On December 9, 2013, Rudy Gay was traded from the Toronto Raptors to the Sacramento Kings. Many presumed this was Masai Ujiri waving his white flag on the Toronto Raptors season. Over the next few days, rumours circulated that Kyle Lowry was next to go and he would be a New York Knick for the remainder of the year.
Thankfully for Raptor fans, James Dolan pulled the plug on the deal and Lowry remained a Raptor. Since all the rumours and trade speculation were reported, Kyle Lowry has been playing at an all-star level.
On Monday night, Lowry put on his gutsiest performance as a Raptor, in a 104-103 win over the Brooklyn Nets. On hand for the game was the Raptors GM, who over the next few weeks will have a tough decision to make.
What to do with Kyle Lowry?
As the trade deadline approaches, Masai has 3 options:
- Trade Lowry
- Play it out and let him walk at end of season
- Re-sign Lowry
So which option is best?
#1 – Trade Lowry
Marc Stein of ESPN reported that the Raptors are still open to trading Lowry if their asking price is met.
But is this the best option? What could the Raptors get if they go this route?
My assumption is that Masai Ujiri would be looking for the following:
- 2014 1st round pick (preferably in the lottery)
- A young forward
- Expiring contract
The problem with trading Lowry is that non-playoff teams are salivating at the 2014 draft class and will be hard pressed to trade their first round lottery selection for a player who could walk away at season’s end.
The best chance that Masai has is to find a trading partner looking to add a piece for their playoff run. However, this means he would have to settle for a pick between 15 and 30 in the 2014 draft. Another issue is that most playoff-bound teams already have a legit starting point guard and are not likely to pay Masai’s asking price for a player who would be coming off their bench.
On the other hand, it’s always fun to speculate. I believe that if there is one team that could make a move for Lowry, it would be the Phoenix Suns.
The Suns have 3 first round picks (18, 22, and 30) in the upcoming NBA Draft and with Eric Bledsoe out indefinitely, a deal to land Lowry could help keep their playoff aspirations alive. Could a package of Markieff Morris, the expiring contract of Emeka Okafor, and the 18th overall pick entice Masai? Probably not.
There would have to be other parts involved to make the deal work, and I don’t think Masai wants to alienate the Toronto fans by having Dwight Buycks or Julyan Stone backing up Greivis Vasquez for the remainder of the season.
#2. Let him walk at the end of the season
If Masai decides to let Lowry walk, what are his options for replacing him in free agency? Let me provide you with a sample of names from the 2014 free agent PG class:
- Eric Bledsoe (restricted)
- Isaiah Thomas (restricted)
- Rodney Stuckey
- Mario Chalmers
- Mo Williams
- Nate Robinson
- Jordan Crawford (restricted)
- Shaun Livingston
- Ramon Sessions
- Kirk Hinrich
- Darren Collison (restricted)
Would you want any of these point guards starting next year for the Raptors? One could argue for Eric Bledsoe, but he would be coming off a knee injury, and since he is a restricted free agent, you would have to throw a ton of money his way for Phoenix to let him go.
There are some serviceable names on this list (Hinrich, Stuckey, Collison), but none that you would want as your starting point guard over Lowry.
3. Re-Sign Lowry?
Kyle Lowry’s contract this season is a bargain at 6.2 million. He is averaging 16.8 PTS/ 7.6 AST/ 4.3 REB/ 1.6 STL with a 20.43 PER.
So what would be the number to re-sign Lowry at?
One way to determine his value is to compare him with point guards who have similar statistics, who are roughly the same age, and who are around the same point in their careers.
|
*2013-2014 per game statistics |
|||||||
|
Player |
Points |
Assists |
Rebounds |
Steals |
PER |
Age |
**2014 – 2015 Salary |
| Kyle Lowry |
16.8 |
7.6 |
4.3 |
1.60 |
20.43 |
27 |
??? |
| John Wall |
19.8 |
8.5 |
4.4 |
1.93 |
19.91 |
23 |
13.7 mil |
| Ty Lawson |
17.9 |
8.9 |
3.4 |
1.49 |
20.12 |
26 |
11.6 mil |
| Mike Conley |
18.2 |
6.3 |
2.6 |
1.52 |
21.30 |
26 |
8.9 mil |
| Brandon Jennings |
16.9 |
8.2 |
3.2 |
1.56 |
16.60 |
24 |
8.0 mil |
| Jeff Teague |
16.2 |
7.3 |
2.8 |
1.26 |
16.12 |
25 |
8.0 mil |
| Combined Average |
17.6 |
7.8 |
3.5 |
1.56 |
19.08 |
25.16 |
10.04 mil |
*stats provided by espn.com / **salaries provide by basketball-reference.com
Lowry’s numbers are on the same level when compared to the above point guards. However, Masai will need to take into account Lowry’s track record before making a decision. Drafted in 2006, it has taken 7 years for Lowry to finally play at an all-star level and with a history of under-performing on Memphis and Houston; Masai would have to be certain that Lowry has now turned the corner.
Based on the stats above and regardless of Lowry’s past, I believe the best option is to re-sign him. Having Lowry commit to a 4-5 year deal worth 9.5-10 million per year seems fair for both sides.
For Masai, he gets an all-star caliber point guard, at a good rate, going into the prime of his career.
For Lowry, he is cashing in after one great year, while being given the opportunity to become a cornerstone piece on a playoff team.
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