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Alfred Morris: NFL's Most Underrated Runningback

Most of the talk about the Redskins this off-season has either discussed quarterback Robert Griffin III or the debate as to the efficacy and integrity of the team’s name.  Both are old, tiresome conversations that need to be retired, even if temporarily.  New wide receiver DeSean Jackson has also eaten up his fair share of media discussion, but there is someone who has fallen under the radar undeservedly:  running back Alfred Morris.

Morris, 25, has not been talked about as much as today’s premier running backs. These “premier running backs” include the obvious choices: Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, Jamaal Charles, Arian Foster, and Marshawn Lynch, among others. Even Green Bay Packers rookie Eddie Lacy (Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2013) is getting more discussion than Morris has.  It seems he has so far been overlooked, or at least underappreciated, so it’s time we started talking about Alfred Morris as a great young running back in the NFL.

For starters, we must look back at Morris’ rookie season in 2012. That year he rushed for 1,613 yards (2nd behind Adrian Peterson for the year), had 13 TDs (2nd behind Arian Foster), and 100.8 yards per game (2nd behind Adrian Peterson). He broke the Redskins’ franchise record for most rushing yards in a rookie season (originally held by Clinton Portis, who had 1,516 rushing yards in his first season with Washington in 2004, though technically he played two years prior with the New Orleans Saints) and the franchise record for most touchdowns in a rookie season (originally held by Redskins Hall of Fame running back Charley Taylor, who had 10 in his rookie season). Morris also ranks third in rushing yards in a rookie season; his 1,613 rushing yards are only beaten by Eric Dickerson (1,808) and George Rogers (1,674). Certainly those accomplishments are to be celebrated, not swept under the rug and forgotten about.

But even with Morris’ breakout year in 2012, he still lived in the shadows of RGIII. While Griffin III received the credit for clinching the NFC East Division in a 28-18 victory over the Dallas Cowboys in week 17, the chart below shows otherwise:

Albert Morris vs. Robert Griffin III: Stats in Week 17, December 30th, 2012

Player Pass YDS TD INT CMP% Rating Rush YDS TD
RGIII 100 0 0 50 66.9 63 1
Morris 200 3

 

While the narrative at the time suggested RGIII led the Redskins to victory, it was actually Alfred Morris who heavily contributed to the NFC East clinching victory. No one’s denying RGIII had a spectacular 2012 rookie season for a quarterback, as he was a threat on both the passing and running ends. But the truth is Alfred Morris deserves as much credit as RGIII for the Redskins success in 2012.

Next, we tackle the following narrative: “Alfred Morris is a product of the Mike Shanahan system.” Shanahan, the former coach of the Redskins from 2010-2013, snagged Morris in the 6th round of the 2012 NFL Draft. Morris has been considered a beneficiary because of Mike Shanahan’s running game system by some.

However, if we look a bit closer, there’s more to Alfred Morris’ success than just Mike Shanahan. The best running back to play under Shanahan is the always-underrated Terrell Davis (who should be a Hall of Famer). From 1995-1998, Davis rushed for 6,413 yards, 56 touchdowns, 4.8 yards per carry, and 104.5 yards per game. In 8 playoff games, Davis rushed for 1,140 yards, 12 touchdowns, 5.6 yards per carry, and 142.5 yards per game. These are elite numbers when we talk about running backs. But Davis’ incredible 4-year start was cut short in 1999 due to various injuries, and he retired after the 2001 season.

The 2nd best running back under Shanahan was Clinton Portis, who was drafted by Denver in the 2002 NFL Draft. In his 2 years with the Broncos, Portis rushed for 3,099 yards, 29 TD, 5.5 yards per carry, and 108.4 yards per game, before being traded to the Redskins (coincidentally the team Shanahan would coach soon after getting fired by Denver in 2008) for cornerback Champ Bailey and a 2nd round pick in the 2004 NFL Draft (which ended up being running back Tatum Bell). Despite being called a system running back, from 2004-2008, Portis went on to rush for 6,103 yards, 43 touchdowns, 4.1 yards per carry, and 83.9 yards per game, before declining in 2009 and 2010. Although it’s obvious Portis’ numbers were not as good in Washington as they were with Denver, he still managed to stand on his own after being traded by Denver.

Coincidentally, Portis was also the last 1,500-yard rusher under Shanahan (rushed for 1,591 yards in 2003) before Morris exploded in his 2012 rookie season. Additionally, the last 1,000-yard rusher under Mike Shanahan before Morris was Tatum Bell, who rushed for 1,025 yards in 2006. After Bell, Shanahan did not have a 1,000-yard rusher for his next 4 years of coaching (2007, 2008, 2010, and 2011). The following are listed below:

 

Leading Rushers Under Mike Shanahan By Season: 2007-2008, 2010-2013

Year Rusher Yards TD Yards Per Carry Yards Per Game
2007 Selvin Young 729 1 5.2 48.6
2008 Peyton Hillis 343 5 5 28.6
2010 Ryan Torain 742 4 4.5 74.2
2011 Roy Helu 640 2 4.2 42.7
2012 Alfred Morris 1,613 13 4.8 100.8
2013 Alfred Morris 1,275 7 4.6 79.7

When you combine the numbers of Shanahan’s leading rushers from 2007-2011, separated with Alfred Morris’ combined numbers in his first two years, you get the results in the below chart.

