 22-3 record, win the Cy young, and never look back. Granted, Cliff Lee may be the exception to the rule, and Brantley isn’t a pitcher, but 2014’s most consistent player deserves some respect.
19. Buster Posey, C, San Francisco Giants
Buster won a championship in 2014, but he didn’t light up the fantasy world. While his 2014 production doesn’t necessarily merit a 2015 2nd round selection, the dearth of quality at the position will push him very far up the ladder.
18. Felix Hernandez, SP, Seattle Mariners
With players like Kluber, Cueto, Wainwright, Bumgarner, and Sale lurking in the third and fourth rounds it’s difficult to get excited about taking King Felix here in the second, but remember this: Since ’09 he has averaged 15 wins, 226 strikeouts, 2.73 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. That’s elite consistency.
17. Anthony Rendon, 2B/3B, Washington Nationals
A former first round selection in the 2011 amateur draft (taken ahead of Houston Astros outfielder George Springer), Rendon is young player with lots of talent at the top of a very good Washington lineup.
16. Edwin Encarnacion, 1B, Toronto Blue Jays
I’m not a huge fan of Encarncion in leagues that count hits, especially considering the depth at the position, but in standard leagues there have been very few players who have been better than Edwin the last three years.
15. Jose Altuve, 2B, Houston Astros
It’s logical to suggest a slight regression in batting average for Altuve, considering his .360 BABIP in 2015 was much higher than his previous highs and a .341 batting average is very high. Keep in mind, however, that Ichiro averaged those numbers for 10 years with the Mariners. Now, Altuve may not be Ichiro (who is?) but he’s 24 so it’s not unreasonable to assume the drop may not be enormous. He’s also the best bet in fantasy baseball for 30+ steals.
14. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs
In 2014 the Cubs weren’t very good, but all that may change in a hurry. With perhaps the most talented crop of youngsters in the majors, the Cubs could score a lot of runs in 2015. With a solid year under his belt, the ceiling for the 25-year-old Rizzo is very high.
13. Adrian Beltre, 3B, Texas Rangers
Since 2010, Beltre has averaged 29/96/.316. He won’t get you any stolen bases but the 35-year-old is a solid source of power and average. A bounce back year from Prince Fielder could help him in 2015.
12. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners
Those who feared a power outage from Cano after he signed with Seattle saw their fears realized when the talented second basemen posted only 14 dingers in 2014. Oddly, 9 of those long flies came at home. Cano’s 30-home run days may be behind him, but a bounce back to 20 is not unrealistic.
11. Troy Tulowitzki, SS, Colorado Rockies
It will be very interesting to see where Tulo ends up going in drafts considering his injury history, but there is no doubt that—when healthy—he’s one of the top players in fantasy baseball. On top of that, shortstop is thin at the top, making him even more valuable.
10. Clayton Kershaw, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers
All-World pitcher Clayton Kershaw hasn’t posted a 3.00+ ERA since his rookie year. For those keeping track at home, that’s pretty good. As a pitcher, however, there is less appeal to taking him so early. If you do, you’ll have yourself a fantastic player. There is no down side to his game.
9. Carlos Gomez, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
The 2014 version of Carlos Gomez was very similar to the 2013 version of Carlos Gomez. Power/speed guys are hot commodities in fantasy baseball, Gomez is no exception.
8. Jose Bautista, OF, Toronto Blue Jays
The 34-year-old Bautista has averaged 37 home runs since 2010 and has shown no signs of slowing down. He is unlikely to repeat his .286 batting average, but is a safe source of power.
7. Jose Abreu, 1B/DH, Chicago White Sox
In 2014, only six players hit 30 homers and drove in 100+ runs. Only two of those six also hit above .300. The 27-year-old Abreu is in his prime and can be counted on for power in 2015.
6. Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore Orioles
With a three year average of 31/95/.284, Adam is a solid contributor in every category. He won’t light up the world on the basebaths, and won’t get you too many walks, but considering his production in nearly every other category it’s safe to say Jones is a dominating all-star in his prime.
5. Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, Arizona Diamondbacks
First base is very deep in the power categories, with 16 first base eligible players hitting 25+ home runs in 2014. Considering only 27 players accomplished the feat, it’s safe to say that first base is a great source of power. Paul was not one of them. Before his injury, however, he was one of the best players in baseball. A healthy 2015 should see him join this elite group, as well as contribute positively to all other categories.
4. Giancarlo Stanton, OF, Miami Marlins
The favorite of many to win the NL MVP before his injury, Stanton is an elite baseball player with the raw power to repeat his 2014 numbers without breaking a sweat.
3. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates
With a three year average of .320/.405/.534, McCutchen is one of the most consistently dominant players in baseball. He produces in all categories and won’t hurt you in any.
2. Miguel Cabrera, 1B, Detroit Tigers
He’s the big bat for an offense that scored the second most runs in MLB last year, and finished the year scalding hot, hitting .380 in September. He may not have repeated his triple-crown numbers, but he’s as sure a thing as they come.
1. Mike Trout, OF, Anaheim Angels
Trout has slowed down on the basepaths since stealing 49 bases during his rookie year, but he is still the clear number one pick.
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ST. LOUIS, MO – JULY 20: Starter Clayton Kershaw #22 of the Los Angeles Dodgers pitches against the St. Louis Cardinals in the fourth inning at Busch Stadium on July 20, 2014 in St. Louis, Missouri. (Photo by Dilip Vishwanat/Getty Images)
