NHL Yearbooks: Comparing Last Year’s Predictions to Actual Results (Part One)

I subscribe to a few magazines that range in interests: PC stuff, science, and hockey. The Hockey News is my main source of, well, hockey news, but I do enjoy buying all kinds of books that preview each NHL season. The mags call them “Yearbooks” while I just call them “good reads” and leave it at that. The thing about these magazines is that they all have experts; people who have watched, read, and wrote about hockey for the better half of their lives. They clearly know what they are talking about. We trust these guys because they are experts. Experts who give us an overview of our teams and while you may agree and disagree, they get paid for it and you do not.

Until now I have hardly ever really questioned their thoughts and recommendations, and have never thought to return to past seasons and see if they really are any good at giving predictions in the first place. Have I been reading these blindly accepting what they tell me, or do they actually have the ability to predict the standings better than you or me? So let’s take a look back and compare three books to see who did a better job predicting a team’s position.

For this three-part series, I have decided to compare three very respected sources of hockey – the Hockey News Yearbook, Sports Forecaster, and McKeen’s Hockey Pool Yearbook with my own from last year. (West and East)

15th – Colorado Avalanche
Can’t say the Avalanche had much success last season, but their failure was truly legendary. The only good thing to come out of last season’s debacle was that they won the lottery and secured the first pick overall in the 2013 entry draft. Other than that, not much else that would have been considered a bright spot happened. Av’s prospect and prodigal son Ryan O’Reilly returned from the KHL, but with his dad and Calgary GM Jay Feaster’s meddling, he forced the Avalanche management into paying him a lot more than he’s proven that he deserves. Veteran goaltender Jean-Sébastien Giguère had a minor public meltdown and called his young teammates out toward the end of the season when he felt that, instead of focusing on the next game, they were focused more on what they were doing with themselves after the complete failure came to a conclusion.

On this roster that bristles with young talent, there was no reason for this team to only win five games within their division. They were 26th overall in goals per game, 27th in goals against, their power play was 24th in the league, and their penalty kill ranked 20th. P.A. Parenteau led the team in scoring, and turned out to be a nice surprise, but mostly it was ugly.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 12th
McKeen’s – 13th
Sport Forecaster – 3rd
The Hockey News – 14th

14th -Nashville Predators
After an impressive 2011-12 season where they finished second in the Central Division and fourth in the Western Conference with 104 points, the Nashville Predators plummeted to the bottom of the league last year during their post-lockout attempt at making their fourth straight playoff appearance.

Needless to say, they failed to do so.

The only team that managed to win fewer games than the Preds was the Florida Panthers with 15, and with all due respect to Florida’s organization, that for Nashville is a pitiful statistic. While there were many different potential reasons for the Predators not succeeding last season, I’m not going to make any excuses for them.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 6th
McKeen’s – 7th
Sports Forecaster – 10th
The Hockey News – 8th

13th – Calgary Flames
If the Flames organization had a slogan in 2013, it was undoubtedly “one step forward, two steps back”.

Injuries to starting goaltender Miikka Kiprusoff, as well as young forwards Mikael Backlund and Sven Baertschi certainly didn’t help. Compounding matters was captain Jarome Iginla’s now infamous slow start. By February the winger had only scored two goals in 28 games, dating back to the previous season. Though the Flames would flirt with the .500 mark for the rest of the year, it soon became apparent to GM Jay Feaster that the team was nowhere near as good as the organization hoped it would be, and the fire sale began.

First and foremost was the trade that everyone saw coming, yet nobody dared to believe, as Iginla was sent packing to Pittsburgh in a deal that gave the Flames a somewhat underwhelming return. Iginla was the face of the franchise for his 17 years in Calgary, and there could be no larger indication that the Flames were looking to turn the page on a new era. The Flames also shipped off one of their top defensemen in the form of Jay Bouwmeester to St. Louis, as it became apparent the rebuild was in full effect.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 14th
McKeen’s – 10th
Sports Forecaster – 12th
The Hockey News – 12th

12th – Edmonton Oilers
Despite missing the playoffs with a sub .500 record for the seventh year in a row, the season was not without it’s highlights. Franchise winger Taylor Hall had an exceptional year, finishing ninth in league scoring with a 16-34-50 stat line in 45 games. Jordan Eberle also showed flashed of brilliance, finishing third in team scoring with 37 points, behind a rejuvenated Sam Gagner, who scored 38.

