In sports as well as in life, there are so many clichéd one-liners that attempt to elucidate on success in both spheres that it becomes difficult to separate the helpful ones from those that are mere hogwash. Among my favorites is the oft-repeated quote, “It’s not how you start, it’s how you finish.” Whether it’s an individual game or the vast expanse of an entire season, no one cares if you came out of the blocks sizzling or sluggish, what matters is where you are when the referee blows the final whistle or when the last regular season game is played.
For the 19 teams of Major League Soccer, much like those in the other major North American sports, the ancillary goal is finishing in a spot which gets them into the playoffs and provides the opportunity to reach the ultimate goal of standing at the top of the proverbial mountain as league champions. Parity has been a significant focus from the beginning in the sense that the league wants the final march towards the playoffs to be as full of contenders as possible. Make no mistake, we’re getting exactly such a finish which should make for a scintillating conclusion to the regular season.
MLS Cup: No Room For Error In Eastern Conference Playoff Race
There’s no exaggeration that the home stretch of the 2014 campaign has the potential to go down to the wire in the Eastern Conference. With over 75 percent of the regular season completed, one could make the argument that nine of ten teams are either stone-cold playoff locks or could position themselves favorably with a late-season surge. Each side in the thick of things have their own strengths and weaknesses that could play a part in making or breaking their postseason chances.
Heading towards these mid-September slate of matches that commence Friday night, it would behoove us to give an assessment of where each team stands in the East as their 34-game regular season schedule draws to a close over the course of the next month and a half. We’ll start from the top points-wise and work our way down. As part of a final analysis, a one sentence best-case and worst-case scenario for the concluding quarter of the season will be presented.
D.C. United (47 points, six games remaining)
Consistency has been key for United, although a four-game win streak in July, coupled with a 3-0 road win at Sporting Kansas City on August 23, helped solidify their status as Eastern Conference leader going into their road tilt with current playoff outsiders Chicago. DC has perhaps the league’s best young goalkeeper in Bill Hamid and when star forward Fabian Espindola puts the ball in the net, this team’s hard to beat. The return of midfielder Chris Pontius for the first time in 2014 after offseason hamstring surgery should be major shot in the arm both on the field and from a positive vibes perspective.
Best-case: The postseason is a virtual certainty for DC, so the key going forward is to maintain the conference lead as the franchise looks to break the tie with Los Angeles for most MLS Cups in league history.
Worst-case: Anything worse than a two seed would be a downer from a momentum standpoint, as it would preclude the possibility of home-field advantage to start the playoffs which is something that should be a clear and present goal at the very least.
Sporting Kansas City (45 points, five games remaining)
Apparently the cure of one’s ails in MLS is to play Chivas USA, as Sporting KC erased a four-game skid with a 4-0 rout of the beleaguered team from Los Angeles last Friday. Their stingy defense was a key factor in an 11-5-5 start to the season, where they were conceding an impressive 0.90 goals per game. Since then, that total has ballooned to 1.88 and they’ve gone 2-5-1 during that span. The back line, led by team captain Matt Besler, has some extra time to rectify their issues since they have a bye this weekend.
Best-case: This team had all the makings of a lock for the MLS Cup Final not too long ago, and if they can revert to the dominant form they had over the summer they can reestablish themselves as the best team in the conference and guarantee the possibility of a home championship game for the second year in a row should Los Angeles or Seattle falter in the West playoffs.
Worst-case: Though it’s hard to contemplate this team actually missing the playoffs, a continuation of the poor play that has struck this side before the Chivas victory might see them in an unfavorable three or even four seed come playoff time.
New England Revolution (42 points, six games remaining)
The Revs’ 2014 season might go down as perhaps one of the most bipolar in league history. Starting the season 2-3-2, they proceeded to win five in a row, followed by a historic eight game losing streak as part of a 1-9-1 stretch. However, they’re riding high right now, buoyed by the “blind draw” acquisition of Jermaine Jones and the prolific play of Lee Nguyen and Charlie Davies, going undefeated in their last six including another five game winning streak.
Best-case: Trailing DC by only five points, it’s certainly possible that the Revs could make a run at the top overall seed in the playoffs if their winning ways continue.
Worst-case: New England’s season has oscillated between long stretches of winning and losing and if their current blazing run of form flares out, they might get in by the skin of their teeth even though I see them as a playoff team either way.
New York Red Bulls (38 points, six games remaining)
Bradley Wright-Phillips was expected to put the ball in the back of the net with regularity, but his league-leading and current franchise record 21 goals has to come as a welcome surprise for Red Bull supporters. He’s relied heavily on impeccable services from Thierry Henry, who has 12 assists on the year in addition to nine goals. Tim Cahill’s offensive contribution to the team has fallen off from 2013, and if you want to find out why, check out Joseph Goldstein’s concise piece on the topic. The schedule is about as favorable as you could possibly get, with four out of their final six at Red Bull Arena.
Best-case: The Red Bulls are only a year removed from the Supporters’ Shield Trophy and still has the talent to make a run at an MLS Cup appearance even though they will most likely have to do it on the road unless they get help.
