So you need an upgrade at the First Base position. Maybe you had someone such as Chris Davis that you hoped would finish strongly, and you need a replacement.
Below are a few players that are eligible at 1B and widely available (owned in less than 50% of leagues). The players listed below are ranked from least likely to most likely to help your fantasy team.
Owned in 5% of leagues and also (primarily) eligible at C. While Grandal has struggled most of this season, he has rebounded somewhat in September with a .250 AVG, 2 HR, 3 RBI and 7 R in 12 games. This season, his batting average stands at an uninspiring .213. Even though his BABIP is fairly low this year (.258), even bouncing back from this I don’t see him being much better than a .250 hitter. Thus far, his 13 HR this year is the highest he’s posted in his career. Based on this, a relatively high HR/FB rate (13.5%) and having to play half his games at Petco, I’m not sold on ability to maintain or improve power totals.
Bottom Line: Better than 2014 stats but not enough to be a realistic upgrade
Owned in 28% of leagues and is only eligible at 1B. Loney has had one of his typical seasons (for better or worse) this year. There is modest value on the batting average side as his .288 AVG is right in line with his actual ability but he has been unlucky on the power side (5.7% HR/FB rate this year versus 7.7% career total). The good news is I don’t think he’s getting worse than his 2014 numbers; the bad news is that there is very limited upside.
Bottom Line: Decent AVG, not many HR, not much upside.
Owned in 42% of leagues and also (primarily) eligible at 3B. Even with a weak second half (.220 AVG, 4 HR in 51 G), his 2014 numbers are still above his projected long-term ability. Currently he is hitting .287 but has a BABIP of .334 (career total is .299). Long-term, I see him as being closer to a .260 hitter.He made headlines by hitting 3 HR in a game earlier this year, and there appears to be some upside in the power department as his HR/FB rate (9.4%) is actually lower than his career total (10.5%). Still, he would need to turn his performance around quickly before being considered a substantial fantasy baseball upgrade as we close out the season.
Bottom Line: Modest (at best) expectations for both AVG & HR
Owned in <1% of leagues and is only eligible at 1B. If you were amongst the fraction of a percent who knew he was going to hit 3 HR last week in an attempt to help the Brewers redeem themselves after losing badly for the last few weeks, congratulations.
For the rest of us, what chance is there that he can keep this up? It’s clear that he’s not going to hit 3 HR per week or keep up his 37.5% HR/FB rate, but on the other hand much of the power he displayed is legitimate (26 HR this year in the minor leagues). I’m going to go out on a limb (disclaimer: this is coming from a Brewers fan) and say he can at least provide some more power over the last week, but before picking him up, things that need to be considered are that playing time isn’t necessarily a given (he only made three starts last week) and you need to ask what hit you’re willing to take at AVG (his .235 total is close to where he’ll end up).
Bottom Line: Power potential is intriguing but potential value capped by low AVG & playing time
Owned in 30% of leagues and also eligible at OF. With Chris Davis out, this does clear Pearce up to get additional playing time down the stretch. This year, he has gotten more opportunities to play than in the past and he has made the most of those opportunities.
Now, the question is can he keep this up for the next couple weeks? While he’s not a bad player, I’m not sure he’s as good as his 2014 surface stats indicate. He does have a higher than average BABIP (.332) compared to .297 career total but he’s likely closer to a .260 hitter than .290. He has hit 17 HR but he also has a 15.5% HR/FB Ratio (compared to 9.5% career total). While he has been a good story, I’m not sold on him keeping this up for a longer period of time, but then again he has proved this reasoning wrong for much of this year.
Bottom Line: May have one final hot streak in him, but 2014 stats better than projected long-term performance
Owned in 31% of leagues and is only eligible at 1B. Lind has been limited to 288 plate appearances but has come on strong in September with a .405 AVG, 2 HR & 9 RBI in 13 games.
While he has high upside, he also needs to be utilized properly. He has zero value against lefties (3 for 32 in 2014 and .213 career AVG in 828 PA). Also, his .326 AVG this year is aided by a much higher than usual BABIP (.369 in 2014 versus .304 career total).
In reality, he’s closer to a .270 hitter. On the contrary, his power numbers are below his demonstrated ability as he has an 8.5% HR/FB this year compared to 15% for his career. While I think he is still capable of hitting 20-25 HR per year and could be a good power boost down the stretch, expecting his AVG to stay above .300 is likely too much to ask.
Bottom Line: Good power potential but needs to be utilized properly
All stats referenced found on fangraphs.com
All ownership rates referenced based on Yahoo! Fantasy numbers
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