The trio of Hall, Eberle and Gagner weren’t the only young guns to perform well, as rookies Nail Yakupov and Justin Schultz had excellent first campaigns. Finally, when it appeared that the Oilers were destined to miss the post-season yet again, GM Steve Tambellini was relieved of his duty and long-time organizational fixture Craig MacTavish was appointed to GM, with former Columbus GM Scott Howson brought in to replace MacTavish as Vice-President of Hockey Operations.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 11th
McKeen’s – 12th
Sports Forecaster – 7th
The Hockey News – 13th

11th – Dallas Stars
Last season for the Dallas Stars was a year to forget. In the previous offseason, the team invested in a multitude of players, hoping to make the playoffs for the first time in four seasons. Dallas traded for center Derek Roy and signed winger Ray Whitney, as well as legend Jaromir Jagr in an attempt by (former) GM Joe Nieuwendyk to reach the postseason and ultimately save his job. At the trade deadline, the team’s playoff hopes seemed like a long-shot due to a poor power play and the star of the team, Jamie Benn, missing the first seven games due to a contract dispute. At that time, they disassembled the team.

The Stars traded Jagr to Boston, Roy to Vancouver, and longtime captain Brenden Morrow to Pittsburgh. Together, these trades brought back a first and second-round pick and defensemen Joe Morrow from Pittsburgh, who was the team’s first round pick the previous season. A season that was supposed to be strengthened by the new acquisitions was lost due to injuries to core players and poor goaltending. The team finished 22-22-4, with 48 points. A team loaded with draft picks then began to look towards the future in what seemed like a rebuilding process from top to bottom.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 10th
McKeen’s – 5th
Sport Forecaster – 15th
The Hockey News -9th

10th – Phoenix Coyotes

On the ice, hopes were high for the 2013 edition of the Coyotes. After all, the team was fresh off of it’s first ever Pacific division title and Western Conference Final appearance. However, things didn’t really turn out that way, as the team once again struggled to score goals and missed the playoffs for the first time under coach Dave Tippet.

Offensively, the Coyotes were actually led by a defenseman in the form of Keith Yandle, who managed 30 points in 48 games. That’s a good total for a blueliner, but it points to the dearth of scoring talent in the lineup.Radim Vrbata was the highest scoring forward with 28 points in an injury-shortened 34 games. Contributing to the offensive struggles was the loss of the team’s leading scorer from the previous year Ray Whitney, who left via free agency. Still, the Coyotes weren’t much of an offensive threat the year before either, so what was the difference?

Goaltender Mike Smith was a revelation in 2011-12 and had a remarkable season that saw him finish 5th place in voting for the Vezina. Unfortunately, he couldn’t seem to match that performance last year, and the netminder saw his numbers regress somewhat dramatically. If you’re a team that struggles to score and your goalie can’t keep you in enough games, it’s not surprising when you find yourself outside of the top eight by season’s end. Add to that the drama and paranoia of a team in ownership limbo, and it’s a recipe for disaster. Ultimately the Coyotes finished 10th in the West and 21st overall.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 9th
McKeen’s – 11th
Sport Forecaster – 8th
The Hockey News -10th

9th – Columbus Blue Jackets
It was so very close. The Blue Jackets nearly pulled it off. They finished off the stunted 2013 season with an unlikely run that nearly landed them with the eighth and final seed in the crowded Western Conference. Unfortunately, close only counts in horseshoes and hand grenades.

The Blue Jackets finished with an overall record of 24-17-7 after losing their superstar forward Rick Nash to the New York Rangers via trade. Funny enough, that trade left the Rangers floundering for much needed depth and the Blue Jackets in a much better position on their forward lines. Also, Columbus can thank one Sergei Bobrovski for taking this team upon his shoulders most nights. The Number One Cop’s season was one from which legends begin. It was a performance that ended with the goaltender winning the Vezina Trophy and being considered for the Hart trophy as the league MVP.

They made the best trade of the deadline in bringing Marian Gaborik to the team. He looked like a new man, released from the hard-nosed brand of hockey he never quite fit in with and allowed to focus on creativity and scoring goals. As much as this move helped in the immediate, Gaborik’s arrival was more about looking to this coming season, to build on the progress that this club has made since the 2012 off season.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 15th
McKeen’s – 15th
Sports Forecaster – 14th
The Hockey News – 15th

8th – Minnesota Wild

The Minnesota Wild committed nearly $200-million to two players, yet struggled to find any traction in the regular season. It came down to the wire and it wasn’t until the very last weekend of the season before they clinched the 8th and final playoff spot in the Western Conference, edging out the Columbus Blue Jackets via a tiebreaker.

Defenseman Ryan Suter and forward Zach Parise were two of the hottest free agents last summer and the Wild snagged both of them, signing the two star players to identical 13-year, $98 million contracts. Suter, who was the top free agent amongst defencemen, had spent all of his seven past seasons with the Nashville Predators. Parise, the most sought-out forward in free agency, scored 31 goals and 69 points the season before with the New Jersey Devils.

