A month ago the New England Revolution were mired in an 8 game losing streak. The fact that the team had scored only 4 goals in 8 games and wasn’t doing anything to address their lack of a proven striker in the transfer window was a source of consternation among fans. Complaints (most of them fair) that team owner Robert Kraft was again failing the team by refusing to actually invest in putting a good product on the field were getting louder as fan frustration threatened to boil over.
NE Revolution: Revving Up for the Playoff Push
The Revs looked like a team in free fall, certain to miss the playoffs. Now, the Revolution are on a three game win streak and have risen to 3rd place in the Eastern Conference. They sit 3rd, only 6 points behind 2nd place Sporting Kansas City, with a game in hand on struggling SKC. Not only have results improved, but the team finally made a major roster investment in bringing in USMNT star Jermaine Jones.
Just over a month after it seemed that the sky was falling, all is well, and the Revs are back on track in New England.
But are they really?
Clearly the results have improved, but is that due to a turnaround by the Revolution, or is it just good timing? Over the past three games New England has beaten Chivas USA, Toronto FC, and SKC. Chivas has lost seven of their last eight. Toronto is a team in disarray on and off the field, losing three of four and firing coach Ryan Nelsen after last weekend’s lost to NE. Even Sporting Kansas City is struggling, losing four of their last five and picking up just one win in their last six. Kansas City lined up in this week’s 3-1 loss at New England without Aurelien Collin, Benny Feilhaber, and Dom Dwyer, three keys to their success this season.
So, are the Revs actually playing better, or are they just beating bad teams?
The best response to that question is probably just to say YES.
Yes, the Revs are beating bad teams, or at least teams that are playing badly right now.
Yes, the Revs are actually playing better.
In their 8 match losing streak earlier this year, the Revs lost to five teams who sit below them in the Eastern Conference standings: Montreal, New York, Philadelphia, Chicago, and Columbus. That’s five losses in which the Revs probably would have been the favorites in at least four of those games.
Even if the teams they’re beating are struggling, one thing all good teams must do is beat the teams they’re expected to beat. If a team can’t consistently beat the teams below them, they’re going to struggle to make the playoffs.
Right now, New England is beating the teams below them in the standings, and a lot of that has to do with rediscovering their scoring touch as a team. In their 8 match losing streak the Revs scored only four goals, conceding 19. In their last three games they’ve scored seven, conceding only one. Earlier this season, when New England went on a five game win streak that included wins over SKC, Seattle, and DC United, the Revs scored 16 goals in five games.
What’s weird though is that while the Revs are suddenly scoring more, chance creation is actually down during this current streak compared to their recent losing streak and the season as a whole. For the season, the Revs are creating an average of 10.5 chances per match. During their losing streak they averaged 12.9 chances created. Over their last three games though, the Revs are averaging only 8.3 chances created per game.
What is also strange is that for the season the Revs are averaging a goal for every 7.4 chances created, while in their last three games, they are averaging a goal for every 3.6 chances.
What makes their recent uptick in chance conversion even more interesting is the rate at which the Revs are shooting from outside the danger zone, generally defined as the central part (width of the 6-yard-box) of the area inside the 18-yard-box. They’re also taking a high number of shots from outside the box.
Here’s a look at their shots in the last three games. Notice how many are taken outside the box:
For the season, 50% of the shots the Revs have taken have been from outside the box. That’s compared to a league average of 43 percent. Meanwhile, only 21.6% of their goals have come from outside the box, and five of the 8 goals the Revs have scored from outside the box have been scored in their last three games.
While the team certainly appears to be playing at a higher level, it’s doubtful they can continue to rely on scoring from distance to carry them to a playoff berth.
Luckily for New England, Jermaine Jones’ arrival and integration into the team should help. While Jones is not a creative, attacking midfielder, he does contribute (remember this goal?) and his work as the anchor of that midfield should allow Lee Nguyen to focus more energy going forward. Giving Nguyen license to go forward more freely can only be a good thing for the Revs, as Nguyen has 6 goals and 2 assists in his last 6 games and is being talked about as an MLS MVP candidate.
The schedule is also favorable for New England the rest of the way. The Revs play Chicago, Montreal, Columbus, SKC, Columbus, Montreal, Houston, and Toronto, with five of their remaining games at home.
Even if the Revs have been beating struggling opponents and scoring from long distance, their recent victories pass the eye test. They’re playing better, and they’re playing with confidence. Given the ease of their remaining schedule, they should be able to ride that confidence to a playoff berth, and as we all know in MLS, once a team makes the playoffs, anything can happen.
