Welcome to Puck Drop Preview 2014-15, where our hockey department gives you a detailed look at each team from around the NHL leading to the start of this hockey season and offers our insight and analysis. Makes sure to stick around until the end of the series, where we’ll offer our full predictions for the standings in each division, and eventually our collective LWOS 
2014-15 Stanley Cup pick. You can check out all our articles on our Puck Drop Page. Today we continue our way through the Pacific division with a look at the Los Angeles Kings.
Last Season:
The Kings began last season with a modest expectation: be a 100-point regular season team, as Darryl Sutter reiterated throughout the year and afterwards. Though they had won the franchise’s first Stanley Cup in 2011-12 and followed it up with a return trip to the Western Conference Final in 12-13, the Kings had only been a 100 point team three times since coming into the league in 1967 (the last time being a 101 point season in 2009-10). Their Stanley Cup had come at the end of an up-and-down regular season when they finished with 95 points and the 8th seed in the Western Conference, beginning the tale of the Kings as a team that doesn’t try hard until the playoffs start.
Like most narratives though, that’s not really true. The Kings have been an elite team in the regular season for the past three years when it comes to puck possession metrics. They’ve built their system around stifling defensive play, driven by two-way monsters like Anze Kopitar and Justin Williams.
From the start of the 2011-12 season through the end of the last year, including playoffs, only the Devils allowed fewer shots-on-goal by the opposition (per 60 minutes of 5v5 ice time). The Kings also had 53.95% of all 5v5 shots over the same time span, second again only to Chicago (54.22%). Outshooting your opposition night-after-night is a great way to have success, so why haven’t the Kings’ regular season results necessarily reflected their elite level of play?
The short answer is luck, those damn fluctuating percentages. In 2011-12 the Kings had a shooting percentage of just 6.03% at even strength, which was the worst in the league. Even making the playoffs at all with a shooting percentage that low was an accomplishment, and then once the percentages regressed for them in the playoffs (and Jonathan Quick continued his career-best goaltending run that helped carry them in the regular season) the Kings were an unstoppable juggernaut.
In 2012-13, the Kings shooting percentage went up to 7.59%, still a bit below the league average but much closer than the previous year, but the goaltending let them down. Quick had a horrendous year, finishing with just a .901 sv%. The playoffs saw a reversal of both fortunes: Quick bounced back and had a great playoff, but the Kings shooting luck went down again and ultimately the team bowed out in five games to the Blackhawks in the Western Conference Final.
So how did things go in 2013-14? The shooting percentage was bad for them again, as their 6.51% was second-worst in the league. But balancing that out was great goaltending, as the Kings got a .935 sv% at even strength from all three of their goalies, second-best in the NHL behind only Boston.
Quick missed significant time last year due to an injury suffered on November 12th in Buffalo, but backup Ben Scrivens (.931 sv% in 19 games with the Kings) and AHL call-up Martin Jones (.934 sv% in 19 games) both filled in admirably for him. The Kings were dominant once again as a team from a shots against standpoint, allowing the 2nd fewest behind New Jersey at 5v5, and combined with their stellar goaltending it resulted in the Kings allowing the fewest goals in the league last year, giving Quick his first Jennings Trophy.
That isn’t to say they didn’t still have their regular season struggles, thanks to the difficulty they sometimes had putting the puck in the net. In their final 11 games before the Olympic break, the Kings went just 2-8-1, picking up only 5 of the possible 22 points. But things started going much better for them after the Olympic break was over, as the Kings won their next seven straight games. After a brief three-game losing streak the Kings went right back into the win column with six straight victories. Overall, the Kings’ post-Olympic break record was an impressive 15-6-2, as they seemed to be getting hot at just the right time once again.
A huge catalyst for that was the acquisition of Marian Gaborik, who was an almost perfect parallel of the Jeff Carter acquisition at the 2011-12 trade deadline. Both came over in trades with Columbus where the Kings almost comically ripped off the poor Blue Jackets, both provided a strong history of scoring and driving on-ice shooting percentage (which, as we’ve covered extensively, is an area the Kings have always needed help with), and both provided a spark that lead the team to regular season success almost immediately. Gaborik slotted right onto Kopitar’s wing, instantly becoming the best scoring winger Kopi’s played with in his entire NHL career, and the two developed great chemistry right from the start.
