Have I mentioned how much I love it when the Pac-12 plays games that are at a reasonable hour on the East Coast? 7pm EST!
When Oregon Has The Ball
A lot has changed for the Ducks since I previewed the Oregon-Washington game two weeks ago. Freshman tight end John Mundt has emerged as the replacement for Colt Lyerla. He’s now the team’s third-leading receiver, with 12 catches for 216 yards and 2 TDs. With running back De’Anthony Thomas still injured (he’s expected to return this week, although probably with limited carries), Byron Marshall has been dominant, with freshman Thomas Tyner proving himself to be a very capable number two back. The Ducks have a staggering 33 rushing TDs so far, with Marshall or Tyner responsible for 16 of them. Quarterback Marcus Mariota is now firmly entrenched in the Heisman discussion, with several pundits and websites considering him the favorite. One thing that hasn’t changed- Mariota’s stat line is still ridiculous. He’s thrown for 2,051 yards and 19 TDs, and has 9 rushing TDs, with no interceptions. His top targets continue to be Josh Huff and Bralon Addison, with 12 TDs and well over 1,000 yards between the two.
So will UCLA be able to do what no one else has, and stop this onslaught of an offense?
Oregon still ranks #1 in the nation in total offense, although their average points per game has dropped to 57.6, and they still run the up-tempo offense. What I said two weeks ago about Washington still applies- to win this game, the Bruins’ defensive line will have to absolutely manhandle the Oregon offensive line, not just getting to Mariota, but getting to him quickly. If not, he’ll either have an open receiver, dump the ball off to a running back, or leave the Bruins’ front seven in the dust. Limiting what Mariota can do on first and second downs and putting the Ducks into obvious passing situations on third down may help; then again, looking at the Ducks’ receiving numbers, it may not. UCLA also has to win the turnover battle- and remember, Mariota still hasn’t thrown a pick this year. (He did have two fumbles last week, his first turnovers of the season). UCLA ranks 17th in the nation in points allowed, and it’s not as if they haven’t faced good competition. One guy to keep an eye on is linebacker Anthony Barr, who leads the team with 11 tackles for loss. In fact, UCLA’s entire linebacking corps is probably the best in the Pac-12; even Myles Jack, a freshman, has 32 tackles and an INT and was mentioned in the October 21 issue of Sports Illustrated as one of the five freshmen making the biggest impact on their teams this season.
When UCLA Has The Ball
The Bruins have suffered several injuries of late that have had a significant impact on the running game. Starting running back Jordon James has missed two games with an ankle injury, and both starting offensive tackles are injured as well; UCLA is currently starting two true freshman on the offensive line. Fortunately for the Bruins, guard Xavier Su’a-Filo is one of the best in the country at his position and he is healthy. The injured James leads the team with 463 rushing yards and 5 TDs; quarterback Brett Hundley and his former high-school teammate Paul Perkins have 287 and 238 yards respectively, and three TDs each. Only one other player on the roster has a rushing TD this season. One thing UCLA has going for them is balance, with their 15 TDs coming on the ground and 14 through the air. Shaquelle Evans is the leading receiver with 319 yards and 5 TDs, and Devin Fuller is second with 300 yards and two TD. Seven other players, including Hundley, have one apiece. Don’t be surprised to see the Bruins do a fair amount of passing in this game; Hundley is fairly reliable, completing 66.8% of his passes, and the shuffled offensive line could make the ground game more difficult.
The number one thing I expect Oregon to do is test the offensive line, maybe trying some stunts and different formations to see if they can confuse the less experienced players up front. They’ll likely be putting extra guys in the box, both to stop the run and to try and get some sacks or at least extra pressure on Hundley. UCLA is averaging just over 300 passing yards per game, so stopping the run by itself won’t be enough, but Oregon’s backfield returns all four starters from a year ago, and they have 11 INTs on the year. Junior cornerback Terrance Mitchell has four INTs this season, including one he returned 51 yards for a TD last week. Throwing away from his side of the field would be smart. If the Ducks can get pressure on Hundley and stop the run on first and second downs, and force the Bruins into third-and-long situations, dropping more guys into coverage, I like their odds.
Prediction
It’s a shame UCLA isn’t healthier on offense, because this had potential to be a close and really entertaining game. I still don’t expect a blowout, but I think the possible issues with the run game hurt the Bruins chances significantly. Oregon 42, UCLA 30
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