On Saturday night, Jamie McMurray pulled a NASCAR upset by winning his first Sprint All-Star Race and hoisting a $1 million check in the process. After suffering some of the worst breaks of any group in the Sprint Cup Series’ garage, the victory was much-needed for McMurray and crew.
Typically, a victory of this magnitude can translate into positive momentum for the winning team. But if one were to look at the record books, history suggests that a victory in the All-Star Race does not necessarily translate into success in next weekend’s longest race – the Coca-Cola 600.
Since 2001, the winner of the Sprint All-Star Race has only swept the two Charlotte weekends on three separate occasions with the most recent winner being Kurt Busch in 2010, while driving the No.2 Miller Lite Dodge for Roger Penske. In fact, since 2001 the average finish for winners of the All-Star Race in the Coca-Cola 600 is a less-than-satisfactory 15th. To crunch the numbers even more, in the last 13 Coca-Cola 600s the All-Star Race victor has finished 19th or worse eight times with no one scoring a top 10 since 2010.
After hearing reading those numbers, some would ponder how a driver and team that hit the jackpot in the All-Star Race could finish so poorly the week after.
Well, when one compares the races, it’s easy to see why the success disparity is so high.
The All-Star Race and the Coca-Cola 600 are completely opposite races. Yes, they are run at the same track and are run under very similar conditions, but each event presents completely different challenges.
The All-Star Race is an all-out sprint.
Teams come to this event with basically qualifying setups for the short segments that will be run – a long-run car or setup is worthless in this race. In addition, teams also bring out the most power in their power plants that they can muster. They essentially try to out-run their competition with brute speed throughout the night and don’t necessarily care if an engine goes up in smoke (they also use the data from the engine to determine its performance and durability in anticipation for the 600-mile race). In layman’s terms, the All-Star race is a make or break event.
On the other hand, the Coca-Cola 600 is a marathon.
Teams either bring proven chassis that have been run on this type of racetrack or they unveil their newest bullets. Unlike the lightning-fast setups that are run in the All-Star Race, teams set their cars up for long, 40 and 50-lap runs, not those 20-lap bursts. In addition, engine builders are more conservative with the power plant since they will be running the longest distance of the season – a team can’t win the race if the engine doesn’t last at least 600 miles. And finally, drivers are prepped for an endurance race so they are given lots fluids, if not IVs to avoid fatigue and dehydration. Drivers, on average, lose about six pounds in a 400 or 500 mile event, so one can imagine the toll a 600-mile race takes on the human body. In hindsight, the Coca-Cola 600 is a race of patience and survival.
Now, this doesn’t mean that McMurray can’t win next Sunday.
McMurray is very capable and has a reputation for winning big Sprint Cup Series races. McMurray won NASCAR’s two biggest races in the same season – the 2010 Daytona 500 and Brickyard 400. He is also a two-time winner at Charlotte Motor Speedway with his first career victory coming in October, 2002 in just his second start.
McMurray and his No.1 team has shown speed this season, only for misfortune to befall them on a frequent basis. The best example was one week ago at Kansas Speedway when McMurray had the steering on his car fail in turns 3 and 4 and crashed hard while running 4th.
With that said, many won’t place McMurray as a favorite for next weekend’s race. There are other drivers and teams that have established themselves as the “expert” picks.
But if there’s one race (other than Talladega) that can produce unpredictable winners, it’s the Coca-Cola 600. Not many predicted Casey Mears pulling the upset and winning his first career race in 2007. No one had David Reutimann as their pick for the 2009 running. How about Kevin Harvick winning the 2011 Coke 600 after Dale Earnhardt, Jr. ran out of gas in turn 4 on the final lap?
History doesn’t favor McMurray’s chances of pulling the Charlotte sweep. But if McMurray and crew can hang around, bide their time and survive the carnage, he might just add a Coca-Cola 600 victory to his résumé.
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