It appears like the “Big Four” will continue to rule men’s tennis for the next few years, so it’s probably a little early to worry about the future of the ATP Tour. But with Roger Federer getting up there in age, and Andy Murray, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic having extra years-worth of matches under their belts, they won’t be at the top of the game forever.
When that time comes, tennis will need a new group of stars to ease the transition. Otherwise, the sport may find itself in another one of its dark ages. At this point, it’s still unclear whether the next generation has what it takes to prevent a major drop off in interest.
Historically, tennis thrives on marketable stars and compelling rivalries. McEnroe, Borg and Connors were instrumental to tennis’s success in the 70s and 80s, and Sampras and Agassi did their part in the 90s. Federer and Nadal took the game to new levels in recent years, and Nadal’s rivalry with Djokovic has been just as compelling.
In between these great eras there have been less appealing periods, where majors are won by interchangeable and uninspiring veterans. There was a stretch in the post-Sampras pre-Federer era where the likes of Thomas Johansson, Gaston Gaudio, Albert Costa and Petr Korda won grand slam titles. Needless to say, this was not exactly the golden age of men’s tennis.
It is inevitable that the Big Four will not be followed by another crop of all-time greats. Given how high the standard has been set, it would be hard for anyone to look good in comparison. However, tennis needs some consistent and marketable stars to fill the void once the Big Four starts winding down. There are some exciting players on the horizon that could carry the torch, but each player has some serious question marks.
In the best case scenario, Grigor Dimitrov and Kei Nishikori continue their upward climb and develop into superstars, and Juan Martin Del Potro stays healthy and returns to his previous stellar form.
The ATP Tour is well aware of the marketing potential of both Dimitrov and Nishikori. They are both within reach of the top 10, and are only 23 and 24 years old. In an era where players thrive in their late 20s, they are both hitting their stride at about the right time.
Dimitrov is known for his talented all-around game, resemblance to Federer, athleticism, charisma, and being the boyfriend of Maria Sharapova. (There were Serena rumors as well). While he has not arrived as quickly as everyone hoped or expected, his progress has been extremely steady. He improves his ranking significantly every year, going from 288 to 106 to 76 to 48 to 23, to now just outside the top ten halfway through the year. It would be surprising if Dimitrov fails to become a fixture in the top ten, but tennis will need him to start challenging for majors and reach even higher.
Nishikori has smooth groundstrokes, great racquet speed, good court coverage and the ability to crack the ball off both wings. He was recently dominating Nadal on a clay court in a French Open tune-up before hurting his back. He currently sits at 7th in the points race for the year, and it would be surprising if he finishes outside the top ten. Furthermore, Nishikori’s success has been helping to grow the game in Asia, which is a fast growing tennis market. Should he continue to improve and become a threat to win grand slams, he could do wonders for the games’ popularity.
Del Potro already has a vast fan base around the world, and possesses unprecedented power. If he can stay healthy, and returns to his pre-injury form, tennis will be in good hands. His strokes may be more reminiscent of a caveman swinging a club than an artist painting with a brush, but his immense power makes it entertaining to watch nonetheless.
These three would provide a good foundation to carry the game into its next era, but each still has question marks. Despite all his talent, Dimitrov remains prone to some puzzling losses. He has rarely played his best at the grand slams, and needs to get more consistent on a week to week basis. His improved fitness and experience should help him overcome these issues, and he is clearly headed in the right direction. But despite his positive trend, until he starts competing for bigger titles on a more frequent basis, questions will remain about whether he is tennis’s next superstar.
Nishikori is also trending in the right direction, but seems to have trouble withstanding the physical grind of the ATP Tour. A variety of injuries have slowed his progress, and they have kept him from being an even bigger star up to this point. There are also questions about whether his game is big enough to truly dominate the tour, although people do tend to underestimate the pop he can produce off the ground.
Injuries have kept Del Potro from potentially dominating the sport, and we will never know where his US Open win could have taken him had he stayed healthy. In a fairer world he would be sitting on a handful of majors by now, but wrist surgeries have knocked years off his career. Every time he comes back and begins to build momentum, it seems like another injury knocks him out for the rest of the season. If he returns healthy and can stay this way, there is no reason why he shouldn’t return to the top of the game. But if tennis is banking on Del Potro to carry the tour going forward, they might want to consider knocking about 6 months off the season.
If everything goes as planned, Dimitrov, Nishikori and Del Potro will keep improving, stay healthy and blossom into the next set of superstars. They are all extremely popular amongst tennis fans, and are well suited to carry the game. But if Dimitrov never finds his consistency, and Nishikori and Del Potro cannot conquer their injury troubles, tennis could be in for a rough stretch following the Big Four’s dominance. An occasional first time grand slam winner is exciting, but too many in a short stretch gives the appearance that there are no dominant players. Tennis fans better enjoy these next couple of years, because the next few may have them tuning into reruns on the tennis channel.
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