In the first round of the 2012-13 playoffs, the Wild were struck by the injury bug before their series could even get started. Starting goaltender Niklas Backstrom injured himself during the warm-up of game one, forcing rarely used Josh Harding to take on the Chicago Blackhawks. In the series the Wild kept every game close, but ultimately the talent of the eventual Stanley Cup Champions shone through, and the end result was a first round exit in five games.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 8th
McKeen’s – 8th
Sports Forecaster – 4th
The Hockey News – 5th

7th – Detroit Red Wings
Last year we saw proof that Jimmy Howard can play without a safety blanket that was Nicklas Lidstrom. We saw that Red Wings defense can hang with the big boys. Last year we also saw a team that some said might not make the playoffs (and really it all came down to the last few games) take the current Stanley Cup champs to game seven. All in all, Red Wings had their fair share of struggles but the winning culture prevailed and the playoff streak stands at now 22 seasons in a row.

Some other highlights for me were the play of Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg, especially in the playoffs. Datsyuk and Zetterberg both had ridiculously clutch goals and in my eyes solidified their status among the Red Wings greats, not only as regular season point producers but as playoff performers. Gustav Nyquist has introduced himself to the Red Wings nation that may not have had a chance to see him play in AHL. With five points in 14 playoff games, the young kid showed great compete level and was able to produce in the limited ice time he saw. Another youngster we got a chance to see play was Tomas Tatar play on the big stage. He made an impact with four goals and seven points in 18 games.

Overall last season went a bit better than expected, yet still feels greatly disappointing as any season would when it ends with a game seven overtime loss. Oh, and the Magic Man got a three year extension to put the KHL rumors to bed.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 7th
McKeen’s – 6th
Sports Forecaster – 9th
The Hockey News – 7th

6th – San Jose Sharks

The 2012-2013 San Jose Sharks season ended up being an exciting one. Near the trade deadline, they shipped out forward Ryane Clowe to New York and defenceman Douglas Murray to Pittsburgh. These trades netted them a number of draft picks (including two second rounders in 2013), which would help them out in future trades on the draft day floor. In order to replace their contributions the Sharks would move later round picks for Raffi Torres and Scott Hannan. The Sharks went on to sweep the favored Vancouver Canucks in a shocking four game series and go head first into a battle against the Los Angeles Kings in the second round. Although San Jose fell to L.A. in seven games, it was a great series and one Sharks fans won’t forget. Although San Jose fell short one game of the Western Conference Finals, there is much hope going into this season.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 4th
McKeen’s – 9th
Sports Forecaster – 13th
The Hockey News – 6th

5th – Los Angeles Kings
They cast aside St. Louis in the first round thanks in large part to the play of Conn Smythe winning goaltender Jonathan Quick, who allowed only ten goals during the six game series. During the second round, Quick was again brilliant, allowing more than two goals once during a tight seven game series against San Jose, in which each team won at home.

However the King’s dominance at home failed them against the Blackhawks, who we all know would go on to win the Stanley Cup, as the eventual champs rather easily knocked of the former champs in five games.

Though a Western Conference final appearance is nothing to sneer at, the Kings were still disappointed that they weren’t able to become the first team to win back to back Cups since the Detroit Red Wings in 1997-98. There were however some individual highlights of note.

Anze Kopitar again proved himself a force to be reckoned with after 42 points in 47 games, and Jeff Carter was brilliant, leading the team in playoff scoring after notching 26 goals during the regular season. Young defenseman Slava Voynov emerged as a legitimate threat from the point (and perhaps for a future Norris contender) with a brilliant regular season that he followed up by scoring 13 points in 18 post-season games. And lastly is Quick, who had a worse than mediocre regular season, but had an absolutely brilliant playoffs that may have had him in Conn Smythe contention again, had the Kings made the Finals.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 2nd
McKeen’s – 2nd
Sports Forecaster – 1st
The Hockey News – 3rd

4th – St.Louis Blues
The St. Louis Blues started off the 48-game season rather slowly. Starting goaltender Jaroslav Halak battled injury problems the whole year while backup Brian Elliott was underperforming.

Coach Ken Hitchcock decided to seek help from their American Hockey League affiliate the Peoria Rivermen. 23-year-old Jake Allen helped solidify the Blues in net and showed the NHL what he was capable of by going 9-4 with a .904 save percentage. Elliott later bounced back from his conditioning stint to lead the blues to their second straight playoff appearance while Halak was now the number two in goal.