Thanks to their late-season success, the Kings reached their modest goal, finishing with exactly 100 points. However, since they play in the loaded Pacific Division, that was only enough to get them the 3rd seed in the new divisional playoff setup, and a 1st round matchup with the San Jose Sharks.
The Sharks had finished 11 points better than the Kings and were out for revenge after LA had ended their postseason in 2012-13 in an incredibly close, seven-game second round series. They came out flying in the first two games at home, outscoring LA by a stunning combined total of 13-5.
The Kings corrected some baffling early lineup mistakes and put forth a much better effort in Game 3 at Staples Center, with the contest eventually going to overtime. The overtime period was dominated by the Kings, but after an icing the Sharks scored a fluky, bouncing game winner on what was their first shot attempt of the period (nevermind shot on goal).
Staring down a 0-3 series hole that would have been almost impossible to predict before the playoffs had started, it would have been easy for the Kings to pack it up and say this just wasn’t their year. After all, they had plenty of playoff success in the previous two years to fall back on, and with so many of their core performers still in their prime, they easily could have said “we’ll get ‘em next year”.
Instead, the Kings reeled off four straight victories, outscoring the Sharks 18-5 in the process, and made history as just the fourth team to come back from an 0-3 deficit in a playoff series. With an emphatic statement, the Kings had once again vanquished their northern California foes, sending their rivals into an early offseason filled with angst and curious decisions from their management.
In the second round, the Kings faced the other California team, the Anaheim Ducks. The Ducks had come onto LA’s SoCal turf all the way back in the 1993-94 season, but this was the first playoff meeting between the two clubs. The long-anticipated series didn’t disappoint, ultimately going the seven game distance.
The Kings had started the series off by winning both games at the Ponda, first in dramatic fashion in Game 1 when Gaborik tied the game with just seconds remaining in regulation and then scored the overtime game winner. The Kings followed that up with a 3-1 victory in Game 2, but the Ducks responded by reeling off three straight wins of their own, once again pushing the Kings to the brink of elimination. At home for Game 6, the Kings managed to squeak out a close 4-3 victory to tie the series and send it back to Anaheim. But after all that drama, Game 7 ended up being a laugher, as the Kings scored early and often on their way to an easy 6-2 victory.
That victory brought the Kings to their third straight Western Conference Final, a return meeting with the defending Stanley Cup Champion Chicago Blackhawks. Once again, the Kings found themselves staring straight down the long barrel of history, as no team who had played the maximum fourteen games in the first two rounds had ever advanced past the conference finals.
After losing Game 1 in Chicago by a 3-1 score, the Kings fell behind 2-0 to the Blackhawks early in Game 2 and looked like their backs were against the wall. All the Kings did in response was score six straight goals, including five in the third period, to even up the series at a game a piece. Back in Los Angeles, the Kings would take Games 3 & 4 as well, and suddenly found themselves with a 3-1 series lead.
But in response to this the Blackhawks showed their own heart of a champion. They won Game 5 at home in double overtime, with the game winning goal coming from ex-King Michael Handzus, of all people. In Game 6 the Blackhawks overcame a 3-2 deficit in the 3rd period, as Patrick Kane took over the game and then scored the game winner to send the series back to Chicago for a decisive Game 7.
In one of the craziest games in recent memory, the Blackhawks again jumped out to a 2-0 lead early on, only to watch the Kings tie it up yet again in the 1st period. The Hawks then took the lead back just 12 seconds later on a strange, bouncing goal by Patrick Sharp. The Kings would tie it again in the 2nd, watch the Blackhawks take yet another one-goal lead, and then tie it again on a Gaborik goal late in the 3rd period.
With the score tied 4-4, the Kings and Blackhawks went into overtime, and a relatively harmless-looking shot from Alec Martinez at the point would get deflected by Hawks defenseman Nick Leddy on the way through. The puck went right past Corey Crawford, and with that goal the Kings had paid the Blackhawks back, ending their own quest to repeat as Stanley Cup Champions.
