Blasphemous! Sacrilege! What do you mean, Todd Gurley won’t win the Heisman?!
These are all heat-of-the-moment reactions that Dawg fans might have after reading the above headline. But hold your horses, Georgia faithful, and hear me out.
It’s no secret that Todd Gurley is a beast. He is a dominant player who can take it to the house every time he touches the ball. I mean, let’s take a look at his stats for the year so far. Through three games, he has a total of 47 touches (41 carries, five receptions, one kick return), and he has scored on five of those touches. That means he scores approximately once every nine times he touches the ball. Gurley is averaging 9.8 yards per carry, raising his career average (which was 6.1 yards per carry before the season) to 7.3 yards per carry. In three games this year, Gurley has averaged slightly fewer than 16 touches per game. There is absolutely no question that Gurley is one of the best players in the country.
But here is why he’s not likely to win the Heisman – and also why that’s okay.
Let’s look at the stats from the last two running backs who won the Heisman – Mark Ingram (2009) and Reggie Bush (2005, later vacated). Mark Ingram, in his Heisman season, was Alabama’s workhorse. In 14 games, including the BCS National Championship, Ingram had a total of 303 touches (271 carries, 32 receptions) for a whopping 1,992 yards and 20 total touchdowns. Ingram averaged 6.6 yards per touch, and scored approximately once every 15 times he touched the ball. He averaged nearly 22 touches per game.
Reggie Bush, in his since-vacated Heisman season, had a ridiculous season at Southern Cal. In 13 games, including the close loss to Vince Young and Texas in the BCS National Championship, Bush had a total of 283 touches (200 carries, 37 receptions, 28 kick returns, 18 punt returns) for a total of 2,890 all-purpose yards. Yes, you’re reading that right – Bush had about 1.64 MILES of total yardage in 13 games. Bush averaged 10.2 yards per touch, and scored approximately once every 15 times he touched the ball. He also averaged nearly 22 touches per game.
Currently– and yes, I know that Gurley was used sparingly against Troy (and for good reason)– Todd Gurley is on pace to have just 235 total touches in 15 games in 2014, assuming that Georgia makes it to the SEC Championship and wins the College Football Playoff.
Let’s also take a look at the history of the Heisman trophy. Since 2000, just two out of the 14 Heisman Trophy winners have been running backs. The other 12? All quarterbacks. It’s a quarterback’s world in college football. If Trent Richardson didn’t win it in 2011 with 2,083 total all-purpose yards and 24 touchdowns on 315 total touches (one touchdown every 13 touches), it’s unlikely that Todd Gurley will this year. With quarterbacks like Oregon’s Marcus Mariota and Texas A&M’s Kenny Hill lighting up the scoreboard each week, it’ll be extremely difficult for Todd Gurley to get enough touches and yards to make a run at doing the Heisman pose on-stage in New York City.
Now to the part about why it’s all going to be okay. The Georgia Bulldogs need a healthy and explosive Todd Gurley– especially late in closely-contested SEC battles– to have any chance at achieving their goal of winning a National Championship. That means, inherently, that it is important to keep Todd Gurley fresh during the course of a game. If Georgia were to run Gurley out there on every play, giving him 25-30 touches per game, defenses would eventually find a way to stop him. But when Georgia uses its four-headed monster in the backfield – a mix of Todd Gurley, Keith Marshall, Sony Michel and Nick Chubb – opposing defenses have to prepare and defend against a variety of running styles, which keeps them honest. No, I am not saying that Gurley shouldn’t be used on every down because he can’t carry the team on his shoulders. He has proven that he can (see the win against Georgia Tech last year). In fact, I am saying the opposite – he shouldn’t be used on every down because it is best for him AND the team.
Go back to the Clemson game if you don’t believe me. The fans were getting extremely restless after the first half when Gurley only saw four carries (though he did have a 100-yard kick return for a touchdown). But did you see what he did after halftime when he was fresh and the Clemson defense was a bit tired? He took his 11 second-half carries and turned them into two touchdowns (of 18 and 51 yards, respectively), finishing the day with an outrageous stat line – 15 carries, 198 yards, three touchdowns (four total).
Think about the future of the Dawgs, as well. It’s likely that Todd Gurley will go pro after this year. I mean, he’s going to be an absolute stud in the NFL. The in-game experience Georgia’s young running backs – namely Sony Michel and Nick Chubb – are getting this year will pay dividends next year and beyond. Michel and Chubb represent a very bright future for the Bulldogs, and the more they can get on the field and perform as freshman, the better they’ll get.
Do I want Todd Gurley to be the first Heisman winner from UGA since Herschel Walker? Absolutely! But regardless of his current 10-1 odds – behind Marcus Mariota at 2-1 – to win the Heisman Trophy, it’s likely not in the cards for the beast from the SEC East. And you know what, Dawg fans? That is okay!
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