With less than a week until the first game of the season, most people will be having their fantasy football draft this weekend. By now most fantasy players have put together their fantasy rankings (after looking at the LWOS staff player profiles, obviously) and taken part in multiple mock draft. But simply being prepared isn’t always enough—you need every advantage you can get. Here are three top tips to make sure you dominate your draft, and your fantasy league
Take advantage of the preseason paranoia
Despite having no effect on the team’s regular season record, preseason games are watched and analysed down to the last blade of grass. As a result, a string of good or bad performances can have a major effect on not only how a team is forecast to do that season, but also a player’s fantasy projection. The problem with this is that things can change quite drastically when the regular season arrives. Phillip Rivers had a 48.3 QB rating through preseason last year, yet finished the season as the sixth ranked fantasy QB, a 2.9 TD-interception ratio and the comeback player of the year award.
Many people simply put too much emphasis on the preseason when it comes to fantasy football. This is easy to take advantage of, especially when it comes to picking up players much lower than their ADP after a bad preseason. For example, I picked up Robert Griffin III in the 11th round of a 10 team draft on Thursday, despite having an ADP in the sixth round. He may have had a poor preseason, but he still has bags of talent, and offers incredible value at this spot (especially as a QB2, but more on that later). By not overreacting, and letting others get caught up in the hype, you can snag yourself some real bargains on draft day.
Not sure which preseason stories you should factor into your draft? Make sure you read Casey Bowman’s great Preseason Propaganda series. And why not read to rest of Last Word on Sports great draft guide while you’re at it? After finishing this article, of course.
Don’t underestimate the value of your QB2
Now, let’s get back to that RG3 pick. I mentioned the fact that I picked him up as a QB2 because I believe it is a position which many fantasy owners overlook, especially in deeper leagues. With many fantasy writers talking about the devaluation of the QB due to the number of solid starters, it may seem odd to put a lot of emphasis into your QB2, especially in 10 team leagues. But this assumes one crucial thing—that your QB1 fulfills his projection and puts up good numbers for the whole season. Every year at least one star QB has either a big injury or a dip in form. This leaves whoever owns him in a disastrous position of either going to the waiver wire or relying on his QB2.
Having a strong backup QB means not only do you have a strong insurance policy, but you have a fantastic bargaining chip. It is easy to hold other fantasy players to a king’s ransom if they desperately need a QB and you have one available. For example, a couple of years ago I was able to get rid of my backup QB as part of a trade that converted Mikel Leshoure into Arian Foster. Although the trade was clearly biased in my favour, my opponent was so desperate (and insane) that he still went through with it. Just remember two things—this strategy becomes even more important in deeper drafts, where QBs are more scarce (the trade mentioned above took place in a 18-team league), and it is easier if your QB1 has an early bye week (you don’t need a QB2 after your starter’s bye week, as long as you are happy with him). As the most valuable player on your bench, it makes sense to target a strong QB2.
Keep an eye on bye weeks
It can be easy to ignore bye weeks when you have just 60 seconds to decide which player to draft. But making sure you know which players won’t play in which week can be an important part of winning your fantasy league. There are three main schools of thought when it comes to dealing with bye weeks in your fantasy team. The first is to ignore it all together, and just target the best player instead, which can be effect but could leave you in a sticky situation. The second is to try to make sure all of your starters have the similar bye weeks, leaving you with one or two weeks where you are severely depleted, yet are at full strength in the rest. The third option (my preferred strategy) is to try spread bye weeks around, so that no more than two starters have the same bye week. By targeting good backups who have different breaks to the starters at their positions, you can still have a fairly strong line-up every week, as long as your top draft picks do as well as expected.
Whichever way you go, bye weeks have to be considered in your draft. If you go for the second strategy, look for players who don’t play weeks four, nine and ten (there are six teams on a bye in each of these weeks). If you are going for strategy number three, look for players such as Lesean McCoy, Jimmy Graham and Colin Kaepernick; whose teams all share their bye week with only one other team. Make sure you check the situation of every other team in your league after your draft as well. If another owner has forgotten about bye weeks, and ends up with both his QBs or starting RBs unavailable in the same week, there is a good opportunity to make a good trade before the season has even started.
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