Following that amazing Western Conference Final- called one of the best series ever by many a hockey fan- the Stanley Cup Final matchup with the New York Rangers looked like almost a formality for the Kings. But the Rangers, to their credit, put up a hell of a fight.
The Kings finally had home ice advantage for the first time in the playoffs, but it was the Rangers who looked at home early in both games at Staples. They jumped out to two-goal leads in Games 1 & 2, only to watch the Kings come back and tie them both before winning in overtime. The Kings were up 2-0 in the series despite never holding a lead in either game!
The series then shifted to Manhattan, where the Kings were roundly outplayed by the Rangers in Game 3. But Quick, who had a far more shaky and inconsistent postseason than his previous two, came up big for the Kings in his first appearance at Madison Square Garden since he had played there during an intermission as a child. Quick posted a shutout and the Kings found a way to win despite being outshot 32-15 (the only game in the series they would be outshot in), giving them a commanding 3-0 lead.
Henrik Lundqvist answered back with his own strong performance in Game 4, stopping an amazing 50 of the Kings’ 51 shots, and the Rangers were able to avoid the embarrassment of being swept out of the Stanley Cup Final. Back in Los Angeles, Game 5 would go to overtime yet again after Gaborik scored yet another game-tying goal in the 3rd period.
Following a scoreless first overtime that saw multiple shots hit the post and breakaways that were turned aside, the Rangers had a glorious chance to take the game back to Manhattan during the second overtime. Rick Nash got the puck while staring at a wide-open side of the net and virtually no chance for Quick to make it over in time. But at the last possible second, Kings defenseman Slava Voynov managed to reach his stick out and deflect Nash’s shot away.
Soon after, the Kings would come up the ice with numbers. Martinez had started the breakout, and he would find himself all alone on the far side of the net just as youngster Tyler Toffoli fired a perfect shot-pass off of Lundqvist’s pad. Martinez put away what was essentially a tap-in to finally end an incredible Stanley Cup run for the Los Angeles Kings, who won their second championship in three years.
There were any number of deserving candidates on the Kings for the Conn Smythe Trophy as playoff MVP: Gaborik’s 14 playoff goals were the most by any King since Wayne Gretzky had scored 15 during the Kings’ run to the Cup Final that year, Kopitar scored 26 points in 26 games, and Carter nearly matched him with 25 points (and 10 goals) on the Kings’ dynamite 2nd line that largely won them the series against the Blackhawks. But ultimately the voters gave the award to Justin “Mr. Game 7” Williams, who had 25 points of his own and once again came through when the team needed him the most. There wasn’t a wrong answer there, showing just how much depth the Kings had (one certainly could have made a case for Drew Doughty’s 18 points as a defenseman too).
So that was the Los Angeles Kings in 2013-14. I’d say they had a fairly memorable year, wouldn’t you?
2014-15 Los Angeles Kings
Offseason Changes:
Part of the reason why I went on so long about their 2013-14 is that there really isn’t much to say about Los Angeles’ offseason. Just like he did after LA’s 2012 Stanley Cup, GM Dean Lombardi made almost no changes to the team.
The only player the Kings really lost from their actual roster was the steady-but-aging defensive defenseman Willie Mitchell. While Mitchell played well for the Kings last year, he’s also 37 years old and has a substantial injury history (most recently missing all of the 12-13 season & playoffs), meaning the Kings were never going to be able or willing to come close to matching what he ultimately got from Florida (2 years, $8.5 million).
But the Kings did retain all of their other free agents. Most notably, trade deadline acquisition and playoff goal-scoring dynamo Gaborik was re-signed to a seven-year contract extension. The length of the contract was a bit shocking, especially given the fact that Gaborik is already 32 years old. However, the Kings got him at a cap hit of just $4.875 million, well below his previous cap hit numbers ($6.333 with the Wild and $7.5 with the Rangers), and getting him at such a low figure should provide great value for the team while they’re still in the midst of their Stanley Cup contention window.
