Last Sunday my wife and I got a baby sitter and headed out for an evening to ourselves. We stopped by a furniture store to look at a dining room table my wife has been waiting 11 years for. Then off to a sports bar for dinner, drinks, and to watch her Eagles. We chose are restaurant that we have had good times at before. I never would have thought it could have been such a bad experience.
The signs where there to warn us off, but my wife and I just did not read them right because of our past experiences. We entered the bar to find it mostly empty at 5 PM on a Sunday. Sports bars are not empty on football Sundays; wait good sports bars are not empty. (Sign) No one was there to seat us. (Sign) My wife said “Are they closed”. I said “I don’t think so, every TV is on”. Just then some runs out from the back to seat us. My wife asked to sit where we can see the Eagles game. The hostess says that they do not have the Sunday Ticket. (Sign) My wife told her it is on the Fox station, she is then able to sit us at our own personal 60 inch 3D TV for the game. (Sign) We sit down and they bring us the menu. The menu is on a standard size copy paper, and my wife’s menu is different than mine. (Sign) In the past it had been nicely designed large menus. Yes, we still did not leave. They have always had good food and service in the past?
We order drinks and an appetizer. The good old standard Buffalo chicken dip was our choice. The drinks came out and shortly thereafter an appetizer appeared. I take a nice scoop with one of the few whole tortilla chips in the pile. I take a nice taste of crab dip. (Sign) It tasted great, probably because I have not had crab for 20 years. I developed an allergy to it around my 20th birthday. Well now my wife is concerned about what reaction I may have to this. She starts planning on how to get to the hospital. Luckily, there was not much real crab in it and my reaction was minor.
They did cover my drinks, for the life-threatening mistake. We did leave shortly after eating the buffalo chicken dip they brought out to replace their error. There is one more story from the women’s bathroom that I cannot bring myself to write about. I will say it was the last straw for us. (Sign)
We will never go back to there again.
That leads me to this week’s fantasy picks. We should not overlook the signs that we are getting from players performances. We need to look at the signs and see if it is time to change our view, as we have on the restaurant.
There are three quarterbacks that have showed signs they elevated their play this season.
Eli Manning – I mentioned him last week; I said “he needed to show me more before I was buying in.” Okay, I am buying. He had an ADP of the 15th QB drafted and is currently 8th in PPG (point per game). That is with a 6 point stinker in week 1. The signs say he should be owned and is playable in all formats.
Matt Ryan – Ryan is proving that my belief in him was justified. He ADP was the 12th QB off the board and those owners have been rewarded with top 3 PPG. If an owner has him as a backup, offer him a trade, especially if you drafted Cam, Brady, or RG3 as your teams starting QB.
Phillip Rivers – Rivers continues to show that he has upside. Rivers was the 14th QB drafted per ADPs and has given you top 3 PPG also. He has enough weapons to keep up this pace. Follow the same advice as Matt Ryan.
There are three quarterbacks that showed signs of a drop in their play this season.
Tom Brady – It may not be his entire fault, but he has had a horrible season and I see no light at the end of the tunnel. He is aging and there is no talent around him other than Gronk. He is droppable in all leagues, unless you find someone that wants to buy low. I would trade him for a bye week fill in kicker at this point.
Cam Newton – He is not right. Injuries to a mobile QB seem to sap fantasy value. He was drafted 6th among QBs and is currently ranked 25th in PPG. The key sign here is that he is injured. If he can get healthy he may turn it around. Look for that owner who is panicking and offer them a trade. Great risk reward potential.
Drew Brees – Owners of Brees have not been happy with his 17 PPG after taking him as the 3rd QB off the board per ADP. Brees owners have to ignore the start and hope that he gets the Saints offense back on track. The signs are not clear enough to make a move, yet.
