Since my last mock, a lot has changed (not least the news thatMichael Sam will become the first ever openly gay player to enter the draft). Both the order of the draft and number of underclass-men entering (which this year stands at a staggering 98) have been finalized, and the two biggest all-star games, the East-West Shrine game and Senior Bowl, have come and gone.
Now that the season has ended, both media and team scouts have started going back over some of this year’s biggest stars with a fine-toothed comb (you can see the reports of Last Word on Sports very own Alex Sibo here). As a result, although five of the top seven pick are as they were in my January Mock Draft and Part 2, all but three picks are different.
1. Houston Texans- Teddy Bridgewater, QB
Nothing has changed here. The Texans’ biggest need is still a quarterback, and despite internet reports Teddy Bridgewater is still the best guy available. Considering the quality of the rest of the Texans team, a good draft class spearheaded by a top QB should see them return to at least the number two spot in the AFC south immediately.
2. St. Louis Rams (from Washington)- Jake Mathews, OT
Again, there is no need to make this pick any different- the Rams, who are very likely to trade down, fill one of their main needs with one of the best players in the draft. Even though Greg Robertson has shot up many people’s draft boards recently (including mine; I’ll get to him later), I still think Mathews is a better fit for the rams due to his versatility and better all-round play.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars- Jadaveon Clowney, DE
Jacksonville have a big decision to make at pick three; do you take your top QB in round one, or take the elite pass rusher and go after a signal caller later on? Having had time to further evaluate this class, I think the depth at QB means that I have the Jaguars going with the latter at the moment. Expect Clowney to destroy the combine and to not make it past pick five in May.
4. Cleveland Browns, Johnny Manziel, QB
Despite the Browns seemingly constant coach and front office changes, their glaring need at QB remains. They have to address this with their first pick, and luckily they still have quite a few options at 4. Although much could change between now and May, I think Johnny Football is still their top choice. He is undoubtedly a divisive player, but his game changing ability and potential is truly unique.
5. Oakland Raiders- Anthony Barr, OLB
The Raiders have a lot of work to do this offseason (PFF has 12 of their current starters, excluding free agents, as below average or worse), but they are in a good position to improve. Expect to see them attack free agency, with nearly $60 million in cap space. Afterwards, they will have to find as many starters and potential superstars in the draft as possible. One desperate need is to find a better pass rushers, and although UCLA’s Barr is raw, he has a ton of potential.
6. Atlanta Falcons- Greg Robinson, OT
If the Falcons don’t pick a lineman with this pick, I think I might just move to Nepal and become a goat farmer. They desperately need help in the trenches, and have to take the best player available on either side of the ball. Although the dream may be Clowney, Robinson is more likely to be the reality. But that’s not a bad thing by any means, considering how dominant he was for Auburn this year.
7. Tampa Bay Buccaneers- Sammy Watkins, WR
Buccaneers fans may be praying that Clowney falls to them in the draft, but that’s about as crazy as drafting a kicker in the first round (why is anyone surprised Michael Lombardi was fired after only one year?). Instead, I have them taking the best receiver in this class to compliment Vincent Jackson and to give much needed help to Mike Glennon. Watkins is the definition of a playmaker, and can cause a world of trouble from both the slot and on the outside.
8. Minnesota Vikings- Derek Carr, QB
Let’s keep this one simple – the Vikings are screaming out for a QB, and Carr has the arm strength many Minnesota fans dreamed Christian Ponder had. Combine this with an all-pro wide receiver and Norv Turner as the Offensive Co-ordinator, and this offense could turn around quicker than many expect.
9. Buffalo Bills- Eric Ebron, TE
Although they could go one of many different ways, the best player available at a position of need is Eric Ebron. Although his high drop rate and reports about putting on weight are a concern, the 6’4” monster out of North Carolina would be a big upgrade for the bills at tight end, and should give EJ Manuel much needed help over the middle.
10. Detroit Lions- Darqueze Dennard, CB
There are three positions I see the Lions addressing here- corner, wide receiver or outside linebacker. Although Mike Evans and Khalil Mack are both extremely tempting, in-state stud Dennard would immediately improve a secondary which ranked in the bottom 10 for pass defense last season.
11. Tennessee Titans- Blake Bortles, QB
Is QB the Titans biggest need? No. But if Bortles falls to them, he makes perfect sense. Although Jake Locker has not been bad in his first three years with the Titans, he has certainly had his issues. The biggest concerns around him are injuries, having missed 14 games in the last two seasons, and accuracy (an issue underlined perfectly by this PFF article). Bortles is has a similar build to Locker, but has a better arm (he finishes his college career with a completion percentage of 66.2 compared to Locker’s 53.9 coming out of Washington). With a year to learn behind Locker before his rookie contract expires, Bortles would have the time to iron out some of the current concerns about him before he becomes the new figurehead of the Ken Whisenhunt era.
12. New York Giants- Khalil Mack, OLB
This is the dream scenario for the Giants. They need to find upgrades at both outside linebacker spots, and Mack more than fits the bill. Mack finishes his college career with the most tackles for a loss and forced fumbles in history, and is no slouch in pass coverage either, getting his hands on passes 10 times this season. Considering the Giants difficulties getting sacks last season, Mack’s blitzing ability is a bonus too.
13. St. Louis Rams- Hasean Clinton-Dix, FS
I expect the Rams to go defense with this pick if they go offense with their first. If so, they could try to fill holes at DT, S or CB. The best player available at these positions is safety Hasean Clinton-Dix, who has been the consensus top prospect at his position all season.
14. Chicago Bears- Ra’Shede Hageman, DT
After tying up Jay Cutler to a long term deal, the Bears now have to spend the offseason concentrating on the defense. Although I still have the Bears taking a defensive lineman in the first, he is very different to Vic Beasley. Instead, I see them concentrating on the interior, with behemoth Ra’Shede Hageman. Although the path to stardom was not easy, Hageman proved himself to be a big-time player in Minnesota in more ways than one. He brings versatility, power and a big body that the Bears defense desperately needs.
15. Pittsburgh Steelers- CJ Mosley, LB
I would be shocked if Mosley drops this far come May, but I have him falling to the Steelers here due to the priorities of the teams above them. Although linebacker is arguably Pittsburgh’s third biggest need behind receiver and corner, the chance to get someone of Mosley’s caliber cannot be missed. He has lots of experience playing excellent football as part of a 3-4 defense in the toughest conference in college football, and would fit perfectly opposite Lawrence Timmons.
16. Baltimore Ravens- Mike Evans, WR
This is as far as Evans makes it come draft day, and I would not be surprised to see a team like San Francisco trade up to get him. He is unquestionably the second best receiver in this class, and should go on to become a difference maker at the next level. He is also a perfect fit for Baltimore who need to improve their receivers. Combine Evans’ ability with Flacco’s cannon arm, and you have a potent combination.
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