The Conference Formerly Known As The Big East looks to be, as a whole, the weakest of the BCS automatic qualifying conferences. In the wake of Syracuse and Pittsburgh departing for the ACC, Central Florida, Houston, Southern Methodist, and Memphis join the conference (hence the name change). On paper, in August, the one bright spot in the conference looks to be Louisville. But as every college football fan knows, things can change quickly once the games actually start.
Cincinnati Bearcats
The Bearcats return six starters on offense, including their entire offensive line. That line could be key, because RB George Winn (1,334 yards and 13 TDs as a senior) needs to be replaced. Ralph David Abernathy IV (366 yards/3TDs) looks to be the most likely candidate, but sophomore Tion Green and junior college transfers Rodriguez Moore and Hosey Williams will get a chance as well. 6th-year senior QB Brendon Kay took over for Munchie Legaux last season and will retain the starting job.
Six starters return to a defense that ranked 14th in the nation last year in points allowed. The Bearcats will stick with a 4-3 front under new head coach Tommy Tuberville. Among the defensive players to watch for is MLB Greg Blair, who was All-Big East last year and averaged over 10 tackles per game. Florida State transfer Jeff Luc could also be an impact player at the linebacker position. Returning seniors Devin Drane and Aaryn Chenault will lead what is, aside from them, a young defensive backfield.
Special teams remain a question mark for Cincinnati in a few areas. Last year’s starting punter transferred to Miami. Kicker Tony Miliano (17/22 last year) returns. Ralph David Abernathy IV has an impressive 25.8-yard average as a kick returner, but should he emerge as the top running back, will the coaches want to continue using him as a return man?
Prediction: This Bearcats group is not quite as talented as last year’s, but the conference alignment changes mean they play a much easier schedule. I’m going to be conservative and say they go 8-4, but I won’t be shocked if they pull out nine or 10 wins.
University of Connecticut Huskies
For the first time in several years, the Huskies have some predictability at quarterback, as Chandler Whitmer will presumably be the starter. Should Whitmer continue to throw interceptions at the rate he did last year (he finished the year with 16), red shirt freshman Casey Cochran could get a look. Junior RB Lyle McCombs, a freshman All-American in 2011, should help take some heat off of Whitmer, and there is good depth at WR as well. The offensive line is a concern, having allowed 33 sacks last season.
Last season’s defense may have been overlooked at times in light of the Huskies’ struggles on offensive. Uconn ranked 9th last year in yards allowed, yielding just 309.9 yards per game. However, the team is going to have to replace six starters from that defense, three of whom were taken in the NFL draft. Transfers Ryan Donohue (Maryland) and Graham Stewart (Florida) could help shore up the linebacker position.
On special teams, kicker Chad Christen made just 14 of 22 field goal attempts last year although he was more consistent late in the season. Needless to say, that ratio needs to improve.
Prediction: This is a team that could experience a big drop-off defensively. However, I think the easier schedule that comes with the realignment will allow the Huskies to go 6-6.
Houston Cougars
I’m expecting some entertaining games from this team. Last season they averaged 32.4 points and 479.6 yards of offense. QB David Piland threw for 2,944 yards (although his completion percentage of 57.1 needs to improve). Piland returns for his junior year to a solid though unspectacular group of receivers. Senior RB Charles Sims had 851 yards and 14 TDs in just nine games in 2012. Four starters return on the offensive line as well.
As impressive as the Cougars’ offensive numbers were, their defensive stats are disheartening. They allowed 36 points and 483 yards per game last season, and return just four starters. New defensive coordinator David Gibbs plans to stick with the four-man front. LSU transfer Trevon Randle could help shore things up at linebacker.
Houston needs to replace their starting kicker. Punter Richie Leone could handle both jobs next season, or freshman Ty Cummings could kick.
Prediction: Unless the defense improves drastically, 5-7.
Louisville Cardinals
QB Teddy Bridgewater should be in the Heisman discussion this season, and he has excellent receivers and running backs on his side. The main questions for Louisville on offense, provided that everyone stays healthy, are at center and left tackle, both of which will be filled by new starters.
The 2012 Louisville defense ranked in the lower half of the Big East in both rushing and scoring defense- so of course, they had two interceptions and three sacks against Florida in their Sugar Bowl victory. Nine starters return on defense, so expect better regular-season numbers this year.
Returns of both punts and kicks need improvement. The Cardinals struggled with both last season. Sophomore kicker John Wallace was 14 of 14 inside the 40 last season.
Prediction: Barring injury, I think this team has a real shot at going undefeated. The Cincinnati game on December 6th could be a must-see.
Memphis Tigers
Quarterback is still a question mark for the Tigers. Incumbent Jacob Karam seems to have the edge, but both red shirt freshman Paxton Lynch and last year’s backup Eric Mathews played well in the spring. At RB, both starter Brandon Hayes and backup Jai Steib return, with four freshmen to challenge them. Clemson transfer Joe Craig joins an equally deep group of wideouts. Three starting offensive linemen return.
Memphis led Conference-USA last year in total defense. That isn’t likely to happen this year in the AAC, but it’s a good sign nonetheless, especially since eight of those starters are returning. Among those starters are the Tigers’ leaders in sacks (DE Martin Ifedi) last season.
Memphis signed two kickers in their 2013 recruiting class. P Tom Hornsey is in his third season.