The Blues failed to defend their Central Division title but managed to finish fourth in the Western Conference. It was there were they were matched up against the team that had swept them in the 2012 playoffs, the Los Angeles Kings. Although the Kings had beaten the Blues in nine straight contests, St. Louis took the first two games of the series at home. St. Louis was in control. In a quick turn of events that Blues fans are all too familiar with, L.A. was victorious in four consecutive games. Once again, the Blues had suffered a quick playoff exit, which led General Manager Doug Armstrong to re-evaluate his roster in the offseason.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 3rd
McKeen’s – 1st
Sports Forecaster – 2nd
The Hockey News – 1st

3rd – Vancouver Canucks
The Canucks entered last season on somewhat shaky ground after reaching the Stanley Cup Final in 2011 followed by a poor showing in a first round exit at the hands of the Los Angeles Kings in 2012. Adding to the trepidation was franchise goaltender Roberto Luongo’s request for a trade, a request that proved to be a distraction all season long.
The season was not, however, without its high points. Captain Henrik Sedin became the franchise’s all-time leading scorer, surpassing Markus Naslund during a 45 points in 48 games season. His brother, Daniel Sedin, likewise had another (and unsurprisingly) solid offensive campaign with 40 points in 47 games.

It’s worth noting at this point that the only division the Canucks had a losing record against in 2013 was the Pacific. I don’t want to say that’s a harbinger of things to come, however their performance against the San Jose Sharks in the first round of last year’s playoff could be.

Frankly, it was an embarrassment for all involved. The Canucks were swept aside rather easily, showing little in the way of grit or determination until game four, and by then it was too late. They were simply outmatched by the Sharks in nearly every aspect of the game we call hockey. Daniel and Henrik Sedin, the team’s most dynamic offensive weapons, didn’t score a goal between them. The season ended not with a bang as they had hoped, but with a whimper.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 1st
McKeen’s – 3rd
Sports Forecaster – 6th
The Hockey News – 2nd

2nd – Anaheim Ducks
Nowhere in recent memory has the hiring of a new coach made more of an impact than when the Ducks dropped Randy Carlyle in favor of Bruce Boudreau in November of 2011. Under Boudreau, the Ducks had a massive turnaround in the second half of the 2011-12 season (though still missing the playoffs) that continued in 2013.

Anaheim got off to an absolutely blazing start, losing only three games in regulation through the first 29 contests, en route to the club’s first division title since 2007. All the credit can’t go to Boudreau alone, as a certain captain with a fat new contract named Ryan Getzlaf saw a turnaround in his game. The 28-year-old center picked up 49 points in 44 games to lead the offense, while the usual cast of characters (Bobby Ryan, Corey Perry, Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne) provided enough scoring to push the Ducks into the top ten for goals scored.

In goal, incumbent Jonas Hiller shared the starts with SEL veteran and 30-year-old newcomer Viktor Fasth. Despite the latter having better regular season numbers, Hiller got the start against the Detroit Red Wings in the first round of the playoffs. After finishing second in the West, the Ducks were heavy favorites over the Wings, who snuck into the playoffs by just a few points. While the Ducks had two chances to eliminate the Wings in games six and seven, they just couldn’t put Detroit away, largely thanks to a 1-3 OT record. One has to think with a few lucky bounces that Anaheim could (and probably should) have advanced, however the hockey gods are often cruel and they found themselves out of the playoffs too soon after their incredible regular season.

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 13th
McKeen’s – 14th
Sports Forecaster – 11th
The Hockey News – 11th

1st – Chicago Blackhawks
The Chicago Blackhawks started off the 2013 season in unforgettable fashion; they started off the year earning points in 24 consecutive games (a record of 21-0-3), which shattered an NHL record. During that stretch, they won eleven straight games, the most in franchise history.

Capturing the President’s Trophy for the first time since 1991, the Hawks were in the driver’s seat as they secured home-ice advantage throughout the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
Joining the Blackhawks in the final round of the playoffs would be the Boston Bruins. It was the first time two Original Six teams faced off in the Stanley Cup Final since 1979.
The sixth game would become one of the most unpredictable games in Stanley Cup Finals history. The Cup was prepared to be given out if the Blackhawks could seal the deal in Boston. However, the Bruins held a 2-1 lead with under two minutes remaining in the third period. Players on both teams were preparing for a Game 7 in Chicago to decide who would be crowned Stanley Cup Champions.

Bryan Bickell was not one of those players. He ripped a one-timer through Tuukka Rask’s five hole tying the game at two with 1:16 to go. Seventeen seconds later, the Blackhawks made history. A Johnny Oduya slapshot was re-directed by Marcus Kruger and clanked off the left post. Dave Bolland was the one to pound the puck into the back of the net with 58.3 seconds to go. TD Garden was silent as Boston fans watched the Blackhawks become the first team to win two Stanley Cups in the Salary Cap Era (since 2005).

Experts Predictions:

Max Vasilyev – 5th
McKeen’s – 4th
Sports Forecaster – 5th
The Hockey News – 5th

So, let us take a break here and we will take a look at the part two of this three part series where we will see how I, McKeen’s, Sports Forecaster, and The Hockey News have done in the east. Do not worry I will tally up the scores and predictions in a simple review with a spreadsheet type format to declare the winner. Last year format if you are interested can be found here

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