There were six running backs with signs that they are better than their ADP
Justin Forsett – ADP – UD, PPG rank T16 Forsett went undrafted in many leagues. The signs are murky in Baltimore. I believe in Forsett because he has been consistent each week. He is on pace for 1000 yards rushing. I know Peirce and Taliaferro are in the mix, however it seems that it is Forsett and either Pierce or Taliaferro. Forsett is only owed in 14% of leagues. He is worth a pickup in all leagues.
Knile Davis – ADP -54, PPG rank – 8 I know that Charles put up great numbers Monday night, however they still gave Davis the ball 17 total times. That seems to mean they are committed to keeping him involved. He is a must own if you have Charles. He is worth a pick up to trade to the Charles owner.
Darren Sproles – ADP – 34, PPG Rank T11 Sproles has taken the load off of LeSean McCoy, much to the chagrined of McCoy owners. (See below) Sproles has only carried the ball 18 times, yet has two scores. Do not fall for the trap of thinking Sproles is a RB1. He will be playable all season long; however I expect his fantasy numbers to drop off some. He is at his peak level to trade him away.
Chris Ivory – ADP – 39, PPG rank T11. Ivory has shown a hard hitting, grinding running style that is posting some nice fantasy points so far. I fear injury with his running style and then I remember Walter Payton running over guys. Ivory and Chris Johnson are splitting the load close to even. However, Ivory has been the better yards per play guy so far. In addition his work load has gone up while Johnson’s has gone done. Ivory is the man for the Jets.
Terrance West and Isaiah Crowell have done well while Ben Tate was out with an injury. Tate will be back in week five. This is a mess I do not want to be any part of. If Tate is healthy it is his job to lose. If not West and Crowell are at best flex guys.
There are four running backs that showed signs of a drop in their play this season.
LeSean McCoy – ADP 2, PPG rank 30. McCoy has seen most of the work and will continue to see most of the work. Sproles has been great but by season end McCoy will be top 10 RB and Sproles will not be. Now would be a good time to buy low on McCoy, before their line gets healthy. No worries here.
Arian Foster – ADP 7, PPG rank 21. After 55 carries in the first two weeks he has only had 8 for 6 yards and that was last week Foster has always had health concerns and this makes me more worried. If you own Foster go find Alfred Blue. He is an important handcuff and is only owned in 3.4% of ESPN leagues.
Jamaal Charles – ADP 4, PPG rank 27. He was back in a big way in week 4. I am not very concerned at this point, but I would go pick up Knile Davis if you can.
Eddy Lacy – ADP 6, PPG rank 44. I am concerned here as he has played all four games and has not amassed over 50 yard rushing in any of them. There is no single reason to say that this will fix itself. The signs here are clear to me and I would look to trade him as if he was only a RB2. Someone will be willing to make a trade in that range hoping for the upside of Lacy. Let the hope, you should move on.
There is a reason that very few wide receivers go in the first five rounds here is why. I am going to list most of the WR that have showed a difference in production as compared to their ADP. It is too many to cover each. This should help you see why not to over value wide receivers.
| WR | PPG rank | ADP |
| Steve Smith | 3 | 41 |
| Jeremy Maclin | 6 | 26 |
| Kelvin Benjamin | 7 | 46 |
| Eddie Royal | 8 | UD |
| Allen Hurns | 13 | UD |
| Mahammed Sanu | 18 | UD |
| Deven Hester | 19 | UD |
| Brian Quick | 20 | UD |
| James Jones | 21 | 55 |
| Damaryius Thomas | T38 | 2 |
| A.J. Green | 17 | 3 |
| Andre Johnson | 47 | 10 |
| Larry Fitzgerald | 82 | 12 |
| Vincent Jackson | 43 | 13 |
| Percy Harvin | T38 | 14 |
| Torrey Smith | 59 | 22 |
This sign should keep you from over drafting that second tier of wide receivers next year.
Signs, signs, everywhere there are signs.
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ATLANTA, GA – SEPTEMBER 07: Matt Ryan #2 of the Atlanta Falcons celebrates a touchdown in the second half against the New Orleans Saints at the Georgia Dome on September 7, 2014 in Atlanta, Georgia. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