Worst-case: Similar to Toronto, this is a club with multiple big money players on the roster, and sitting out the playoffs would be a massive setback that could imperil head coach Mike Petke’s tenure with the team.
Columbus Crew (37 points, six games remaining)
The Black and Gold brought in Austrian defender Emanuel Pogatetz to fill the recently departed Giancarlo Gonzalez’s spot on the back line. He will be available for Columbus’ massive home showdown with in-form New England Saturday night although he’ll probably come on in the second half. The Crew showed a ton of heart last Saturday in salvaging a 2-2 road draw at Houston after trailing by two at halftime. The rest of September will be spent at home, but after that a massively challenging three-game road stand awaits with the playoff-hungry Revs, Union and Red Bulls on the docket.
Best-case: If Columbus can hold serve at Crew Stadium and steal some points on the road in October, there remains the possibility of getting out of the opening round game and starting the playoffs as a three seed.
Worst-case: Though not much was expected from Columbus in 2014 with new ownership and head coach Gregg Berhalter in his first year, the fact that they’re in contention at this point will make anything but playoff qualification a disappointment.
Philadelphia Union (37 points, six games remaining)
It’s hard to believe the Union are currently in contention considering they went 4-7-6 during the first half of the season which included a nine-match winless spell. Since then, they’re 5-2-4 and have been aided in part by an offensive resurgence from Sebastian Le Toux and Conor Casey, along with stellar play from Andrew Wenger who has scored four of his five goals on the year during that stretch. Similar to New York, Philly’s remaining schedule is very homey, with four of six at PPL Park to close out the season.
Best-case: If either the Crew or the Red Bulls stumble down the stretch, the door is open to move up in the standings and maybe even finish fourth which would enable them to host the opening round match.
Worst-case: Philly’s goal differential could come back to haunt them if they’re still tied on points with the Crew when the two teams meet in Columbus for the season finale.
Toronto FC (34 points, seven games remaining)
A season that started with title aspirations amid high-profile designated player signings Michael Bradley and Jermain Defoe has quickly turned into a death spiral. The club is currently in the midst of a six-game winless streak that prompted the front office to embark on a massive house-cleaning spree at the end of August which led to the firing of coach Ryan Nelsen and his entire staff. Greg Vanney has been brought in to attempt to salvage what’s quickly turned into a lost campaign. Defoe, currently the highest paid player in the league, it reportedly unhappy and could possibly be out when the season’s over. In short, this is a club in turmoil.
Best-case: It’s hard to draw up something positive given what’s transpired over the past few weeks, but let’s be honest, they’re only three points out of a playoff spot with a game in hand on both Columbus and Philly so they got that going for them.
Worst-case: They’re living the worst-case scenario right now when you consider how much money this team has spent on players and the fact that they’re trending in the wrong direction at the most crucial point in the season.
Houston Dynamo (32 points, seven games remaining)
For a while, it looked like Houston and Montreal were resigned to being roommates in the conference basement, especially after the Dynamo went 0-6-2 between May 21 and July 19 and led the Impact by a mere five points in the standings. However, the July 23 allocation acquisition of DaMarcus Beasley breathed a bit of life into the club and all of a sudden they’re only five points in arrears of a playoff spot as they prepare for a road test with Philadelphia on Saturday.
Best-case: Houston will have to make the most of the game in hand they have with their conference counterparts and also hope for a late-season swoon from at least two of teams in front of them to sneak in as a five seed.
Worst-case: The way they coughed up a two goal halftime lead at home in a mere eight minutes against Columbus last weekend has to be an alarming development which could wreck whatever slim chances they had with teams like DC United and New England coming to town next month.
Chicago Fire (30 points, seven games remaining)
It’s clearly an uphill climb for Chicago both from their current standing in the conference along with their remaining schedule. They have a chance for a home upset on Saturday when DC United comes to Toyota Park in Bridgeview, but they also have to return to RFK in October along with having to play Sporting KC on the road. The Fire have a phenomenal goalkeeper in Sean Johnson who should get a look from the US men’s national team in the future. They also possess one of the league’s best young forwards in Harry Shipp, who played on Notre Dame’s national championship winning team in 2013 and has been rumored to be a target of some clubs in Europe.
Best-case: The Fire have plenty of games in hand to get points, but this scenario will require wins as opposed to the league leading fifteen draws they’ve managed to play to so far in addition to a virtual collapse from the teams in front of them.
Worst-case: Conference bottom-dwellers Montreal have been much improved of late as the newly acquired Ignacio Piatti has reenergized the side, so the last thing Chicago wants is a situation where the Impact overtake them in the standings at season’s end despite the fact they’re currently nine points in arrears.
With respect to actually predicting the final order of finish, I’m not exactly going out on a limb. I anticipate the five teams currently in the playoff spots getting in even though there will be some moves from where they currently stand.
John Bava’s Predicted Final Eastern Conference Standings
1. DC United (61 pts)
2. New England Revolution (55 pts)
3. Sporting Kansas City (54 pts)
4. Columbus Crew (50 pts)
5. New York Red Bulls (49 pts)
Let me know what you think. Feel free to hit me up on Twitter if you want to discuss the playoff race further.
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