Defenseman Matt Greene, who didn’t play a ton in the regular season but was a steadying force throughout the playoffs, also took a very team-friendly cap hit of $2.5 million to resign for the next four years. Greene is also 32 years old but was still effective in a limited third-pairing role when he played last year, and is almost certainly a better bet than Mitchell at this point given their respective ages and (especially) cap hits.
The Kings also brought back 3rd-line winger Dwight King (3 years at $1.95 million per season) and depth defenseman Jeff Schultz (2 years, $850,000 per season). Brayden McNabb, a promising young defenseman the Kings had acquired from the Buffalo Sabres at the trade deadline (who played 12 games in the NHL with Buffalo but didn’t get into the Kings’ lineup last year), also needed a new contract, and he signed a very team-friendly 2-year deal worth just $650,000 per season. We’ll talk more about McNabb a little later.
As far as acquisitions outside the organization go, the Kings did very little. Their only signings of note were both 4th liners from other teams who hadn’t even played regular roles with their respective clubs: Adam Cracknell from the Blues (1 year, $600,000) and David Van der Gulik from the Avalanche (1 year, $550,000).
The only trade the Kings were involved in all offseason saw them move a young forward with some potential, Linden Vey, to the Vancouver Canucks in exchange for a 2nd-round draft pick. Vey had played in 18 games with the Kings last year (recording no goals and five assists), but unlike his fellow midseason Manchester call-ups Tanner Pearson and Toffoli, was never able to find a regular role with the big club. Vey requested the trade, looking for an opportunity to earn more ice time elsewhere, and the Kings obliged him. And that was about it in a quiet offseason for the defending champions.
Projected Lineup:
Marian Gaborik – Anze Kopitar – Dustin Brown
Tanner Pearson – Jeff Carter – Tyler Toffoli
Dwight King – Mike Richards – Justin Williams
Kyle Clifford – Jarret Stoll – Trevor Lewis
Jake Muzzin – Drew Doughty
Robyn Regehr – Slava Voynov
Alec Martinez – Matt Greene
Jonathan Quick
Martin Jones
Other Players in the Mix:
-D Brayden McNabb
-F Adam Cracknell
-F Jordan Nolan
-F David Van der Gulik
-D Derek Forbort
Lineup Breakdown:
There isn’t a single player in the Kings’ projected lineup that didn’t play for the team last season, showing the continuity that Lombardi is looking to bring to his defending championship team once again. These lines are based on the groupings and line rushes used by the Kings so far in training camp, and it looks like for the most part they’ll be going with the same lines they used at the end of last year’s playoffs.
The only change is swapping Mike Richards and Jarret Stoll. Despite the overall team success since he was acquired during the 2011 offseason, Richards himself has been very underwhelming in Los Angeles, putting up mediocre possession numbers and generally struggling to replicate the success he had in Philadelphia.
He was demoted all the way down to 4th line center for much of last season and nearly the entire playoff run, but a 4th line center making $5-million plus is clearly not ideal. Giving Richards a shot to play in Stoll’s spot of 3C seems like a decent compromise. He’ll get more minutes, play next to Corsi dynamo Williams, and will probably be able to score more in that position.
Richards has come into camp declaring himself to be in “the best shape of his life”; if his renewed commitment to offseason training results in a better season, he has the potential to be one of the best third-line centers in the entire league.
Stoll has remained an effective play-driver and faceoff wizard (he was 14th in the league last year with a 54.7% faceoff winning percentage) even as his point production has declined. Having Kopitar/Carter/Richards/Stoll as your four centers is extremely impressive depth at the most important forward position.
There was some fear that the Kings would try to shoehorn Richards back onto the 2nd line, breaking up the Pearson-Carter-Toffoli line that was so effective during the playoffs, but so far it seems like the team is going to keep that line together. Pearson and Toffoli will bring great value to the Kings this year, as they’re both on the last seasons of their entry-level deals.
They had more limited roles and didn’t get into every game during the regular season last year, but they spent the vast majority of their ice time on the 2nd line with Carter during the playoffs and produced accordingly. Toffoli had 14 points in 26 games (0.54 PPG) and Pearson had 12 points in 24 games (exactly 0.5 PPG). If both can equal or slightly improve on that production over the course of an 82-game season spent on Carter’s wings, the Kings will almost certainly improve on their anemic goal total from last year’s regular season.
