The term “playoffs” isn’t exactly synonymous with the Colorado Rockies. In fact, they have only reached the playoffs three times in their twenty-one seasons. So it’s slightly depressing that it is more valid discussing the query “can they” rather than “will they”.
Colorado Rockies Look To Make it Back to MLB Playoffs
In order to make the playoffs in Major League Baseball, there are so many various components involved, that statisticians and philosophers have been crunching numbers, both real and theoretical, to try to explain and predict the oddities involved with the game. As accurate or inaccurate saber metrics have proven to be, they have at least proven that sometimes there are things that can never be explained.
Take into account the 2007 Colorado Rockies, who defied all odds winning twenty out of twenty-one games in order to reach the World Series, and then fell flat against their faces playing the Red Sox. There was no indication beforehand nor valid explanation after referring to this feat, and subsequent fall, other than terms that describe the vague: focus, emotions, confidence, and luck. The only thing saber metrics could prove is how far from perfect the game of baseball really is.
Taking this into account, I will go out on a low-risk, high-reward limb, and claim that the Colorado Rockies will need focus, emotions, confidence, and luck in order to make the playoffs.
Now of course you can’t take any assembly of forty random men, and add the intangibles explained above to create a competing MLB team. There needs to be a combination of skill and the intangibles. So uncontrollable aspects of the game aside, do the Colorado Rockies have a playoff competent roster?
In previous years, all indications show that on offense alone, the Rockies would be one of the perennial greats. In a question and answer session on twitter today, the Rockies’ owner, Dick Monfort, revealed his starting line-up. It was an offensive juggernaut featuring second hitter Michael Cuddyer, all the way down to Nolan Arenado hitting seventh. In between you have Carlos Gonzalez and Troy Tulowitzki, two stars who have local fans salivating over the thought of their possible production, something that the injury-bug has made impossible thus far. But there is hope otherwise.
Offensively, the Rockies are poised and projected to be contending. But unfortunately for the Blake Street Bombers, an inning has two-halves for a reason: you also have to play defense. And that is where you find a whole world of skeptics, myself included.
In order for the Rockies to make the playoffs, they need to have solid starting pitching, bottom to top. Currently they have half of their rotation set, with Jhoulys Chacin, Jorge De La Rosa, and Tyler Chatwood. The other two slots will be a battle for what perhaps could be the entire season, and the success that comes from them will be a huge factor for Colorado’s playoff hopes. Last season, the combined record from the fourth and fifth slot starters was 16-44. According to Fangraphs.com, this led to their bullpen having to pitch the second most innings in the MLB, at 555.2 innings. In comparison, their starters only pitched 880.1 innings, meaning that the starters only pitched 61.3% of the game, or on average 5.5 innings.
The options aren’t incredibly thin to fill the void, however. They have a mixture of both veteran and prospect options. The two returning from last year are Juan Nicaso (9-9) and Chad Bettis (0-3), both whom are expected to improve. They also traded for Brett Anderson, a power arm. And their two best prospects in the eyes of Fangraphs, Eddie Butler and Jonathan Gray, will be in contention for this spot. This excites and intrigues those who follow Colorado. Their value is high, and both have top of the rotation talent.
It is projected that both make their debut this season. In fact, Rockies beat writer, Troy Renck, believes that Butler will make his debut in the first half of the season. This leads to believe that by the end of the season, Colorado may have a set rotation of five for the first time in a couple of seasons, something that gives optimism for future success. This comes as a grain of salt, though, because there still is a high amount of uncertainty for any Rockies pitcher.
Unfortunately for Colorado, fairness and equality doesn’t exist so much in baseball. With a lower payroll, and an unfair park in Coors Field (both for and against them), they have consistency and uniformity going against them. The players they need to complete their team are out of reach, and the prospects that seem perfect to fill in a role, usually can’t acclimate (no pun intended) and produce close to what they were projected. As many players have said about playing in Denver, “it’s hard on the body and the mind”. And if there were ever a sport where you needed your mind and body synchronized as much as possible, that would be baseball.
Indeed the Rockies “can” make the playoffs, but it would take a perfect storm of production and luck. They need focus for execution, a positive attitude to overcome the stigmas, and to be emotionally invested into winning. And with the tough division they are in, and the amount of questions involved, it’s a safe bet that Colorado won’t make in the playoffs in 2014.
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