 

Alfred Morris vs. Leading Rushers Under Mike Shanahan Combined (2007-2011)

Player YDS TD Yards/Carry Yards/Game
Leading Rushers (2007-2011) 2,454 12 4.7 48.5
Alfred Morris (2012-13) 2,888 20 4.7 90.3

The “Alfred Morris is a product of Mike Shanahan” talk can officially end now.

Morris’ 2012 season surpassed the TD volume Shanahan’s leading rushers form 2007, 2007, 2010, and 2011 had under him, and Morris rushed for more yards per game. It is safe to say that Alfred Morris is the best running back to spawn from the coaching of Mike Shanahan since Clinton Portis, and has the chance to become the best overall since Terrell Davis.

Moving on, we deal with Alfred Morris’ 2013 season. Morris did not have the mind-boggling spectacular season that he had in 2012, but looking at it a bit closely reveals that it wasn’t as big of a decline as one would think.

Morris’ 1,275 rushing yards were 4th in the NFL, behind LeSean McCoy (1,607), Matt Forte (1,339), Jamaal Charles (1,287) and ahead of established stars such as Adrian Peterson (1,266) and Marshawn Lynch (1,257). Morris’ 4.6 yards per attempt tied with Forte (4.6) and were ahead of Peterson (4.5), and Lynch (4.2). Consider that Morris (276) also rushed for fewer attempts than Lynch (301), Forte (289), and Peterson (279). Peterson and Morris both had a struggling offensive line, but their numbers are eerily similar.

If you’re confused by the information above, here’s a chart confirming said information.

Alfred Morris’ 2013: Comparison Of Stats With Other Running Backs

Rusher Attempts YDS TD Y/Rush Y/Game
LeSean McCoy 314 1,607 9 5.1 100.4
Adrian Peterson 279 1,266 10 4.5 90.4
Marshawn Lynch 301 1,257 12 4.2 78.6
Jamaal Charles 259 1,287 12 5 85.8
Matt Forte 289 1,339 9 4.6 83.7
Alfred Morris 276 1,275 7 4.6 79.7

According to FootballPerspective.com, Morris also led the NFL in carries of 25+ yards in 2013, having 8 of those. Considering the Redskins’ faulty offensive line last year, leading the league in a stat like that is remarkable. Morris also helped the Redskins rank 5th in rushing offense last year, despite RGIII only rushing for 489 yards, as compared to 815 the previous year, where the Redskins ranked first in rushing offense.

Don’t act surprised if Morris’ numbers skyrocket with a much improved offensive line in Washington come 2014.

Then again, new head coach Jay Gruden himself may be the reason Morris possibly declines in 2014. Gruden, who was the offensive coordinator of the Cincinnati Bengals from 2011-2013 (the same time quarterback Andy Dalton and wide receiver A.J. Green were drafted), developed Dalton and Green into a pass-happy offense, with Dalton attempting 500+ passes in each of his first three seasons in the NFL. Dalton has thrown 1,630 passes for 11,360 yards and 80 TD; 27 of those were thrown to Green.

It’s clear that Gruden preferred a pass-happy offense during his time as offensive coordinator with the Bengals before leaving Cincinnati for the Redskins head coaching spot. RGIII and newcomer DeSean Jackson will certainly get a chance to benefit from Gruden’s pass attack philosophy, but the same might not be said for Morris. The rush offense under Gruden was below average in rushing yards for all three seasons. However, there’s the possibility Gruden has learned quite a bit from his Bengals days, as he left Cincinnati without winning a single playoff game. Perhaps this fact will convince him to use a balance between RGIII’s passing and Morris’ rush attack.

At the end of the day, while we know Alfred Morris is not yet on the level of Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, or Jamaal Charles, he has proven his worth to the NFL, and it’s a shame he is not talked about as much as other running backs in the league. His production is right there with today’s elite running backs, and with a little more experience, Morris can explode onto their tier.

Morris, when used, has the “Beast Mode” rush style of Marshawn Lynch, and has been a burden for the defenses to take down, as evident by his 8 carries of 25+ yards last season. His strength is another advantage, as he has used it to gain extra yardage in the past. Proper usage of his elusiveness, strength, volume, and efficiency is a necessity if the Redskins want to continue the success the 2012 season promised them.

In conclusion, if Jay Gruden plans to use Alfred Morris to his fullest extent, it’s going to be an ugly day on the field for opposing defenses.

 

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(Stats via pro-football-reference.com, footballperspective.com)

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