Speaking of Carter, he’s almost certainly a better fit at center than he is at wing; despite what you may have heard, he’s certainly defensively responsible enough to play there, and his shots-on-goal totals throughout his career have always been stronger when he’s played center than wing. Keeping him there all season long could result in Carter improving on his already-impressive 27-goals and 50 points in 72 games from last year.
How much can Marian Gaborik produce in a full season flanking Kopitar? And can Kopitar get back to a near point-per-game pace for the first time since he had 81 points in 82 games in 2009-10? While it’s unlikely Gaborik will continue shooting at his playoff rate of nearly 20%, the two have undeniable chemistry together (check out this amazing goal via Twitter user @myregularface from the Kings’ first preseason game against the Coyotes) and should be able to provide the Kings with more offense than they’ve gotten from their top line in years.
On defense, the top pairing looks set with Doughty and Jake Muzzin providing elite-level play in all three zones, and the third pairing of playoff hero Martinez & steady veteran Greene is one of the strongest in the league. The second pairing of Slava Voynov and Robyn Regehr is the big question mark here.
Voynov is coming off a very inconsistent season last year, but he’s still only 24 years old and has time to get back to his play from earlier seasons. Regehr, on the other hand, is a slow 34-year-old coming off injury issues that saw him miss most of last year’s playoffs. Even before his injury problems, Regehr has been a bit of an anchor on the Kings’ historically great puck possession numbers.
The hope of many Kings fans is that McNabb can eventually supplant Regehr on the second pairing. McNabb is a big 23-year-old kid at 6’5 and 200 pounds and has shown a knack for producing points at the AHL level (though he did go pointless in his 12 games with the Sabres last season). If he can take Regehr’s spot on the second pairing and push Robyn into the press box, the Kings could end up with easily the best blue line in the league. As it is now, they do have a bit of a vulnerability here.
On the Rise:
- Tyler Toffoli
- Jake Muzzin
- Tanner Pearson
On the Decline:
- Robyn Regehr
- Mike Richards
- Jarret Stoll
Season Expectations:
The Kings are a very difficult team to predict, at least as far as the regular season goes. In theory, there’s really no reason why they shouldn’t win the Pacific Division easily. The Ducks took a mild step forward with their acquisition of Ryan Kesler, but they are still woefully outclassed by the Kings on the blue line. The Sharks are a good team that made some baffling offseason decisions that crippled their forward depth. Overall, the Kings are probably the class of this division.
However, given the fact that I’ve yet to see the Kings put it all together in the regular season- i.e. get even average shooting luck and around league average goaltending in the same year- I’m loathe to pick them to win the division. Something always seems to go at least a little bit wrong for them during the regular season, and they never seem to have the truly elite-level year you’re expecting out of them. The dreaded “Stanley Cup hangover” is always a factor worth considering as well (though in recent years it’s seemed to hit the runners-up much harder than the champions).
Still, the Kings are a better team starting the 2014-15 regular season than they were at the start of 13-14. Pearson and Toffoli will both be in regular spots from the start of the year, and Gaborik will skate next to Kopitar right from the beginning as well.
This is the deepest group of forwards the Kings have started a season with in perhaps their entire history, which should be scary for the rest of the Western Conference and their blue line, despite a few small question marks, still remains impressively strong. You could make a great case for the Doughty-Muzzin pairing as the best defensive pairing in the league, driving puck possession almost effortlessly.
As such, it feels like an improvement on last year’s 100-point, 3rd place finish is in order, so let’s go with 2nd in the Pacific for the Kings next season. Again, if things break their way when it comes to the percentages, they could easily win this division in a laugher. But the Kings being in the race for that elusive division crown until the end before ultimately finishing 2nd seems like a safer bet for this team. And yet again, I would hate to be the Ducks, Sharks, or whoever else sneaks into 3rd and has to take on this club in the 1st round of the playoffs.
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