Prediction: 4-8
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Junior QB Gary Nova returns, having thrown for 2,695 yards and 22 TDs. The Scarlet Knights need Nova to be the consistent QB he was to start the 2012 season and not the one who threw 7 TDs and 13 INTs in their last six games. Rutgers has experience and depth at the receiver position, but must replace RB Jawan Jamison. Four starters return on the offensive line.
Only four starters return on defense: two ends, one linebacker, and one safety. The defensive line is the most experienced unit; senior DE Jamal Merrell leads all returning defensive players with 83 tackles and 5.5 sacks.
Punter Nick Marsh, a 5th-year grad student transfer from Utah, is expected to be the starter. Either Kyle Federico or walk-on Nick Borgese will kick.
Prediction: I’m fairly confident in Nova being more consistent, but the defense concerns me a bit. 8-4.
Southern Methodist University Mustangs
Former Texas QB Garrett Gilbert returns as the starter. Gilbert struggled early last season but improved down the stretch, presumably as he became more familiar with June Jones’ offense. Another former Longhorn, Traylon Shead, will likely be the starting RB. The Mustangs have multiple capable WRs, although not a single true standout. Aside from senior LT Ben Gotschalk, the offensive line is young and lacks experience.
Five starters return on defense for the Mustangs; however, none of them are linemen. Three of them are defensive backs, so pass defense, a weakness for SMU last year, should be better. Two starters return to anchor the line backing unit as well.
Both kicker Chase Hover and punter Mike Loftus return. Hover needs to be more consistent this season after going 18/29 on field goals, and just 3/10 beyond the 40.
Prediction: A respectable (for their first year in the AAC) 5-7.
South Florida Bulls
For the first time in what seems like an eternity, B.J. Daniels will not be the starting QB for South Florida. Daniels’ backup, senior Bobby Eveld, or sophomore Matt Floyd could start, or the coaches could turn to potential long-term answer Mike White. Someone, whether returning senior Marcus Shaw, juco transfer Michael Pierre, or a freshman, will need to step up at RB. There are several quality WRs on the roster, notably returning starter Andre Davis. The only other returning starters on offense are C Austin Reiter and RT Quinterrius Eatmon.
Seven starters return on the defensive side of the ball for new coordinator Chuck Bresnahan, most recently with the Oakland Raiders in 2011. The Bulls had major issues last year with regards to giving up big drives late in close games, and with turnovers (-19 differential). One player to watch will be Notre Dame transfer DE Aaron Lynch, a Freshman All-American in 2011. The line backing corps and the safety position look solid, with several starters back.
Kickoff man Marvin Kloss is expected to replace the departed Maikon Bonani on placekicks.
Prediction: This program is moving in the right direction. 7-5.
Temple Owls
Former QB Chris Coyer has been moved to halfback, and Clinton Grainger was inconsistent in replacing him last season. Junior Connor Reilly wasn’t a good fit for the spread option, but will be the starter in new coach Matt Ruhle’s system. No WR or RB has emerged as a true #1 yet. The Owls have good depth at both positions and could go with a committee approach. The offensive line looks as though it will feature a mix of veteran and inexperienced players.
Last season, its first in the former Big East, Temple ranked last in the league in several defensive categories. Six starters return, including all three linebackers and both corners. One player to watch is LB Tyler Matakevich, who was the Big East Rookie of the Year last year as a true freshman.
Paul Layton, a transfer from Albany, is expected to handle both kicking and punting for the Owls. Freshman Jim Cooper will provide competition.
Prediction: Temple is another school that should benefit from the easier schedule provided by conference realignment; however, they have non-conference games at Notre Dame and Idaho. I’m going to be generous and say 6-6.
University of Central Florida Knights
QB Blake Bortles threw for 3,059 yards and 25 TDs as a sophomore. He has several receiving threats around him, although junior J.J. Worton is the only returning starter. The running back position is open, with Miami transfer Storm Johnson most likely to fill it. Three starters return to anchor the offensive line.
The Knights’ defense allowed a mere 22.1 points per game in 2012, but just four of those starters are back. MLB Terrance Plummer, who led the linebacking corps in tackles with 108, is one of them. The defensive backfield should be in decent shape, with both CB Brandon Alexander and S Clayton Geathers returning.
Shawn Moffitt is expected to start as the kicker after going 10/14 on field goals last year. Someone will need to step up in the return game to replace Quincy McDuffie, last years national leader in average return yards.
Prediction: If any of the league newcomers are to step up and surprise, I expect it will be UCF. However, their non-conference schedule includes a road game at Penn State, and South Carolina at home, and their conference schedule includes Louisville on the road and Rutgers at home. I see them finishing somewhere between 6-6 and 8-4, so I’ll split the difference and call them 7-5.
Predicted Order Of Finish:
1. Louisville
2. Cincinnati
3. Rutgers
4. South Florida
5. Central Florida
6. UConn
7. Temple
8. SMU
9. Houston
10. Memphis
You can follow me @LastwordLindsay on twitter for your NCAA Football needs, and the follow the site @lastwordonsport while you are at it.
Interested in writing for LastWordOnSports? If so, check out our “Join Our Team” page to find out how.
Football fans…check out Thursday Night Tailgate Radio as hosts Chris Mascaro and Angelo Cane chat with current and former NFL and College players. NFL stars open up on TNT because they’re regular guys, without network influence. Access the show in the sidebar on our home page or by visiting their website at ThursdayNightTailgate.com. Learn more about the show including their upcoming schedule at their page at LWOS.
