Adreian Payne
School: Michigan State
Height: 6’9″
Weight: 240 pounds
Position: Power Forward
NBA Comparison: Robert Horry
Adreian Payne capped off a legendary career as a Michigan State Spartan this past season by leading his squad to the Elite 8. While they came up short to the eventual champions (Connecticut), Payne cemented himself as a dominant force not only in the post, but also on the perimeter. Can he have the same effect in the NBA?
Strengths:
True big men are a rare find in college basketball. Sure, plenty of players can have size- but are they polished? Can they adjust their game to have an advantage over the competition? Payne’s four years in East Lansing proved invaluable. Playing for Tom Izzo didn’t hurt, either. Payne’s biggest advantage in the post is his toughness and positioning. He is very physical and gritty on the inside. He possesses deceiving explosiveness which was never more clear than when he did this dunk.
While he has size to hit the boards (7′ wingspan to boot), affect shots and post up, Payne also has a knack for the long range. In his first two years, he shot three three-pointers. In his junior and senior seasons, he attempted 146 and went 40% from deep. He can pull out many a defender to create more space for his teammates. His ability to hit shots makes him a threat on the pick and roll, as he could either attack the basket or step out for a jumper. His consistent free throws make teams salivate, too. Payne’s final two years saw him go 81% from the charity stripe, including a perfect 17-17 performance in the Spartan’s 93-78 NCAA Tournament win over Delaware this spring. He totaled 41 points, 8 rebounds and went 4-5 from three-point land.
Payne also has intangibles that compliment his game: discipline, leadership and lots of character and integrity. The last two were put on display when his relationship with Lacey Holsworth. He is not a player that coaches will have to worry about being focused by off-the-court distractions.
Weaknesses:
Payne can be seen as stiff at times, with his athleticism not on the same level as other potential draft picks. While he has the ability to get inside and crash the boards, he must increase his consistency. His 7.3 rebounds per game can be improved on, as he only had seven games with double digit boards in 2013-14. Payne’s lack of a strong base has been noted, and can have an affect on his rebounding and defensive game. He is not a “shot swatter”, averaging less than one block per game as a senior.
His handles on the offensive end come in to question at times, as does his ability to play extended minutes due to his lung capacity. He would likely struggle in a fast-paced offense. His shot takes longer to set up than most, and he has a bad habit of bringing the ball down even when he gets it up high.
Payne has the tools, but at times can be taken out of the game. His motor has been a source of doubt for skeptics. On top of any other concerns, Payne is 23 and may not have as a high a ceiling as other players.
Verdict:
Payne’s game may not jump off the page or wow teams like those of other players (Wiggins, Parker, Exum, Randle), but he can be a productive big man in the NBA. Give him time to develop his rebounding and sharpen his shot selection while improving his conditioning and Payne will carve out a nice career in the NBA. The 14-18 range is likely where he will go. I could see him going to the Suns at 14, Hawks at 15 or Suns again at 18.
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